The Obama Effect: Republicans Gain Control

After the election of Barrack Obama in 2008, the national media pronounced final rites for the Republican Party.  Pundits declared the GOP was too white, too old and too out-of-step with America to appeal to voters.  It turns out reports of the party's death were premature.

Since President Obama pranced into the White House, the Republican Party has arisen from the ash heap of defeat to the height of domination.  The GOP today controls 56 per cent of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats.  Thirty-two of the nation's 50 governors are Republicans.

On the national level, Republicans have majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.  Democrats once controlled the majority of the local and state elected offices and ruled the two legislative branches in Washington.  The decline has reached epic proportions.

How bad have Democrats fared since the coronation of Mr. Obama?

Consider since 2009, Democrats have lost 910 state legislative seats. The party once dominated both chambers in 27 state legislatures.  Now the number has skidded to 11, the lowest since 1978. The party has conceded 12 governorships, 69 seats in the House of Representatives and 13 Senate seats.

Despite the historic gains, the media continues to portray the GOP as the party that preaches hate, bigotry and misogyny.  It is the party in decay, according to the media cabal.  The reality is Democrats have suffered their worst string of defeats in decades.  Call it the "Obama Effect."

There are a few inescapable conclusions that can be drawn from the voters rejection of the Democratic Party.

Despite fawning media support, Mr. Obama's purported popularity with voters has never been an assest to Democratic office seekers.  His endorsement has had little impact in the majority of races, except in heavily Democratic states.  His coattails don't stretch beyond the D.C. Beltway.

In fact, many Democratic candidates distanced themselves from the president in the most recent mid-term elections.  Mr. Obama was uninvited by a host of Democrat candidates involved in tight races, especially in districts where neither party held a clear majority of registered voters.

Yet the latest Gallup Poll finds 47 percent of Americans approve of the job Mr. Obama's doing.  At the same point in his second term, Bill Clinton's rating was 59 percent.  Bush's numbers plunged to 32 percent and his unpopularity led to a thrashing of the GOP in the 2008 elections.

The suspicion has been that Mr. Obama's polling numbers are padded by voters reluctant to negatively rate the first African-American president. Privately people may express misgivings, but publicly critics are afraid of being branded a racist.  It raises questions about the veracity of polls.

To state it another way:  the polls may not accurately reflect Americans' feelings toward Mr. Obama. He likely is not as popular with the electorate as the polls suggest, despite his two-term victories against unimposing GOP candidates.  

Flawed polls don't entirely explain the nosedive of the Democratic Party.  There are a couple of other factors in play.  One is the overwhelming unpopularity of Mr. Obama's signature health care plan. Democrat candidates have been forced by their GOP opponents to defend the scheme with voters.

More often than not it has spelled disaster for Democrats.  In last week's gubernatorial race in Kentucky, a decided underdog Republican Matt Bevin ousted a popular Democrat by duck-taping him to the Obamacare reform.  Ironically, the polls had the Democrat well ahead on election day.

A third explanation is one the national media will never report. Republican solutions to issues are resonating with voters.  Many GOP candidates are hammering home the message of less government, lower taxes, economic growth, tighter borders and expanding school choice.

These traditional GOP themes are supposedly out-of-fashion with voters. The media cartel has dredged up polls, pundits and academics in a propaganda campaign to suggest Americans favor more government, expanded welfare, free college, open borders and higher taxes on the rich.

Their clarion call has not swayed voters.  Democrat defeats have been lost on the current crop of party presidential candidates who continue to preach archaic ideas that have been soundly rejected in state and local races.  That does not portend well for Democrats chances next November.

All signs point to a Democratic Party trouncing next year.  Modeling developed by the Reuters news organization shows that the incumbent president's party is less likely to hold onto the office unless the current occupant's popularity is 50 percent or higher.

History is also on the side of Republicans.  Democrats have failed in four of their last five attempts to win three consecutive terms in the White House, the lone anomaly being President Franklin Roosevelt. Historically, voters usually tire of the ruling party after two terms and change horses.

All the evidence points to a Republican resurgence.  Just don't expect the mainstream media to acknowledge the reversal of fortunes for the GOP.