Surging COVID Cases Spark Draconian Measures

As COVID cases flare like a rampaging California wildfire, a swarm of authoritarian governors are resorting to stringent infringements on personal freedoms in the name of health and safety. Many measures are clearly unconstitutional.  Others are inane with no basis in science.  

The restrictions come in the wake of harsh lockdowns that persisted from spring through most of the summer. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assured Americans that forced isolations would "flatten the curve," thus relieving the stress on health systems while slowing the virus spread.

Most Americans abided by the dictates.  Of course, there were isolated cases of brazen misbehavior.  The actions of a few should not condemn the majority. But it is also fair to point out that scores of protests, riots, sporting events and post-election political celebrations were also contributors to the insidious spread.  

Once lockdown constraints were eased, the virus ticked up while hospitalizations remained within acceptable occupancies as determined by powerful health systems.  But as the new rules loosened, COVID cases began a steady march upward, triggering Draconian abuses of power. 

Michigan's Democrat  Governor Gretchen Whitmer ordered gatherings in personal residences be limited to include people from no more than two households. New Mexico's Democrat Governor Michelle Lyan Gresham slapped a limit of no more than five people per residence for Thanksgiving gatherings. 

Oregon's Democrat Governor Kate Brown capped indoor gatherings in personal residences at six people, threatening to use police to enforce her dictum.  Other states, such as Massachusetts and New Jersey, are ordering restaurants and bars to close between 10 p.m. at 5 a.m. based on whims not science.

Here is an example of the kind of condescending comments from health officials in support of the autocratic governors from Dr. Mark Dworkin, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Illinois:

"Plenty of people will congregate (on Thanksgiving) and nobody will get sick and they'll go 'hah nah, fake news.' But there will be other families that will be devastated and it will be very bad for them.  If you want to play Russian roulette with COVID, that's your right, but I think it's foolish."

What is clear by these haughty pronouncements from elitists is they believe you are the problem.  Forget their scientific-approved lockdowns failed.  These hypocrites believe you need to be punished despite the fact most Americans are wearing masks, social distancing and practicing hygiene in public.

There is no 100% safe way for people to go about their daily lives even masked and socially distanced. Sheltering in place 331 million people for a year is a prescription for health problems at least as life-threatening as the virus. Every country emerging from mass lockdowns is experiencing COVID spikes.

The governors, instead of haranguing citizens, should be embarrassed by their own miserable failure to protect the most vulnerable individuals, despite their pledges to make it a top priority of their COVID response.  COVID deaths at nursing homes are accelerating in every state.

The latest CDC figures show 37% of all new Coronavirus fatalities are linked to the nation's 26,000 nursing homes.  A total of 46% of all hospitalizations are for people aged 65 and older.  The CDC reports  a staggering 662,000 nursing home patients have been infected this year. 

Why haven't the governors been held accountable by the media and health officials?  The answer is the media's incessant political weaponization of the virus.  Now the media puppeteers are riveted on climbing cases to raise fear.  New tactics include deceitfully raising doubts about the safety of vaccines. 

Meanwhile, there has been no mention that the United States is now testing an average of 1.7 million individuals every day, contributing to the rising cases.  Nearly 200 million Americans (181.1 million) have been tested for the virus or 56% of the population, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

Of those individuals tested for COVID, more than 145.6 million tested negative.  The CDC estimates about 40% of those who tested positive are asymptomatic, meaning they exhibit none of the usual symptoms (dry cough, fever, lost of taste, etc.).

Although hospital wards are deluged with patients, stays for COVID patients are falling nationwide. A study by the Mayo Clinic hospital in Rochester, Minnesota, found hospital patient stays now average five days, half as long as in March. The reason: hospitals are armed with better treatment options now.  

The current billowing rise in cases could have been predicted as the cacacoon lockdowns were lifted.  Returning to the dark days of sheltering in place will be difficult if not impossible to enforce.  If nothing else, the country's hospitals and health officials should have beefed up staff for the inevitable flood.

This latest round of infringements clamped on individual liberties by governors is fueling more lawsuits.  Most state and federal courts have so far declined to invalidate state and local restraints to combat the virus, except for a handful of narrow rulings on curbs. But the tide is shifting.

