Top 12 Predictions For 2022

Annual predictions are not for the easily offended. Skeptics scoff. Political partisans pooh-pooh.  The Intelligentsia sniff:  prognosis is a job for pros, not mortals. Few critics dare to tiptoe on the forecast limb.  Such is the weighty yoke shouldered by those who peer into the future and divine destiny.

For those interested in your prognosticator's accuracy, look under the archive tab on the far right side of the current blog and click on 2021. Scroll to the bottom and you will find last year's Top 12 Predictions. An unbiased reckoning (mine) will find that at least nine forecasts were (mostly) correct. 

Compare your columnist's record to stock market forecasters whose estimates are always rosy and wrong half the time.  Or to economists who regularly err but leave wiggle room, just in case their conjecture veers off course.  Or political pollsters and pundits whose dismal record speaks for itself.

What about the politicians and  health officials who boldly predicted Americans could resume their normal lives in 2021?  How did that work out?  And don't get me started on meteorologists.  Most weather forecasters cannot accurately predict the weather beyond the next 30 minutes.     

Fact is foreseeing the future is an imprecise science that requires a heaping spoonful of luck and a pinch of skill.  That explains why prognosticators often issue updates throughout the year, praying no one will remember their original premonition.  Your fearless seer gets one shot.  And this is it.   

Here are the Top 12 Predictions for next year.  

1.  A red wave swamps Democrats in the mid-terms as the GOP picks up 69 seats in the House and two in the Senate, earning majorities in both halls of Congress.  After the thunderous defeat, Democrats convince President Biden to announce he will not run for president in 2024.

2.  Inflation worsens in the first quarter because price increases have been baked into the costs of goods due to rising producer expenses.  Wages continue to tick up, but inflation hits 7.9% in the first quarter, wiping out real gains in income. Inflation vaults to the top issue in the mid-terms. 

3.  Because it waited too long to taper purchases of Treasury notes and hike interest rates, the Fed finds itself in an election year pickle.  It raises interest rates twice but the Fed stalls the planned third increase as spikes in mortgage rates and credit card interest curtail consumer spending. 

4.  A 22% increase in stock markets since the end of last year has inflated prices for many equities, especially SPAC's which come under fierce scrutiny from the SEC after values plummet.  Markets are roiled by elevated volatility, but equities rise a combined 13% in the three leading indices.

5.  Blockchain, a decentralized database to generate and store records, expands beyond crypto currency applications as the technology is adopted for solutions in the energy, health care and banking industries.  The open and secure system attracts record business investment.

6.   The Gross Domestic Product, a measurement of economic health, continues to skid downward, ending the year with an annualized growth of 2.9%.  First quarter figures signal sustained economic expansion, however, growth stalls as lockdowns cripple business recovery.  

7. Real estate prices keep surging next year, escalating by 14% nationwide, a drop from the scorching hike of 19.5% in 2021. Prices is some cities jump even higher, but uncertainty in the mortgage market triggers a construction slowdown in many locations as inventory grows.

8.  Omicron, the variant that provoked a nationwide panic, begins to fizzle at the end of the first quarter with few fatalities despite skyrocketing cases.  The variant proves to be a blessing, conferring natural immunity on millions as the pandemic morphs into an endemic by yearend.

9. Amidst the boom in electric vehicles, China increases its monopoly--now 85%-- of rare earth elements, including many critical in the manufacturing of batteries: lithium, copper and cobalt. China embarks on a buying spree, snapping up mines in Africa, South America and Afghanistan. 

10.  The hybrid work from home (WFH) model gains little traction as more workers prefer to live in locations far from big city offices. With labor shortages in technology and digital industries, firms scrap the hybrid and offer WFH as a benefit to fill critical job vacancies.   

11. Intensifying cyber attacks on energy, medical institutions and governments by state actors  under the control of Russia and China cause so much chaos that one Western government brands the intrusions as acts of war, raising the stakes in the cyber security battle.

12. TikTok, the Chines- owned video app, comes under increasing Congressional criticism as investigations expose its algorithms flood minors with videos about sex, drugs and eating disorders. Despite the disclosures, the administration rejects calls to ban the app.

Let the second-guessing begin.  Bring in on.  However, the last word belongs to those whose vision withstands the test of 12 months.  Print and save this column.  Then compare these predictions of those of the pros at the end of 2022.  The outcome may surprise you or humble your columnist.

Whatever happens, be assured another set of predictions will be issued at the end of 2022.  Your blogger has learned the secret of other prognosticators: if you make enough forecasts you are bound to hit a few. 

