Crime Data: Misleading Statistics

Questions are swirling around crime data in the wake of the deployment of National Guard members to the nation's capital. City officials claim murders have declined.  National data suggests all crime has shrunk. But how reliable are the numbers?  There is evidence the data is problematic. 

Pew Research Center analyzed data in an effort to answer the question: "How much crime is there in the U.S." Their answer: "It's difficult to say for certain." The two primary sources of government crime statistics--the FBI and The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)--paint an incomplete picture.

FBI reports, once the gold standard, is pocked with Swiss cheese holes. In 2019, 89% of municipal police departments submitted crime data to the agency.  To compensate for the incomplete data, the FBI estimated the missing municipalities crime numbers.  

In 2020, the FBI recorded a historic single-year increase in homicides of 30% in the aftermath of the George Floyd nationwide riots. There are some experts who believe the violent crime data that year was actually worse because big city police were swamped and reporting may have suffered as a result. 

The 2021 FBI data failed to improve. The bureau modernized its data collection system. Thousands of police agencies fell through the cracks. Only 63% of police departments submitted crime data, meaning 6,000 municipalities failed to report numbers. The FBI reported crime fell.   

Then in 2022, the FBI under Christopher Wray regrouped to right the data ship.  Pew reports 83% of police agencies participated. Two of the largest police departments in the country--New York and Los Angeles--were missing from the final FBI crime report. Unsurprisingly, crime declined.   

The FBI initially reported an estimated 1.7% decrease in violent crime. Later in 2023, the agency quietly revised the data, reporting a 4.5% increase in crime for 2022.  The FBI failed to include 1,699 murder, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies and 37,091 aggravated assaults--a staggering oversight.

The bureau reported 19,800 homicide victims in 2023.  The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued its cause of death data for the same year, counting 22,830 homicide deaths.  Its records are compiled from the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program provided by 57 jurisdictions. 

Last month the FBI issued its 2024 report from 16,419 police departments, still short of the 18,000 previously reporting crime data. Violent crime decreased 4.5%.  Leaving aside the issue of the veracity of the data, a violent crime occurred on average every 25.9 seconds somewhere in America.  

The Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is second only to the FBI in perceived importance. It is a national survey of about 240,000 people 12 and older.  Participants are asked if they have been a victim of a crime in the past six months.  The methodology obviously eliminates murder victims, an obvious flaw.

However, the NCVS is recognized as more accurate in capturing the overall picture of violent crime, which includes rape, robbery aggravated assault, robbery and manslaughter.   While the FBI reported decreases in 2021 and 2022, the NCVS data for the same period shows violent victimization rose 75%.    

Data from most sources depends on local police records. And that's another problem.  In Washington, D.C., the flashpoint for crime, the head of the Metropolitan Police Department's top union official claims higher ups are fudging the crime data by directing cops to downgrade felonies to a lesser offense,

The union boss Gregg Pemberton shared his accusations with NBC Washington.  The contention followed the police department's suspension of a commander in mid-May for allegedly changing crime statistics in his local district. No word on how widespread the practice is.  

Even though the nation's capital has recorded a 27% drop in violent crime this year, it still has the fourth highest homicide rate in the country, nearly six times higher than New York City.  The city has recorded 103 fatal shootings this year.  For comparison, there were 105 murders in 2014.

Chicago has been in the spotlight after President Trump threatened to send the National Guard to the Windy City.  Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has stiff armed any suggestion of federal assistance, pointing out homicides decreased by 7.3% last year, but still higher than pre-pandemic figures.

A University of Chicago Crime Lab report underscores the "persistent challenging patterns" of violence in the city.  Black residents are 22 more times likely to be killed compared to white residents. In some Chicago neighborhoods, a black person is 68 times more likely to be a victim of a fatal shooting.

And, while violent crime is down, the Crime Lab notes it is still higher than the five year average.  The primary contributors are soaring aggravated assaults, aggravated batteries and robberies, according to the Crime Lab. Since 2010, the rate at which shooting victims die from a gunshot has soared 44.9%.

You won't hear those numbers from the mayor, who has overseen the shrinking of the Chicago police force.  There are now fewer officers than the city had in 2018, a decline of nearly 13%.  In addition, Johnson has failed to deliver on a campaign pledge to add 200 more detectives, WGN reported.

The mayor's credibility took another hit Labor Day weekend when 58 Chicagoans were shot, eight fatally.  This underscores the issue in many large cities.  Crime may be down, if you believe the statistics, but it begs the question: How much crime is too much?

In many big cities such as Chicago, too many repeat offenders with long criminal records are arrested and freed without bail.  Failure to address this situation results in career criminals preying on the most vulnerable. Until district attorneys incarcerate thugs, systemic violent crime will continue.  

