Iowa Post Mortem: Presidential Race Shake-Up

Iowa hosts America's first in the nation presidential primary but the results of caucus voting may be the least reliable yardstick of a candidate's chances of winning the party nomination.  Iowans are predominantly white, zealously religious and socially conservative.  Not your average voters.

For those reasons, it has been hazardous for political pundits and Washington insiders to put too much stock in candidates who emerge victorious in Iowa, a state of only three million people. Past winners in the Hawkeye State, such as Rick Santorum in 2012, have wilted long before summer.

Putting aside the results, this year's contest produced telltale signs of the direction of the shifting political winds in both parties.  A detailed analysis of exit polls and voter profiles indicates the races are far from settled and it could be a long slog before the primary winners are crowned.

Here are a few takeaways from Iowa that could rattle the establishment bigwigs in both parties:

Ted Cruz Turns Out Winner

The Texas senator was not given much of a chance in Iowa.  His stance on ethanol subsidies was unpopular with farmers.  The sitting governor told Iowans to vote for anyone but Cruz.  He was unmercifully attacked by the state's leading newspaper.  Yet Cruz wound up winning more caucus votes than any Republican in history, confounding the news media and pollsters.

Cruz garnered strong support from evangelicals, very conservative voters and so-called "values" caucus goers.  He attracted majorities of young people and middle-aged and older caucus goers, out dueling the other Republicans among these key demographics.

But Cruz's secret weapon was his organizational juggernaut. That advantage will keep him in the race in every state because the campaign proved it can motivate voters, resulting in the largest Republican turnout in Iowa history.  In primaries, turnout matters most.

Rubio Is The Shiny New Thing

The Florida Senator, who trailed badly in the early Iowa polls, roared into third place within a few votes of former front runner Donald Trump.  Exit polls showed Republicans considered Rubio the most electable in the field by a wide margin (44% to 22%) over Cruz.

Moderates and non-ideologue conservatives gave the edge to Rubio. He lost only among strong conservatives, where Cruz bested the Floridian by a three-to-one margin. Rubio's showing in Iowa burnished the senator's statute and fueled a media bandwagon effect.

Long term, if Jeb Bush finally pulls the plug on his $100 million dispirited campaign before the Super Tuesday primaries, Rubio will lay claim to the so-called establishment financial gravy train. That could be the game-changer that vaults Rubio into the lead.  But if Bush soldiers on, it damages Rubio's ability to build a war chest to match Cruz.    

Trump Tumbles From Lofty Perch

After leading the polls for months, Donald Trump barely eked past Rubio for second place.  Exit polls found Trump won wide support among those with a high school degree or less and with senior citizens (65+). He finished third in most other demographic categories, including age and education. This does not portend well for his campaign.

But the worst news of all was that the Iowa vote exposed his weakness of a lack of ground troops to make telephone calls, knock on doors, hand out campaign literature and to cajole supporters to turn out at the caucuses.  Trump's loyalists, many of them political novices, packed his tent-revival rallies, but failed to show up at the caucuses.  This kind of "soft support" may cost him dearly in the upcoming contests.

The Rest of the Pests

After the Iowa caucuses, GOP candidates began dropping like flies. However, too many contestants ignored their poor showings and opted to plow forward.  After New Hampshire, the winnowing should increase. The crowded field is not helping the party reach a consensus before the convention. Time for Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich and Ben Carson to bow out.

Hillary Claims A Pyrrhic Victory

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary "Goldman" Clinton nosed out challenger Bernie Sanders by a coin flip. Five to be exact.  The bizarre ending gave her a two-delegate edge over Sanders and prompted the Des Moines Register to opine that "something smells in the Democratic Party."  The influential newspaper called on the party to "act quickly to assure the accuracy" of the outcome.

The clouded victory for Clinton was the least of her worries.  The former Secretary of State lost the male vote to Sanders and narrowly won females by a nine-point margin.  However, women under 45 gave a slight nod to Sanders.  That is a sobering development for Clinton's long-term chances.

Even more discouraging for the Clinton campaign, Sanders captured 84 percent of the youth vote (ages 17-29) in the exit polling by CBS News. President Obama would not have won the last two presidential elections without fawning support from Millennials.  Clinton's tepid approval among this demographic may be her eventual undoing.

For Sanders, Iowa represented a victory.  Polls have him with a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, where the Vermont Senator enjoys a home field advantage. After that primary, Sanders will have to switch tactics and attack Clinton's character or he will be a faint memory by summer.

After the New Hampshire primary, there may be more clarity but it is unlikely either party will be any closer to establishing a clear favorite to win the nomination.