Nearly Always Correct Top Ten Predictions

The venerable Farmer's Almanac will celebrate its 200th birthday next year.  With the exception of the Bible it may be the oldest continually published material on Earth.  As has been its tradition, the Almanac annually issues its weather forecast for the new year.  2018 is no exception.

Using an undisclosed formula based on the moon and tides, the official Almanac weather prognosticator has decreed that 2018 will be a normal winter for most of the United States, except in the East and Central parts of the country.  Heavy snows are predicted in January for the East.

More often than not the Almanac's forecasts are right.  Not the same can be said for the annual predictions posted on this page throughout the years.  But that will not deter your crystal ball gazing journalist from issuing his Top Ten Predictions for 2018.

The stock markets will roar for much of 2018 before getting the jitters in the fourth quarter after the Federal Reserve tinkers with rates amid concerns over early signs of inflation and the tightening of labor supply. The Dow still finishes at a record 26,100 despite volatile swings.

Tax cuts begin rippling through the economy as consumer spending rises and corporate investment climbs, helping the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to exceed 4.0 percent growth in at least three quarters of the new year.  Annual growth tops 3.6 percent.

With the elimination of the Obamacare mandate, enrollment in the exchanges dips, fewer insurance firms serve markets and Medicaid costs skyrocket.  Faced with the financial collapse of the federal plan, Congress approves a new health care initiative. 

Republicans increase their majorities in the House and Senate in the midterms, defying political tradition which usually means losses for the party in power.  A robust economy, increased hiring and pay raises convince voters to reward the GOP.

With consumer adoption of Amazon's Alexi and Google Assistant, more devices in business, the home, retail and the automobile will be equipped to handle voice commands to execute tasks and interact with customers, including kiosks at airports.   

North Korea's madman Kim Jung Un launches a ballistic missile that accidentally strikes land or an airliner, bringing the world to the brink of war before the Chinese government orders thousands of troops to the border with North Korea to force a regime change.

Despite rising interest rates and increases in inventory, sales of new homes leap eight percent over 2017, edging into record territory.  More Millennials opt out of their apartments to purchase homes as ownership increases to 65 percent.     

The biggest political fight in Congress turns out to be welfare reform, instead of building the wall along the border with Mexico.  Democrats walk out in protest as Republicans approve measures that bolster work-for-welfare provisions that were weakened under Mr. Obama.

The battle over Sanctuary Cities reaches the Supreme Court which rules 5-4 that Washington has the right to withhold certain funds if municipalities do not cooperate with the federal government on deportation and arrests of illegals charged with crimes. 

Special Counsel Robert Mueller drags out his investigation of Russian Collusion until after the mid-term elections in hopes the Democrats will reclaim the House and impeach the president based on his findings.  When Democrats fail, Mueller issues a report claiming some figures in administration ( but not the President) attempted to obstruct justice. 

If you think predicting the future is easy, make your own list and email it to drewroy@swbell.net and we will compare results at the end of 2018.  Whatever the outcome, it is unlikely any of us can match the Farmer's Almanac's record of accuracy.  

Top Ten Predictions For 2017

An English prophetess with a shadowy past is an appropriate patron saint for modern day soothsayers.  This sorcerer was known as Mother Shipton, although that wasn't her real name, and her prophecies were appallingly inaccurate or otherwise discredited.

Born about 1488 as Ursula Southell, this medieval prognosticator was credited with writing a pamphlet that predicted the Great London Fire.  However, critics claim her manuscript refers to another catastrophe: the lack of liquor in downtown London.

Apparently, Mother Shipton confused the destructive inferno of burning buildings with fire water (alcohol).  It can happen to the best of oracles. With that in mind, your scribe offers these predictions for 2017:

The Dow Jones Average flirts with 21,000 in the second quarter before dipping below 20,000 and rallying in the final quarter to end the year at 20,887.  Rising interest rates, weak top-line growth at major companies and an unsettled global economy tamp down enthusiasm for a break-out market.

After eight years of no uptick in interest rates, the Federal Reserve finally emerges from its cocoon and announces two increases in 2017 as the economy improves.  Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen comes under attack from Republicans, who accuse her of playing politics by failing to tinker with rates during the Obama presidency.

A year after the United Kingdom's vote to exit the European Union, the nation's politicians continue to slow-walk negotiations with their continent partners before announcing plans to hold another election on the issue.  The decision ignites protests across England and the current prime minister is forced to stand for election.

On-board intelligent voice control becomes the new must-have feature in automobiles, replacing today's add-on systems.  Ford becomes the first auto maker to introduce features in its cars that allow the driver to do everything from lower windows, set the cruise control and initiate turn signals using voice commands.

