Covid 19: The Facts The Media Won't Report

Americans grappling with the Coronavirus need facts instead of half-baked worst case scenarios.  The news media in collusion with politicians continue to sow seeds of fear, paralyzing the nation, promoting hoarding of food and condemning anyone voicing optimism instead of gloom.

The disinformation avalanche among dubious scientists, politically active doctors, past administration officials, uninformed journalists and the World Health Organization (WHO) has overwhelmed the public with a dizzying array of conflicting reports and dire projections.

In point of fact, the head of WHO has warned of a massive "infodemic", an overabundance of data and information, some accurate and most inaccurate, that makes it difficult for "people to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when we need it."  Amen.

Most worst case scenarios are based on models that assume minimal government intervention, hospital bed shortages, doctors too sick to treat patients, lack of a strict quarantine and no school closures.  Using this model, a European journalist projected 100 million cases.  This is not credible.  

The news media is the most unreliable source of unbiased, scientific information and data.  My advice is tune it out.  Turn to the experts in infectious diseases.  Those include Johns Hopkins University, the National Institute of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Using the data from those three sources, here are facts the mainstream media, including Fox News, have not reported in their haste to dish up around-the-clock, audience boosting, Apocalyptic  perspectives on COVID-19. Note: All data below is as of March 21 from CDC, Johns Hopkins and NIH.

•  83% of all the deaths reported have been in just four countries: China, Italy, Spain and Iran.
• 57% of all the cases worldwide have been reported in those same four countries.
• 94,176 individuals globally have recovered from the virus without complications.
• The fatality rate worldwide is 0.4%, one of the least lethal viruses in recent times.
• The worldwide death rate for those 80+ is 14.8%.
• Infected patients over age 65 account for 80% of U.S. deaths.
• The current fatality rate in the U.S. is .01%, identical to the seasonal flu deaths (.01%).

Those highest risk of infection are elderly, especially those with with preexisting conditions.  Here are the death rates for those seniors, calculated by Worldometer a respected reference website. The stats are fatality rates for those infected with the virus with the following preexisting conditions:

• Cardiovascular Disease  13.2%
• Diabetes 9.2%
• Hypertension  8.4%
• Chronic Respiratory Disease 8.0%
• Cancer 7.6%

These are facts not hyperbole.  The numbers cited above clearly indicate most Americans are not at a high risk even if that contract the virus. That fact has been absent from most news articles and from many medical experts rhapsodizing on television.

Yet alarmists persist, in spite of the statistics, claiming this virus is more deadly than any we have faced.  This is patently false.  The SARS death rate was 9.6% and MERS was 34%.  Even though COVID 19 rates are in flux, credible sources put the worldwide fatality rate at 0.4%. 

In an effort to make the current crisis appear likely to escalate, some health officials are warning this could be another 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic that killed 50 million people worldwide and infected 500 million individuals.  About 675,000 Americans died of complications from the Spanish Flu.

Certainly, those are frightening numbers.  However, what the experts do not tell you is that comparing the health care in 1918 to today is akin to the comparing automobiles from that era to the present. To being with, there were no vaccines and no antibiotics to fight the infection in 1918.

Health care was limited to non-pharmaceutical intervention.  In other words, people sheltered in place.  That was the only available tool to fight the spread of the disease.  The number of hospitals in the U.S. in 1918 is dwarfed by the modern facilities we have today in the country.

Any "expert" using the 1918 virus as a predictor of what will happen in America today is an irresponsible charlatan.  

The view of many politically motivated journalists and those who have lobbied for a Draconian lockdown of America can be summarized in this opinion piece from Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan who penned the following:

"Is all this an overreaction?  If it is, we'll recover.  If we're too cautions we'll realize after a while and we'll all get angry at the economic cost of it and have big arguments and fights.  But we'll be here to argue and fight."

This tortured logic, which has been repeated often by politicians, exhibits a callous disregard for the millions of Americans who will be laid off, unable to feed their families, suffer economic hardships, forfeit their life savings in the stock market, lose their homes or be forced on welfare.

These average Americans are viewed by the media as collateral damage. But isn't it interesting that every sports superstar or Hollywood celebrity who contracts the virus becomes "breaking news."  These folks have fortunes to sustain them whatever the adversity.  Others have no safety net. 

While the media and critics continue to complain about the lack of a vaccine, here is a sobering observation from Johns Hopkins.  "A new vaccines might be at least 12 to 18 months away though new drug treatments will likely come sooner," the School of Public Health reported on its website.

The good news is that Johns Hopkins is leading a pioneering effort using plasma recovered from survivors of the Coronavirus as a treatment for those infected as well as a prevention of infection.  With cooperation from the FDA, the plasma treatment could be rolled out in three to four weeks.