A recent decision by the U.S. District Court of the Western District of Pennsylvania struck down unconstitutional aspects of Pennsylvania's emergency COVID order limiting the size of indoor gatherings and demanding the "closure of all business that are not life sustaining." 

That was followed last week by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the restraints on religious freedom imposed by New York's Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo, who clamped restrictions on churches and synagogues,  limiting worshipers to 10 or 25 during the pandemic.

The plaintiffs in the case claimed Cuomo's order unfairly targets houses of worship while treating secular institutions less stringently and allowing designated essential businesses to operate without similar limits.  Other state governors have also scapegoated religion as an enemy of public health and safety.

"Even in a pandemic, the Constitution cannot be put away and forgotten," the SCOTUS majority (5-4) wrote in its opinion.  "The restrictions at issue here, effectively banning many from attending religious services, strike at the very heart of the First Amendment guarantee of religious liberty."

    

It is about time the courts stepped into the breach of constitutional freedoms by politically ambitious governors who believe unelected scientists provide the authority to allow the government to order what Americans can do in the privacy of their homes.  

All Americans want to protect themselves from this virus. The overwhelming majority have followed the public orders to the letter. Blaming them for the upturn in cases is just a way for politicians to distract  responsibility for their own pathetic decisions which have fallen short in protecting the most vulnerable. 

The COVID "Spike" Raises Alarm

A resurgence in the COVID 19 cases in the country has spooked health officials, the stock markets, restarted businesses and hospitals, triggering a knee-jerk reaction to put the struggling economy on a ventilator.  However, no one should be unsurprised by the the uptick with the ramp up in testing.

On March 25, the U.S. had conducted a cumulative total of 492,918 tests since the first test on February 28.  According to the latest data from The COVID Tracking Project the number of tests have soared to 23,984,592.  The average daily tests administered during the period rose 4,889%.

At the current daily run rate of 286,483 the country would test an additional 56.7 million Americans during the remainder of the year, raising the cumulative total to 80.6 million out of a total population of 326.7 million people.  No doubt the number of cases will climb right along with the tests.

The same politicians who were braying for more testing surely knew it was inevitable there would be a spike in cases.  This is particularly evident because the majority of testing has been done in vulnerable communities, such as prisons, nursing homes and businesses with large workforces.

Of the millions of tests, 9.6% of people are testing positive, which means the vast majority, 90.4%, have negative results.  And not all states are created equal when it comes testing results.  New York, the epicenter of the pandemic, and Texas represent dramatic extremes.

In New York state, 13% of those tested have positive results.  That means 1.9% of the state's population has tested positive. The state's fatality rate, based on the number of reported cases, is 6.4%.  A large portion of those deaths were patients in nursing homes and extended care facilities.

By comparison, less than one percent (0.67%) of Texans have tested positive for COVID.  Texas' death rate is 2.23% of reported cases.   New York, with 10 million fewer residents, has recorded more than 20% of the nation's fatalities, while Texas represents 1.7% of the national death total of 116,140.

Considerations for reopening businesses in the two states are undeniably different based on the data.  That is why it is best for the country that each state weigh the risks and set its own guidelines for reviving the economy and allowing people to return to their jobs. There should no single standard.

While acknowledging the surge in testing has spawned a hike in cases, it is illuminating to point out how the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reports confirmed cases.  There are two methods of testing used.  One is what's known as a viral test, which measures for a current COVID infection.

The second method is an antibody test, which evaluates if you have had a previous COVID infection.  The CDC scientists admit being flummoxed about what it means for immunity.  They don't know if  having the antibodies will prevent someone from contracting the disease again. 

The issue to consider is that those with previous infections are counted in the confirmed cases total, even though they have no symptoms and are disease free.  This inflates the number of cases but obfuscates the actual number of people with current infections who may require hospitalization.

On that point, despite the rise in confirmed cases, the CDC reported on June 16 that the overall visits to hospitals and urgent care facilities have remained stable "a low levels" for eight weeks in a row.  The current hospitalization rate is 89.3 patients per 100,000 infected people.

Of course, this is national data and the hospitalization rate varies by state.  But the highest rates are for people 65 years and older: 273.8 per 100,000.  This means the virus has not changed its profile since the outbreak began, impacting mostly those 65-years and older.