A disgruntled FBI agent releases documents showing the investigation of Hillary Clinton's email server was compromised by interference from the Obama Department of Justice.  The revelation sparks calls for reopening the probe, but recalcitrant Republicans urge the new Attorney General to drop the matter.

America's economy as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) finishes the year at 2.9 percent growth, the highest in eight years. The economic comeback is spurred by the growth in small businesses, particularly those in the Internet economy.

President Trump butts heads with Republicans over his signature issue of immigration reform, prompting some in the House of Representatives to call for the ouster of House Speaker Paul Ryan. The contentious issue involves how to deal with illegal immigrants currently residing in the United States.

After eight years of hailing the nation's financial recovery, the mainstream media suddenly unleashes stories about the lousy state of job growth in the United States, blaming President Trump for being too distracted by plans to build a wall on the southern border.  The media will point to statistics about the falling Labor Participation rate and the anemic increase in job creation.

A major cyber attack on the White House communications system rattles the nation, finally raising a red flag about the failure of the country to harden its IT infrastructure against malicious hackers. Initially, intelligence community officials point to Russia, but the culprit turns out to be a cyber gang operating in Iran.

Eighty-three-year-old Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, an outspoken critic of Donald Trump, becomes seriously ill but refuses to resign.  After months of speculation, she dies in office, leaving two vacancies for the new president to fill during his first term.  With the naming of two justices, President Trump stamps the court with his own brand of judicial temperament.

Like Mother Shipton's visions, these predictions may also wind up being derided by historians with the hindsight of time.  But at least for today, the forecasts have not proven to be inaccurate, something the good mother could appreciate if she were still around.

Top Ten Predictions for 2016

There is something about the dawning of a new year that reveals the Nostradamus hidden in many of us.  Everyone from political pundits to economists weigh in with forecasts and predictions for the upcoming 12 months.  Most prognosis turn out to be erroneous, but thankfully, quickly forgotten.

If he were alive today, Nostradamus might be amused by the number of imitators who issue prognostications.  In his day, the 16th century French philosopher, who studied astrology and various occult sciences, had few disciples.  It wasn't until after his death that he found fame.

Claims have been made over the years by ardent apostles that Nostradamus predicted everything from the rise of Adolph Hitler to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in the more than 6,338 prophecies he penned in a number of volumes.

Unlike the prolific Frenchman, these annual predictions will be limited to ten.  However, in the spirit of Nostradamus, this year we confess to using unscientific tools, such as Ouija boards, crystal balls, hallucinogenic mushrooms and a spiritual seance, to aid in the prophecies.

1. After a long bull run, the Dow comes thudding down as rising interest rates, a strong dollar, the spiraling junk bond crisis and a soft global economy weigh on U.S. stocks.   The Dow finishes at 16,600 after another roller coaster year, exacerbated by an all too familiar tech bubble. Without the Federal Reserve propping up the market, stocks suddenly look pricey causing investors to flee for the exits.

2. For the eleventh straight year, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) under performs, finishing at 2.4 percent.  U.S. economic growth has not reached the 3.0 percent benchmark for a robust economy since 2005, the longest swoon in the modern era. A strengthening dollar, slower demand for resources and global economic weakness, especially in China, will undermine America's economic comeback.

3. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 0.25 points in the first quarter of the new year, but then drops plans to increase the key standard any further because economic signals are flashing yellow.  By year's end, the Fed rate is 0.50 percent instead of the 1% chairwoman Janet Yellen had predicted. The anemic stock market also weighs on the Fed's decision.

4. With smartphone penetration levels rising to all-time highs, the big manufacturers, like Apple and Samsung, branch out into new businesses.  Competition and price-cutting squeeze margins, leading the major players to launch a buying spree.  Apple, with $200 billion in cash, will make a key acquisition to advance its goal of dominating the self-driving automobile market.

5. After years of dashed hopes and 413 unsuccessful clinical trials, a promising new drug appears on the market to slow the signs of Alzheimer's disease. There are 93 drugs currently in the pipeline as pharmaceutical firms invest millions in research to capture the mushrooming market created by the aging of America.  An estimated $226 billion was spent in 2015 for the care of Alzheimer's patients.

6. State-sponsored cyber attacks reach epidemic proportions, culminating with an attack on a power substation that shuts down electricity to an American city.  After years of warnings about the vulnerability of the nation's electric grid, the power disruption finally mobilizes the industry to harden their systems against cyber terrorist threats.

7. Crude oil prices briefly rise after the holiday driving spike, but the cost of a barrel ends the year at below $42.  Excessive stockpiles of crude oil, OPEC's increased production and booming U.S. oil exports produce a worldwide glut that keeps average annual prices at the pump below $2.05 per gallon.  Big oil companies begin lay-offs as profits slump and their stock prices tumble.

