Midterm Elections: Old, White Voters Hold Key

Every pollster, political pundit and media practitioner has weighed in on the nation's midterm elections.  Their predictions range from a Republican rout to a Democrat miracle.  But their forecasts are exercises in conceit because this election hinges on voter turnout, not on traditional polling results.  

Historically, fewer voters go to the polls during years when there is no presidential election.  This has been true since the 1840's reversing a trend when midterm elections typically lured more voters than presidential contests.  That changed when most states repealed laws requiring voters to own property.

In 2008's presidential election, 57.1 percent of the voting-age populace cast ballots.  That was the highest level in four decades. Two years later for the midterms, 36.9 percent of the voting-age population trekked to the polls as the GOP reclaimed the majority in the House of Representatives

Voter turnout slipped to 53.7 percent in the 2012 presidential election.  Pew Research, which conducts extensive voter surveys, has predicted that "a lot fewer people" will vote this midterm than did in 2012.  If their estimate proves accurate, then Democrats are likely to take a beating at the polls.

Brown University researcher Brian Knight in a recent paper concluded the falloff in voter turnout for midterm elections usually benefits the party that does not hold the White House.  He calls it a "presidential penalty" as voters use the mid-terms to express dissatisfaction with the Oval Office holder.

That cannot be good news for Democrats because in the most recent polls President Obama's approval ratings have tumbled to new lows.

As Knight's research indicates, the president's party almost always loses Congressional seats in the midterm elections, regardless of approval ratings.  Since 1842, the party of the president has dropped seats in 40 of 43 midterm elections.  The lone exceptions were the midterms of 1934, 1998 and 2002.

Some political observers claim the Republicans have a built-in advantage in turnout in the midterm elections.  Their rationale is based on exit polling data that reveals midterms attract older and white voters to the polls in disproportionate numbers.

For example, in the last midterm election in 2010 exit polling shows that 21 percent of all voters were over the age of 65.  By comparison, seniors comprised only 17 percent of voters in the 2012 presidential election.  Voters under the age of 30 cast just 12 percent of the votes in the last midterms, but represented 19 percent of those who cast ballots in the presidential election.

The key for Republicans: in the last midterms 61 percent of those 65-and-older voted with the GOP candidate.  

Republicans also have done better with whites in the midterms.  For instance, in the 2010 midterms House GOP candidates captured 62 percent of the white vote, while Democrats got 38 percent.  In the presidential election of 2012, Democrats did better with whites, winning 60 percent of their votes in Congressional races.

This midterm racial gap favors Republicans because turnout of whites is proportionately higher than non-whites, according to exit polls compiled by The New York Times and CNN.  To underscore the point, whites represented 72 percent of all voters in the presidential election, but accounted for 77 percent in the 2010 midterms.

Forget the current polling data.  Winners in next week's midterms will be decided by voter turnout. If the past is any indication of this election, then Republicans will enhance their majority in the House and will narrowly capture the Senate.  If that happens, the GOP likely will have old, white voters to thank for their victory.

However, if the turnout skews differently than past midterms, then all bets are off.