Reopen Economy To Save American Lives

Now's the time for the American economy to be unplugged from the ventilator.  Without decisive action, the U.S. will plunge into the abyss of an economic depression that will ruin far more lives than Covid-19.  The longer the lockdown continues the country risks plummeting into financial ruin.

There are growing signs that Americans are fed up with the quarantine.  Protests are popping up in many cities.  For example, in Michigan thousand gathered to protest sweeping restrictions imposed by the governor.  Americans yearn to return to their jobs.  Politicians are starting to take notice.

A growing number of governors are contemplating reopening for business. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has announced a gradual plan to allow workers to return by Friday.  If it happens, there will be domino effect across the country.  States that remain shutdown will face criticism from voters. 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has raised impossible hurdles to any lifting of the lockdown.  She and other Democrats are demanding a "guarantee of a safe world" before returning to normalcy.  No doctor, scientist or politician can make such a guarantee.  The world, by nature, is not a safe place.

Governors understand better than Pelosi the inherent risks. They are staring at data that suggests an economic Armageddon will bankrupt their states. Even states whose economy was booming before the outbreak are not immune from an epic disaster for their workers.

At the current pace, COVID-19 will trigger the worst economic collapse in U.S. history.  Whole industries are on life support:  Travel, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, oil, hotels, tourist operators, cruise lines, conventions, food and beverage service and virtually every small business in America.

Small businesses under 500 workers, which employ half of the American workforce, are particularly vulnerable.  Most operate on a razor's edge between profitability and insolvency. The new Small Business Administration loan program will help cover some expenses but only about 50%.

Loans will not cover payments due suppliers, maintenance and loan repayments from previous borrowing. By some estimates, these small businesses generate 44% of the country's Gross Domestic Product, a measurement of economic output.  Many are in danger of permanent closure. 

Corporate furloughs are at historic levels.  Macy's has furloughed most of its 125,000 workers.  Boeing plans "voluntary" layoffs to slice its 160,000 workforce.  Walt Disney has furloughed 43,000 employees.  J.C. Penny is cleaving most of its 85,000 workforce. Furloughs will soon turn to layoffs.

The Department of Labor calculated a record-shattering 22 million Americans have applied for unemployment in the last four weeks.  For perspective, at the worst of the Great Depression there were 15 million unemployed.  In the 2008 financial meltdown, unemployment peaked at 9 million.

The current situation is unprecedented in American history. A stunning 13.25% of the workforce has disappeared from the rolls of the employed.  The country is losing 33,000 jobs every hour of every day right now.  Based on unofficial figures, experts estimate the current unemployment rate is 16%.

Unemployment is the tip of the iceberg.  Credit card companies and banks are holding their collective breaths in the face of a expected wave of defaults.  These institutions are extending credit for now, but at some point, borrowers will be required to repay.  Economic freefall will make it impossible.

At this juncture, household and business debt are already at historic highs.  Delinquency on student and auto loans is skyrocketing.  The spectre of a financial pandemic is real.  If you thought the last $700 billion government bailout in 2008 was unfathomable, just wait a few more months.

Economists are predicting the Gross Domestic Product will shrink by 25%-to-50% in the second quarter.  Any rebound depends on consumer spending, which represents about 68%-72% of the economy.  Bloated unemployment data offers little hope for an uptick in consumer spending.

That's causing hand wringing among states because economic decline equals less tax revenue.  An economic collapse will force steep government budget cuts. An even larger issue is state worker pension funds, estimated at $1.2 trillion in obligations.  Most state plans are underfunded now.

The American financial system is precariously nearing the precipice. Even the U.S. government cannot print enough money to paper over the looming disaster that will all but render a recovery a moot point.  These are dire times but most Americans are unaware of the scale of the consequences.

All the focus in the media has been on the toll of the virus and rightly so.  But workers have been forgotten in the stampede to staunch the virus.  No one appears concerned about what will happen to everyday, ordinary Americans.  This has been deliberate, especially by the mainstream media.

The nation is in uncharted territory.  The U.S. has never, repeat never, voluntarily shuttered business activity, even in world wars or during past pandemics.  Those experts predicting a sudden, rapid economic recovery are fool hearted.  A long, painful road awaits the economy and its workers.

No one, certainly not this journalist, is underestimating the risks of opening up America.  Precautions need to be in place: testing kits, thermometers, masks, appropriate distancing.  The timing should be dictated by scientific and economic experts, not by politically motivated guidelines in newspapers.

In states where the virus is scarcely present, people should be allowed to go back to work, open up shops and congregate in churches.  Wyoming, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and South Dakota come to mind. On the other hand, New York and California may need months before normalcy returns.

Some will read this and assume your writer has no empathy for the sick and dying.  Believe as you wish.  The real concern here is that by continuing a lockdown America will be forcing millions more than this virus affected to suffer lost of jobs, homes, cars, life savings, credit access and more.

Yet some politicians are huffing the country needs to remain in quarantine until a vaccine is readily available.  That could be months or even more than a year away based on the record of vaccine development for previous coronavirus contagions.  In a year, there will be no American economy.

Presidential candidate Joe Biden famously said this: "We need to accelerate the development and treatment (sic) of a vaccine.  Science takes time."  The nation does not have time to wait on the FDA and scientists to plod along using endless trials before approving any new drug or vaccine.

No one can deny there are risks to resuming commerce.  A second wave of virus cases.  A spike in hospitalizations.  Fatalities may continue.  There simply is no way to erase every risk no matter what criteria the nation uses for business resumption.  Even a zillion tests will not eliminate every risk. 

This isn't a choice between commerce and saving lives as some would construct it.  This is a choice about the best way to spare lives and prevent unparalleled economic agony.  It is not an either or proposition as politicians suggest.  Why can't we have both? We have done it before.

Of course, when the initial state resumes business the media will pounce on the first virus death that occurs.  The cry will be the governor has "blood on her (or his) hands."  This hyper partisan nation knows no shame. Ignore the politicians and media invested in promoting economic bondage. 

When this virus recedes into history, the prediction here is a day of reckoning is coming when American anger turns on politicians, especially governors and mayors who dictated arbitrary  restrictions that defied common sense.  The uproar will be thunderous and will have repercussions.