8. President Obama issues an executive order aimed at making it harder for Americans to purchase guns with stricter background checks and bans on some weapons, fueling a Second Amendment fight that goes all the way to the Supreme Court.  Mr. Obama's directive thrusts gun control to the front as an issue in the presidential election.

9. Iran is accused of breaking the nuclear agreement it signed by secretly increasing its supply of centrifuges and building a second underground facility.  President Obama demands the Iranians open their facilities to inspectors, but its leaders stall and equivocate. Meanwhile, Israel warns it will destroy the nuclear facilities if the world fails to act.  Russia threatens to retaliate for any attack on Iran.

10. The presidential race comes down to Democrat Hillary Clinton versus Republican Ted Cruz.   Donald Trump's lack of a strong field operation hurts turnout for the billionaire in the Super Tuesday primaries, forcing him to reconsider his candidacy.  With a superior organization, Cruz outlasts the field to win the Republican primary.  He picks North Carolina governor Nikki Haley as his running mate. Clinton opts for former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro.  After a nick-and-tuck electoral battle, Cruz emerges the victor by the narrowest of margins, but the GOP loses its majority in the Senate.

Like Nostradamus, your scribe may be a few years off on some of these predictions.  But at sometime in the future, they are bound to prove correct.  It is called the law of averages, the best friend of any prognosticator.            

Top Ten Predictions For 2014

Predictions are like health insurance policies.  Every American must have one in the New Year or cough up a fine.  Check that.  Pay a tax.

Nothing stings like a bite out of your income, so here are the predictions for 2014 from an insured healthy author who wants to avoid any human contact with the Infernal Revenue Service.

1. Obamacare enrollments fall woefully short of 7 million goal.  An estimated 4.1 million people sign up for health insurance through government exchanges.  Even that number is skewed because the figure only includes those who applied.  Many Americans learn in January that their applications were chewed up in the system and they are without insurance.

2. The Republicans capture control of the Senate.  After the mid-term elections the GOP emerges with a 55-45 advantage in the senate chamber.  Exit polling shows the unpopularity of Obamacare and distrust of the president are key factors in the Republican victory.  The Grand Old Party maintains an advantage in the House, assuring Obama's second term is a flop.

3. EU taxes savings accounts to fund bloated entitlements.   The European Union Commission follows the lead of Greece in levying a tax on savings accounts above $100,000 in the 34-member nations. Democrats in the United States float a similar plan after Obamacare costs exceed projections, prompting more borrowing and increased budget deficits.

4. Mortgage rates inch past 5 percent.  After a long run of low rates, interest creeps upward after the Federal Reserve tapers its bond buying.  The increase slams housing starts as prices flatline and sales flutter below 2013 levels. Many homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages scramble to avoid foreclosure.

5. The Dow dips below 16,000 before a year end rally.  After a four-year bull stampede, the stock market begins to flounder as interest rates climb, making bonds and certificates of deposit more attractive investments.  Without the Fed stimulus, investors worry that the market has been overvalued.  Puny first quarter profits from major companies exacerbate the rush for the exits.

6. Lois Lerner, the disgraced IRS official, resurfaces.  Lerner is the 34-year career IRS manager who "retired" after the scandal erupted over her overzealous scrutiny of conservative charitable organizations. Lerner reappears on the Washington scene as an employee of a George Soros funded organization.

7. Cash registers disappear in most big retail stores.  The advent of mobile payment devices advances from the trial stage to full blown deployment among large nationwide retailers.  More stores will have roaming employees armed with mobile devices to assist with in-aisle purchases.

8. Goggle Glass finally goes on sale to the public.  The head-mounted device, unveiled to much fanfare in 2012, makes its debut to cheers from the marketplace.  The product, ballyhooed and criticized in the test stage, becomes the must-have gadget for the tech savvy and millennials racking up sales of 7 million.

9. Smart watch purchases soar with improved applications.  The watches, basically wearable computers, add more features for health and wellness monitoring along with sports and fitness functions.  After tepid sales in 2013, more early adopters and the health conscious snap up the devices fueling sales of more than 6 million in the new year.

10. U.S. economic growth remains languid.  After a hopeful first quarter, the economy slides in last half of the year as mounting household debt, rising interest rates and slow personal income growth stymie consumer consumption.  The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ends the year with growth of 2.25 percent, a sign of continuing economic weakness.

As with any predictions, these forecasts come with no guarantees. However, there is one certainty. The year will be filled with more uncertainty than anyone could foresee.