Airlines are flying into headwinds, stirring thunderous passenger turbulence. Thousands of flights are cancelled, leaving travelers stranded for days at a time. Flight schedules are routinely scrambled. Airlines are scrapping routes. Flight delays are a daily occurrence. Turmoil shakes the skies.
The downdraft in airline performance is documented by Department of Transportation data. Year-to-date, 430,444 U.S. flights have been delayed, a 250% increase from 2021. A staggering 76,776 flights have been scrubbed, a 253% rise. On-time performance is its lowest level since 2014.
Snarled flights are a nightmare for Americans ready to resume vacations after two years of pandemic bondage. Hikes in travel bookings should be good news for airlines which weathered two years of crippling losses totaling nearly $200 billion. Instead it has created wind shears for airlines.
In the midst of this bumpy ride, passengers are paying more for worst service. In the last year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for airline tickets rose 25%, the largest jump since the Federal Reserve of St. Louis began tracking in 1989. High prices and uneven service are unnerving passengers.
The main issue for U.S. and global airlines is a shortage of pilots. U.S. airlines are scrambling to hire 13,000 pilots this year, more than double the previous annual record. For perspective, the industry hires about 5,000 to 7,000 annually, according to United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby.
The pandemic exacerbated the shortage by scuttling new pilot training and hiring, while triggering a wave of early retirements. Despite a $100 billion government bailout, which included $54 billion for benefits and wages, the big commercial carriers offered pilots early retirements to cut labor costs.
After a wave of offers, American Airlines lost 5,400 pilots; Delta 2,000; and United 450, plus 1,750 were furloughed. Airlines are now poaching each others pilots, with higher salaries and benefits. To stem losses, pay for senior pilots at United Airlines now top $450,000 annually.
Easing the shortage will be practically mission impossible. About 5,5773 pilots a year are hitting the mandatory retirement age of 65 each year. The number reflects the aging of the pilot labor pool. Seniority pay and benefits encourage pilots to work until retirement.
Normally, the big carriers fill jobs by recruiting pilots from the cockpits of regional airlines. However, the number of regional pilots has dwindled from its peak of 19,000 to about 14,000, draining the talent pool of pilots for the large carriers.
To retain pilots, American recently extended 50% pay premiums for regional pilots through August, 2024. The military, a source for trained pilots, is struggling to find aviators. The Air Force reported a shortage of 1,650 aviators at the end of 2021.
The Federal Aviation Administration, which certifies new pilots, handed out an average of 6,500 certificates annually in the past decade. When the virus disrupted training programs, there were fewer certificates issued in 2020 and 2021. Regional airlines are career entry points for newly minted pilots.
The prognosis for solving the pilot shortage is cloudy. There is industry momentum for raising the retirement age to 67, a bandaid solution. Regional carriers are petitioning the Federal Aviation Administration to reduce the standards for flight hours by 50% for new pilots.
Both proposals raise safety issues which regulators have so far frowned upon. It means the pilot shortage will continue at least through 2029, according to industry executives. The problem won't be helped by the fact the U.S. carriers will lose about half of its pilots to retirement in the next 15 years.
Although it's hardly comforting, the U.S. isn't the only nation dealing with a dearth of pilots. Europe has not only faced pilot issues, but labor strikes and understaffing at airports. London's busy Heathrow Airport asked airlines to curtail schedules as mountains of baggage could not be handled.
Unless airlines can reach smoother air, travelers may soon decide it is not worth the hassle to fly. That would be a downburst to an industry recovering after two years of financial disaster. The carriers must act with urgency and innovation to recruit and train the next generation of aviators.
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