Monday, November 7, 2016

What Trump's Election Means

Political insiders, pundits, well-heeled lobbyists and pollsters were dead wrong.  They were certain Hillary Clinton would win the presidency in an epic landslide.  Americans would never elect Donald Trump, a man they spent 18 months dismissing as unfit to occupy the Oval Office.

The problem is every single one of these know-it-alls is out-of-touch with real Americans.  The inside-the-Beltway crowd talks only to each other.  Meanwhile, out in fly over country, those bitter clingers who had been mocked by the media were spoiling to rewrite electoral history    

An anti-establishment tide was sweeping America and none of the political big shots took notice. Americans no longer considered the media mainstream.  There was palpable anger against institutions, including Wall Street, giant banks, global corporations and the federal government.

Americans had no love for the hidebound cliques who dominated both political parties.  Their distrust fueled two anti-establishment candidates, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.  Republican and Democrat barons pooh-poohed their chances and connived to keep them from primary victory.

Democrats rigged the primary to deny Sanders.  Republican emperors savaged Mr. Trump and his supporters.  The lords of the GOP had surrogates working behind the scenes to crater the Trump campaign to no avail.  They never recognized their base had changed right before their eyes.

Make no mistake: this victory by Donald Trump was a rejection of the Washington establishment and everything it stands for.  Americans of both parties are sick and tired of being ignored, taken-for-granted and being flimflammed by special interests who sway decision-making in Congress.

Equally as important, Mr. Trump's election means there are new rules for winning the presidency. Rule number one: money isn't everything. Ms. Clinton outspent her opponent nearly 100-to-one, raising a record $1 billion in campaign cash.  Money can no longer purchase the White House.

All those bucks are needed to pay for waves of political advertising. Political consultants worship negative advertising aimed at smearing the opponent.  This time it didn't work.  Ms. Clinton owned television, but her vicious ads were ineffective especially in swing states.

The conventional political calculus has always been that a ground game wins general elections. Door-knocking, robot calls, yard signs and political store front offices were supposed to be an advantage. The political nobility chuckled that huge candidate rallies were nothing more than eye candy.

Mr. Trump proved his unconventional approach to campaigning not only attracted crowds, but energized voters to turnout.  By comparison, Ms. Clinton spoke at half-filled venues speckled with unenthusiastic automatons.  That should have been a red flag to anyone paying attention.

Mr. Trump's win also deals a blow to pollsters and their research. Americans have been brainwashed by the media about the science of taking the temperature of voters.  Polling is fraught with errors, especially when the results can be skewed by those conducting the research.

Campaigns will continue to use polling, but they would be well advised to place little faith in the results.  There is no substitute for hearing from real people, face-to-face.  Fewer people are even willing to talk to telephone researchers, which renders traditional polling methods obsolete.

The election results also smashed to smithereens the hollowed cliche no candidate can win the presidency without the Latino and African-American vote.  Eight years ago the political elite were convinced white voters no longer mattered.   The "white" GOP was history.

It turns out white voters still make up 73.5 percent of registered voters. They remain the majority. Ignoring that reality is political folly. Demographics are changing and at some point the numbers may shift, too. However, right now minorities remain the minority.

The biggest loser this election was the media cabal.  Every newspaper and television outlet conspired to influence voters by tilting news coverage in favor of Ms. Clinton. It utterly failed. Traditional media has lost its political clout.  Social media and cable news are the new political kingmakers.  

Honest historians, an oxymoron if there ever was one, should reach two conclusions about the 2016 election.  Voters renounced the establishment and signaled that the old political formula is no longer relevant.  Change is sweeping America, but few in the political intelligentsia saw it coming.

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