Why Data Is Critical To Arresting Coronavirus

An increasing number of scientific studies shedding new light on the Coronavirus are raising doubts about previous assertions the pandemic is far deadlier than seasonal flu.  While it is still too early to make a definitive call, the evidence should trigger a reassessment of how data is compiled.

The studies, conducted by two universities and New York, reveal far more people may have contracted the virus than official reports of confirmed cases.  In Los Angeles County, for example, a sample discovered an infection rate 40 times more than the cases reporting from testing results.

For some, the research will not sway their opinions about the steps taken by the government to deal with COVID-19.  But data matters when a nation is dealing with an infectious respiratory virus.  Without credible data, how can hospitals and states act responsibility to take precautionary measures?

An analogy would be investing in the stock market with limited or contradictory data about listed firms.  Inevitably it would lead to poor decisions, the kind that empty your bank account.  In much the same way, data is the most important tool for effectively dealing with a pandemic.

Let's start with the three recently released studies.  A study from the Stanford University School of Medicine as of April 1 found that infection rates for northern California were 55 times higher than the official confirmed cases count.  The study was based on 3,000 blood samples taken from volunteers.

The samples were tested for antibodies to COVID-19 using a test made by Euroimmun.  Based on the data and modeling estimates, the researchers estimated that the infection fatality rate was between 0.1% and 0.2%.  The death rate for seasonal influenza in the U.S. is 0.1%.

Another study released by University of Southern California (USC) unearthed similar results.  Using parallel methodology to the Stanford study, researchers estimated the number of infected people in Los Angeles County may have been 28 to 55 times higher than the reported confirmed cases.

On the heels of these findings, New York Gov. Anthony Cuomo announced the state's first survey shows that 13.9% of those tested had Coronavirus antibodies in their system, meaning they had contracted the virus and recovered.  That suggests 2.7 million people statewide had been infected.

That number is far higher than 134,824 cases that had been reported at the time the governor made the results public.  What this study and the two from California suggest is that virus is not as lethal as has been previously reported by health officials but is far more infectious than scientists suspected.

Another factor raises suspicions about current data.  Some states are counting COVID-19 deaths differently than others.  For instance, the Pennsylvania State Health Secretary reduced the fatality toll by 200 in a single day.  The official reason was to reduce "confusion" around the death count.

A California scientist believes some states are diagnosing patients with the virus AFTER they have entered the hospital for another disease.  If the patient succumbs, the cause of death may be the virus or the underlying disease.  It is a judgment call based on no universal standards.

For perspective, in the 2017-2018 flu season, 79,400 people died. There were 48.8 million people infected, requiring 959,000 to be hospitalized.  Those numbers are higher than today's COVID-19 figures. No one should take comfort, however, because COVID-19 continues to spread.

Now that research is piling up the scientific models produced by experts are quietly disappearing from the Internet.  The one estimate that sparked the panic predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S.  This same model projected 500,000 fatalities in the United Kingdom.

It was done by a respected authority, Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London.  Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered a lockdown of the country based on this data.  This is why credible data matters. It drives decision making.

As data evolves, we are seeing a familiar influenza pattern.  Exactly 80% of the deaths have been people 65+ years. The highest percentage are those 85+. Those 65 and older are 22 times more likely to die of the virus than those 55 and under, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Deaths in nursing homes and long-term care facilities for the elderly haven't generally been tracked by the CDC or other health organizations, which is odd considering the first outbreak occurred in a nursing home outside Seattle. The Wall Street Journal investigated and uncovered startling details.

At least 4,800 nursing home facilities in the country have been hit by the virus, the Journal reported. The number of people infected, including residents and staff, totals more than 56,000.
The number of deaths at nursing homes and long-term care facilities have topped 10,000.

In some states, the nursing home deaths account for most fatalities.  In Minnesota the Journal reported a state health care spokesperson acknowledged that 131 of its 179 total deaths were linked to long-term care facilities.  In Massachusetts, 55% of COVID-19 victims were nursing home residents.

The Journal's numbers were developed by contacting state officials across the country.  Many states did not have the data.  It begs the question:  "How can you stop a pandemic when there is no data to document where urgent testing needs to be concentrated?"  There is no excuse for the lapse.

There are other statistics that have not appeared in any media that offer perspective.  These may surprise some of you because it illuminates a different way to view this virus and its impact:

Percentage of Americans of who have died from the virus: 0.0001352602033%
Percentage of Americans with confirmed cases of the virus:  0.00243353907%

That means 99.9% of Americans have escaped infection and death. The news media would infer your writer takes the current pandemic too lightly.  Facts do not represent an opinion.  If facts offend people, then the country is lost.  Today's journalists fight facts with anecdotal evidence.

There are breaking news alerts each time pandemic fatalities cross another milestone number.  Someone should be asking: "Is this more deaths than previous pandemics?" It is akin to reporting traffic deaths monthly without any comparison to previous years.  Context is essential.

And finally: Percentage of all U. S. confirmed cases in just three states: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut:  45.3% By demanding tests in every state, precious testing kits were dispatched elsewhere when the most pressing needs were in three states. Facts matter in allocating resources.

In times of crisis, the country needs more data, facts and analysis.  If these outbreak teaches the country nothing else, it should be that we need accurate, standardized data collection and improved modeling.  These are essential for policy makers to conceive informed decisions.