Analysis of Democrat Presidential Race

Democrats worst nightmares might be coming to fruition.  With Super Tuesday looming on March 3, frontrunner Bernie Sanders frightens the Democrat establishment because of his full-throated socialist agenda.  Now there is speculation that Democrats may be hurtling toward a brokered convention.

Neither scenario bodes well for the Democratic Party's chances to reclaim the White House.  After a disastrous start to the primary season with the Iowa caucus debacle, Democrats had to be shaking their heads wondering what else could go wrong.  The answer is Senator Sanders heading the ticket.

After winning the popular vote in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders vaulted into lead on the strength of a stellar ground game.  Sanders has no trouble recruiting young volunteers to staff his statewide campaign offices.  The 78-year old also draws the largest and most enthusiastic crowds.

Many Democrat voters are not spooked by Sanders' endorsement of socialism.  A 2019 Pew Research Study found nearly two-thirds (65%) of Democrats have a somewhat positive or very positive view of socialism.  Republicans and GOP leaning independents are diametrically opposed: 84% against. 

Money is usually a strong indicator of the staying power of a primary candidate.  Just released Federal Election Commission figures underscore Sanders' appeal.  He raised $107.9 million in the latest reporting period, far outdistancing his primary rivals.  Sanders is not going away.

Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, a virtual unknown a year ago, surprised pollsters by nipping at the heels of Sanders in the first two contests.  The Buttigieg campaign has steamrolled more well known opponents and has attracted better educated, upper income voters.

However, national polls show that among African-American Democrats only one percent back his candidacy.  If those polls are accurate, it spells trouble for Mayor Pete.  He will face tough sledding in upcoming primaries in which African-Americans are a larger share of Democrat voters.

In a national presidential match, a Democrat cannot win the Oval Office without high African-American voter turnout and a sizable margin over Mr. Trump  That leaves the Democrat establishment in a quandary because Buttigieg, like Obama in 2008, is a needed fresh face.

Buttigieg is polished, articulate and media friendly.  All assets Obama enjoyed in 2008.  Buttigieg also raised $75 million in the latest quarter.  He is the darling of Hollywood and Silicon Valley.  Both have shoveled millions of dollars into the Buttigieg campaign.

Rising political star Sen. Amy Klobuchar's stock is soaring after her third place finish in New Hampshire.  She represents the moderate lane in the party race.  Her strategy of a laser focus on the first two contests paid off.  But her campaign may be derailed by lack of funds.

Among the top tier candidates, she raised the lowest amount of money, $28.7 million in the recent quarter.  That was less than Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren and Biden.  She and Buttigieg are competing for the same big donors, who prefer a progressive without the socialist baggage.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren's campaign is cratering. Although she raised $81.7 million, she has underperformed in the opening round. After the woeful New Hampshire showing, he has turned more strident.  If she drops out, the chief beneficiary will be Sanders, who shares common views.

Former Vice President Joe Biden needs to throw a Hail Mary pass.  His campaign is flagging and donors are beginning to have doubts about his chances.  Biden is pinning his hopes for a jumpstart in Nevada and South Carolina primaries.  The states appear to be friendlier territory for Biden.

However, the latest Quinnipiac Poll finds Biden's support among African-Americans is eroding in South Carolina. That does not bode well for a comeback.  Plus his campaign is haunted by disappointing defeats.  Voters often are influenced by early results when they go to the polls.

Biden entered the race with a huge advantage in name recognition and his past association with the Obama presidency.  Neither have proven enough to woo the majority of Democrat voters who are looking for a populist candidate who will shake up Washington.  He represents the status quo.

Biden also suffered collateral damage in the impeachment trial.  Democrats aimed at Mr. Trump but struck Biden, whose son Hunter's affiliation with a corrupt Ukraine gas firm received glaring attention during the trial.  The mainstream media tried a blackout of news coverage to protect Biden.

It failed because social media was ablaze with juicy conspiracy theories and catty comments about the Bidens.  Although no Democrat will ever admit it, Biden's reputation was sullied.  Clever Buttigieg defended Biden in a debate, which only called more attention to the Biden imbroglio. 

When the inevitable happens, a Morning Consult Poll shows Sanders is the top second choice for Biden supporters with 27% claiming they would vote for the senator.  Fully 35% of Warren voters indicate they will switch to Sanders.  Assuming both drop out, Sanders will solidify his lead.

When former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg leaped into the race, there was early chatter about him claiming the middle ground and uniting the party.  Recent revelations about Bloomberg's views on minorities and crime have all but crippled his opportunity to ride his billions to the nomination.

That isn't Bloomberg's only achilles heel.  He is a billionaire in a candidate field that preaches disdain for the wealthy.  He is a solid but uninspiring campaigner.  Bloomberg lacks charisma that even money can't buy. He is anathema to the socialist wing of the party. Can he overcome his shortfalls?

But make no mistake about it.  Bloomberg is the Democrat establishment candidate.  His campaign has just recently unleashed ads attacking Sanders' supporters, a dubious tactic that could backfire.  For all the fawning over Bloomberg, he has yet to prove he can win a single primary.

Super Tuesday represents the last remaining test for Sanders.  Fourteen states will hold primaries, including delegate-rich Texas and California.  A total of 796 delegates will be at stake.  If Sanders emerges with the most delegates, his challengers will face daunting odds.

That leaves Democrats staring at the likelihood that Sanders will have bagged the most delegates prior to the convention in Milwaukee in June.  The question is: Will he have enough delegates to anoint him the presumptive nominee before then?  The prospect of a brokered convention portends.

If there is a brokered convention, where the frontrunner is short of securing the nomination, history suggests the eventual winner will be too bloodied to win.  The most recent brokered convention occurred in 1984 when Walter Mondale eventually won the nomination and then lost in a landslide.

Party purists are jittery about embracing Sanders, who runs for office in his home state of Maine as an Independent eschewing the Democrat label.  Knots of Democrat House representatives and senators openly worried about the down ballot effect of Sanders in a recent New York Times article.

All that said, Democrats are wary of denying Sanders the nomination. In 2016 after Sanders lost the nomination to Hillary Clinton, his voters were dispirited by what they viewed as a rigged system against their candidate.  As a result, most stayed home on election day.

Alienating Sanders and his base will create a chasm in the Democratic Party.  If another candidate emerges as the nominee, there is a real threat his supporters will remain on the sidelines. This is Sanders' last shot at the presidency.  A snub might compel him to run as a third party candidate.

The current Democratic Party dilemma may sound familiar to Republicans.  Not so long ago in 2016 the GOP establishment was bonkers about the prospect of Trump at the top of the ticket.  Although he drew the largest crowds, he wasn't conservative enough, a former Democrat and anti-establishment.

Grudgingly, old guard Republicans accepted the reality that he would be the nominee and abandoned efforts to sabotage his candidacy. The Democratic Party could learn a lesson from this.   Denying Bernie Sanders the nomination through skulduggery will likely sink the Democrat ship.