Self-Driving Cars: No Longer Science Fiction

Self-driving cars, piloted by computers and guided by GPS, were once considered a gee-whiz phenomenon with limited practical usage.  There were too many safety concerns for autonomous driving to ever be sanctioned.  Those issues are receding, paving the way for automated cars.

That represents a dramatic shift from just three years ago when the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) urged states to ban driverless-cars from their roads.  The agency has since softened its stance and test trials are underway today in four states and the District of Columbia.

Today the move toward autonomous driving vehicles seems irreversible. Ford's CEO Mark Fields predicted last year that his company planned to offer fully self-driving automobiles by 2021.  The vehicles will be manufactured without a steering wheel or pedals.

Other car makers are joining the stampede to debut self-driving cars and light vehicles.  Toyota, BMW, General Motors, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz and, of course, all-electric car manufacturer Tesla have announced plans to produce and market vehicles which require no human involvement.

Not only traditional car manufacturers have answered the clarion call for automated driving. Tech titians Google and Apple are busy designing autos that are basically a computer on wheels. Many believe these new entrants may have a decided technological advantage over traditional car makers.

With this much momentum,  there is no longer any doubt that the future of human travel is self-driving vehicles.  Safety concerns remain and not all the tests have gone flawlessly.  However, the math is squarely on the side of removing humans from the driving equation.

First and foremost, more than 38,000 people die annually in road crashes.  An additional 2.35 million are injured and disabled.  Highway and road accidents cost the United States $230.6 billion per year, according to the Association for Safe International Road Travel.

Even if there are crashes involving driverless cars, the worst case scenarios forecast a precipitous drop in fatalities.  Almost all the accidents on American roads are caused by human error, safety experts agree. Distracted driving has become an epidemic, thanks to technology and cell phones.

Beyond safety, there are other numbers that argue for a future without human driven vehicles. Government and industry figures show the numbers of elderly and disabled are rising each year. Many get behind the wheel of a vehicle every day, endangering themselves and others.

Licensed drivers over the age of 65 have increased by 20 percent in the last decade.  And their numbers are growing.  By the year 2030, 70 million Americans will be over the age of 65 and the majority will be driving, reports the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Beginning at age 75, drivers are increasingly involved in fatal crashes. They are 17-times more likely to die in auto accidents than 25-to-64-year-olds, the AAA reports.  These statistics often are cited by care givers and adult children to force seniors to give up their cars and their independence.

Disabled drivers face the same hazards as the elderly.  There are about 57 million disabled people living in the United States, according to the latest U.S. Census.  Most report difficulty seeing, hearing and engaging their legs and arms.  Yet many still drive, thanks to laws that bar discrimination.

Wouldn't the roads be safer and people more empowered if the elderly and disabled could maintain their independence and still travel in cars? The answer is a resounding, "Yes."  Some worry that the result may be more cars on the nation's already cramped highways and streets.

Currently, the Bureau of Transportation counts 254 million passenger and light vehicles registered in the country.  But one of the advantages of autonomous driven cars is that the vehicles can navigate more efficiently through traffic than those operated by humans, decreasing bottlenecks.

Some forecasters predict the advent of driverless cars will actually reduce personal automobile ownership.  People will opt to use driverless services providers, such as Uber and Lyft, because the costs will be less than owning, insuring, parking, maintaining and fueling your own automobile.

Think about it.  Your grandchildren may never own or drive a car.

No doubt that today's driverless cars are not quite ready for prime time. There are still issues with technology that allows cars to constantly send and receive wireless signals from other vehicles.  But enough money and effort is being invested by large companies to overcome these obstacles.

There is a revolution over the horizon that will disrupt the automobile industry and change the nature of car ownership. This development will usher in the most significant transformation of transportation since the invention of the automobile.