The CDC data exposes another fact about the expanded testing: there has been a jump in the number of healthy 18-49 year olds testing positive.  In the earliest stages, this age group accounted for less than 5% of the cases weekly.  Now these Americans account for nearly half of all new cases.

Updated figures from the CDC confirm those aged 18-44 now account for 41% of the total confirmed cases. (Editor's Note:  Different age brackets are used by the CDC in reporting data.  It is confusing, but nonetheless, accounts for this reference {18-44} being different than one cited above {18-49}.)

This represents a dramatic shift.  In the earliest stages before widespread testing, most people visiting hospitals and emergency rooms were experiencing symptoms.  They were overwhelmingly the elderly, aged 55 and above, many with underlying health issues.  It taxed hospital facilities.

Now that has changed. There is no reliable data on how many people tested are asymptomatic, meaning they show no signs of COVID symptoms.  If you can believe China's epidemiologists, testing in their country finds 80% of positive cases are asymptomatic.

Assuming those figures are accurate, that would mean of the 2,103,549 confirmed U.S. cases, the overwhelming majority of people, 1,682,839 were tested and found having an infection, despite showing no signs of the influenza like illness.

While no data exists, there is anecdotal evidence this phenomenon may be playing out in the U.S.  Recently, 22 young, healthy Clemson (S.C.) football players showed up on campus for the start of workouts. As with all returning athletes, they were tested and found to have COVID.

What we may surmise is that while the number of cases are climbing, the least vulnerable group, younger people, account for the sharpest increase.  This does not mean there is no concern because the young can infect those at most risk.  But it decreases the likelihood of upward trend in deaths.

Health officials concerned about the surge in COVID cases should be directing their public education at younger people, aged 18-49.  Instead one official wrote the "public a large" was "letting their guard down."  Most Americans are following the guidelines and deserve applause not a reprimand. 

Even as cases grow, the CDC reports seven weeks of a declining percentage of deaths from COVID. On June 15, there were 402 deaths attributed to COVID.  That data point may not be cause for celebration, but it is a far cry from he 16,153 fatalities recorded on April 18, the deadliest day.

One fact remains constant as the weekly deaths continue to fall.  Those 55 and older make up the majority.  On April 18, 93% of those who died were in that age bracket.  Months later on June 15, nearly the same number (91%) were counted among the fatalities. The median fatality age is 80.

By comparison, those aged under 45 years make up less than 5% of the country's COVID deaths. A recent study by Stanford medical professor John Ioannidis discovered that for "most" people under the age of 65, the risk of dying from COVID isn't much higher than "driving in a car to work".

To add more perspective, researchers at the think-tank Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity uncovered data that 42% of all COVID deaths in the U.S. have occurred in nursing and residential care facilities.  An estimated 2.1 million Americans are housed in these institutions.

Researchers based their finding on data from 39 states.  In at least 22 states, more than half the reported COVID fatalities were patients in nursing homes and other long term care facilities.  Only recently, the CDC has begun requiring states to report nursing home deaths. Before it was voluntary.

Extrapolating the data to the country, it would mean that of the 116,140 deaths 46,456 were patients who were infected in nursing home and long term care facilities.  And many health experts believe those figures are likely understated because of inconsistent state reporting protocols. 

In particular, older adults with underlying respiratory and cardiovascular conditions are at the greatest risk.  Data from the United Kingdom found 95% of the people who died had at least one underlying condition.  Public health officials in Italy reported 96% of deaths involved one chronic condition.

The data is unambiguous.  The elderly are the population that needs priority protection.  Younger patients, particularly those with no symptoms, will surely not require urgent care or swamp hospitals.  The biggest threat is these young people will unwittingly infect the most vulnerable. 

Scientists are still at odds over whether we are seeing a "second waves" of COVID cases or whether this is more likely part of the "original or first wave."  Influenza pandemics have historically struck in distinctive wave patterns with a second wave coming six months after the infections subside.

However, there are no guarantees this current pandemic virus will behave in the same manner.

That argues for no relaxing of vigilance and safety measures for the general public. At the same time, states and local governments need to continue to allocate more protective equipment to nursing homes and long term care facilities, while frequently testing the workers who serve the patients.

Protecting the elderly will assure America can safely reopen.  But young people also need to heed the guidelines.  Even as cases rise, America cannot afford to remain in lockdown mode for any longer without harming the lives and livelihoods of millions of its citizens.