The credibility of crime data is not some conservative conspiracy as Democrats contend.  The Legal Defense Fund, a liberal group, called crime statistics "unreliable" because many crimes go unreported by victims.  Even reported crimes may not be recorded by police, the group points out.

Another liberal group, the VERA Institute, examined the FBI data and gave this assessment: "The FBI estimates national and state totals, sometimes using a relative small percentage of jurisdictions in a state" to flesh out its data making the numbers "deeply problematic."

VERA performed its own research on the quality of policing data from 94 of the country's largest cities.  Researchers concluded: "The results were, perhaps, predictably underwhelming.  Of the 94 localities included, only 21 scored more than 50 out of 100 on Vera's index, which rates the data's completeness. 

Public safety and crime are key issues with voters.  A recent national poll commissioned by the Associated Press (AP) found that 81% of Americans believe crime is a major problem in big cities.  Those running America's largest cities often seem out of touch with local concerns.    

It's time for Congress to standardize crime reporting methodology for local and state police organizations, while ending voluntary participation, and instead mandating records be furnished to the FBI. The agency also should be required to overhaul its processes in the interest of accuracy.

Crime data is not an academic exercise.  The numbers are essential to understanding the resources--both funding and manpower--needed to make all Americans safer.    

Police Shootings: Data Rebukes False Narrative

Another police killing.  A male viciously beaten to death.  But this murder went unreported by the media.  That's because the victim was a white police officer.  The alleged assailant is African-American. Skin color should not matter, however, in today's politically-charged environment race is paramount.

Delaware Police Officer Corporal Keith Heacook responded last week to a call for help in the assault of an elderly couple.  After he arrived on the scene, he was brutally beaten and left unconscious. You couldn't find ten Americans who know Heacook's name.  

You can bet most American recognize the names of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Tony McDade and Rayshard Brooks.  The shootings of these African-Americans have become symbols of the narrative of racist police killings.  There are no excuses for the horrific murders of these victims. 

However, the actions of a few policeman cannot justify demonizing and condemning all law enforcement officers. The false narrative, perpetuated by the media and politicians, portrays an African-American community under siege by racist police officers deliberately gunning for blacks.

President Biden joined the chorus after police officer Derek Chauvin's conviction, contending the verdict "ripped the blinders off for the whole world to see systemic racism" of police.  A specious claim since the prosecution in the case never introduced a scintilla of evidence Chauvin was a racist.

Chauvin was guilty, but not of personal racism. He made an indefensible decision to use excessive force.

Biden is not alone in race-baiting.  NBA basketball player LeBron James, the self-appointed, unofficial African-American spokesman for the league, tweeted the following after the recent murder of Ahmoud Arbery in Georgia.  The alleged killers were two white males.  

"We're literally hunted EVERYDAY/EVERYTIME we step foot outside the comfort of our homes! Can't even go for a damn jog man! Like WTF man are you kidding me?!?!?!?!?!

In light of such prejudicial rhetoric, it is time to set the record straight.  It is a rarity for a police officer to shoot anyone.  White or black.  

In fact, a black male is more likely to be struck by lightning than to be shot by a police officer.  The latest data from 2019 shows that police shot and killed 1,003 people in the United States.  Of those, 405 were white and 250 were African-American.  Fifty-five were unarmed suspects: 25 whites, 14 blacks.

Since 2015, law enforcement officers have shot and killed 6,211 people: 46% of them (2,883) were white, while 24% (1,496) were black.  According to the most recent Census data African-Americans constitute 13.4% of the population, while whites make up 60.1%.  

One of the stubborn myths about police shootings is the fact officers shoot unarmed black men at an alarming rate, compared to whites. There have been about 7,300 black homicide victims a year.  The 14 unarmed victims in fatal police shootings would comprise 0.2% of that total.            

Since 2015, the data finds 91% of black males killed by police officers were armed: 75% were armed with a gun or knife; the remainder used other weapons, including automobiles.  

The data cited above is from The Washington Post's Fatal Force database. That is significant because The Post is certainly not conservative or a pro-police news outlet.  Often politicians and the media falsely claim law enforcement under reports shootings of victims, especially African-Americans.

The FBI compiles data from reports voluntarily sent to its offices from police departments.  Since all police departments are not compelled to provide the figures, there is cynicism about the FBI data. The Post uses news accounts, social media postings and police reports to build its database.  

Scientific studies have proven that racial bias is not a factor in the disparity between whites and blacks killed by police.  A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2019 found "no significant evidence of a racial disparity in the likelihood of being fatally shot by police."

For perspective, blacks accounted for 53% of the murder and non-negligent manslaughter arrests in 2018 according to FBI data.  Blacks represented 54% of all robbery arrests and 37% of all violent crime arrests versus whites' percentages of 44%, 43%, and 59%, respectively, for those same categories.

