Monday, January 1, 2018

Nearly Always Correct Top Ten Predictions

The venerable Farmer's Almanac will celebrate its 200th birthday next year.  With the exception of the Bible it may be the oldest continually published material on Earth.  As has been its tradition, the Almanac annually issues its weather forecast for the new year.  2018 is no exception.

Using an undisclosed formula based on the moon and tides, the official Almanac weather prognosticator has decreed that 2018 will be a normal winter for most of the United States, except in the East and Central parts of the country.  Heavy snows are predicted in January for the East.

More often than not the Almanac's forecasts are right.  Not the same can be said for the annual predictions posted on this page throughout the years.  But that will not deter your crystal ball gazing journalist from issuing his Top Ten Predictions for 2018.

The stock markets will roar for much of 2018 before getting the jitters in the fourth quarter after the Federal Reserve tinkers with rates amid concerns over early signs of inflation and the tightening of labor supply. The Dow still finishes at a record 26,100 despite volatile swings.

Tax cuts begin rippling through the economy as consumer spending rises and corporate investment climbs, helping the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to exceed 4.0 percent growth in at least three quarters of the new year.  Annual growth tops 3.6 percent.

With the elimination of the Obamacare mandate, enrollment in the exchanges dips, fewer insurance firms serve markets and Medicaid costs skyrocket.  Faced with the financial collapse of the federal plan, Congress approves a new health care initiative. 

Republicans increase their majorities in the House and Senate in the midterms, defying political tradition which usually means losses for the party in power.  A robust economy, increased hiring and pay raises convince voters to reward the GOP.

With consumer adoption of Amazon's Alexi and Google Assistant, more devices in business, the home, retail and the automobile will be equipped to handle voice commands to execute tasks and interact with customers, including kiosks at airports.   

North Korea's madman Kim Jung Un launches a ballistic missile that accidentally strikes land or an airliner, bringing the world to the brink of war before the Chinese government orders thousands of troops to the border with North Korea to force a regime change.

Despite rising interest rates and increases in inventory, sales of new homes leap eight percent over 2017, edging into record territory.  More Millennials opt out of their apartments to purchase homes as ownership increases to 65 percent.     

The biggest political fight in Congress turns out to be welfare reform, instead of building the wall along the border with Mexico.  Democrats walk out in protest as Republicans approve measures that bolster work-for-welfare provisions that were weakened under Mr. Obama.

The battle over Sanctuary Cities reaches the Supreme Court which rules 5-4 that Washington has the right to withhold certain funds if municipalities do not cooperate with the federal government on deportation and arrests of illegals charged with crimes. 

Special Counsel Robert Mueller drags out his investigation of Russian Collusion until after the mid-term elections in hopes the Democrats will reclaim the House and impeach the president based on his findings.  When Democrats fail, Mueller issues a report claiming some figures in administration ( but not the President) attempted to obstruct justice. 

If you think predicting the future is easy, make your own list and email it to drewroy@swbell.net and we will compare results at the end of 2018.  Whatever the outcome, it is unlikely any of us can match the Farmer's Almanac's record of accuracy.  

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