In other words, police are more likely to encounter a black person in investigating violent crimes. More than 1.8 million blacks were arrested in 2019 for all crimes, the FBI reports.  Based 2019 FBI data, a minuscule 0.0099% of the 10.08 million people arrested by police were shot and killed by an officer. 

African-Americans made up 27.4% of the police arrests in the latest data.  That means one out of every 6,762 black offenders were shot and killed by police.  The ratio of unarmed black males shot and killed was one out of every 67,334 African-American men who were arrested. 

The statistic no media or politician dares to mention is this: 88.9% of all murders of African-Americans are committed by blacks.  By comparison 80% of white victims were murdered by other whites. Blacks kill far more of their own citizens than white policemen.  

Those figures hardly justify headlines screaming police shootings of blacks are an epidemic. Given the sheer volumes of contacts law enforcement has in a single year, the number of people killed by police stands as evidence most police act responsibly and use proper judgement. 

As further proof, Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) for 2015 revealed that 53.5 million people had at least one contact with police. The majority (95%) of those contacts involved traffic stops.  Only 2% of all citizens involved with police experienced force or the threat of force, the BJS reports.  

The facts haven't stopped politicians from asserting policing is an "indefensible system that grants impunity for state violence."  That is a quote from Brooklyn Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the outspoken leaders of the national effort to dismantle policing in America. 

The anti-police campaign has been built on lies, myths and the media's biased reporting of officer shootings.  Yet if anyone armed with facts tries to unravel the narrative, that individual is branded a racist for refusing to bow to the established presumption of police targeting blacks.

Unless the country begins to examine the facts, racial divisions will become a chasm too wide to repair.  That prospect is tragically becoming a reality because politicians and the media are invested in criminalizing police protection in our communities.  

Ironically, a Gallup poll found African-American respondents were twice as likely as their white counterparts to want stepped up policing in their communities.  Activists who want to defund police would do more harm to black communities by their insistence on weakening police protection.    

If the anarchists have their way, the real epidemic will be runaway crime in black communities.

Home Burglaries Spur Growth Industry

Americans are shelling out billions of dollars annually to thwart home burglaries, fueling a technological revolution and generating a boom in new business opportunities for an expanding list of companies.

Worried Americans seeking self-preservation spent $13 billion last year on home security systems.  Experts are forecasting a 9.3 percent annual growth rate in residential security expenditures, soaring to $17.4 billion this year.

The surge in spending mirrors the rising losses suffered by homeowners.  The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reported that Americans were hit with $15.5 billion in losses in 2012, the most recent year for which national crime statistics are available.

According to the FBI, there were 8,975,438 property crimes in 2012. The lion's share were residential burglaries, which accounted for 73.9 percent of the total.  In the time it has taken you to read to this point, two home burglaries have been reported to police somewhere in the U.S.

Although home invasions have declined sightly, the arrest rate for residential burglaries remains among the lowest of all property crimes. Statistics show that only 12.6 percent of burglaries are cleared by police, which helps explain the lure for criminals.

The average haul in a home heist is more than $2,120.  Typical items stolen include clothing, furs, luggage, jewelry, watches, keys, appliances and electronics.  To collect the loot, burglars spend an average of only eight to twelve minutes in a residence before making their getaway.

Most burglars strike in broad daylight.  Police reports show the thefts occur between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m., when most residents are not at home.  Although a few thieves enter the home through an unlocked door, most use some type of force to enter the dwelling.

This onslaught of brazen thievery has birthed a robust home security industry.  Traditional players such as ADT have the major market share, but new entrants such as AT&T, cable companies and even Direct TV are offering sophisticated security products to residents.

In addition to the standard alarms, these companies are selling advanced video surveillance systems featuring wireless cameras that can be manipulated remotely with a smartphone.  Using those same smartphones, homeowners can monitor their residences from the office or while on vacation.

Virtually all systems notify the system's monitoring firm, which dispatches police or fire department personnel in the event of a break-in or blaze.  Some will simultaneously deliver a text and email alert to your smartphone.

Additional gadgets include devices that alert consumers if there is a water leak in the residence or in the event someone disarms your system.  With the latter feature, consumers may provide unique entry codes to maids or others who need access to the residence.     

Cable companies and telecommunications firms are expanding the variety of security products to include home automation services, which allow customers to tap their broadband systems to control lights, appliances, televisions and thermostats remotely.

Price is emerging as a key competitive battlefield for the providers as companies bundle services to offer bargains to consumers. Home security monitoring costs range from $30 to $60 per month, depending on the complexity of the systems.  Cameras, video recorders and other devices cost extra.

But consumers are finding the added peace of mind is worth the expenditures.  Although no dwelling is completely safe.  Even the White House was the scene of an attempted break-in.

If you recall, last year a delusional driver dared to try to crash her car through the gates of the impenetrable White House.  Although she failed, if armed security didn't deter her attempt, then every American's residence is no less safe from intrusion.