This strategy is already being used in China, which has shipped plasma to Italy. Johns Hopkins experts say the plasma is very safe because it is screened for bloodborne pathogens.  Blood transfusions are some of the most regulated industries in the U.S. and one of the safest.

Early results also show that a common drug used to treat malaria offers promise in arresting he Coronavirus.  The drug has the advantage of already being approved by the FDA and supplies are readily available throughout the country.  Testing and trails have begun in earnest.  

These examples are evidence that America is not standing still waiting for some miracle to spare us from the Coronavirus.  The entire scientific community, pharmaceutical companies and global healthcare institutions are actively racing to find a treatment and a vaccine.

Americans need to be informed that once this epidemic subsides that the risk of future pandemics is mushrooming every year with global business and pleasure travel, worldwide supply chains where medicines and health products and other goods are regularly transported across borders.

The incidence of infectious disease calamities has more than doubled from the 1940's to the 1960's, according to EcoHealth Alliance, a New York based nonprofit research group.  The rates of such incidents surged in the 1980's with the advent of HIV and is escalating, the group reports.

This century alone the world has confronted a legion of viral scares, including SARS in 2002 and 2003, the swine flu (H1N1) in 2009, MERS in 2012, Ebola in 2014 to 2016, Zika in 2015 and Dengue fever in 2016. The United States survived these outbreaks without a nationwide lockdown.

America and the world needs a post mortem after the Coronavirus subsides to assess how we dealt with the pandemic without playing the blame game.  What can we do next time to minimize economic and social disruption and still protect people?  That should be the objective of any plan.      

If there is a beacon of hope in this current panic, it has been the response of average Americans.  Teachers are preparing lunches for school children who depend on this meal. One Texas school teacher is hosting a Facebook video to teach homebound kids to play chess.

Restaurants are offering take-out food to keep their businesses running and provide employment for their hourly wage workers.  Students in a small Nebraska community are making get well cards for those with the virus.  Pharmacies are open, dispensing critical medications to sick people.  

The Food Bank and extraordinary volunteers are distributing groceries to shut-ins and the elderly.  Churches are conducting online services.  I have observed kindnesses of complete strangers who share their food, toilet paper and disinfectants.  This should make everyone proud to be an American.

And let's not forget the real heroes--those doctors, nurses, medical assistants, hospital emergency room personnel and other healthcare workers who are on the frontlines in the battle against this virus. They have put their own health at risk to save others.  There is no more noble sacrifice.    

Our resilient nation will survive this emergency just as we always have.  Put your faith in God and not in the government to end this trauma.  He remains our eternal hope. This trial too shall pass. After it does, let a grateful nation bend its knees in praise of our Creator.

An Open Letter To My Fellow Americans

An Open Letter To My Fellow Americans:

Never in seven decades have I witnessed such panic, hysteria and anxiety.  This assessment is from a person who lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Vietnam War, the attacks of 9/11, the swine flu, SARS and Ebola pandemics and the deadliest U.S. influenza season (2016-2017) in four decades.

The America I know has always risen above any crisis with unmistakable resilience to carry on with life whatever the peril.  It is part of our DNA as Americans that in the darkest of hours we the people are a shining beacon of optimism.  Our indomitable spirit is what makes us Americans.

But since late January America has morphed into pessimistic defeatists, paralyzed by dread and delirium. This in no way demeans the health threat of the COVID-19 virus.  It is real, not some hoax.  However, the reaction--far from measured- has been disproportionate to the facts on the ground.

The following statistics are from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center as of March 16:

There have been 3,707 cases of the virus reported in 46 states and D.C.  There have been 69 fatalities. Most of the deaths (22) occurred in nursing homes in Washington state. King County in the state is the U.S. epicenter of the virus, where 35 deaths have been reported.

The scientific jury is still out on the death rate because many patients recover before they are even diagnosed with the virus.  That has made it difficult to judge how lethal the pandemic may be.  Therefore, speculation has replaced facts in raising alarm among the American public.

Perspective and context are needed most in the onslaught of incendiary news media reporting. The H1N1 Virus pandemic of 2009, commonly known as swine flu, resulted in the deaths of 12,469 Americans.  Sixty-one million contracted swine flu and 273,304 were hospitalized.

At the start of the outbreak, President Obama announced it was a health emergency.  However, he did not declare a national emergency until October 24, 2009, after at least 1,000 deaths had been reported in the U.S.  Viruses are not political in nature.  To treat disease as such is ghoulish.

To add further context, in 2009 CDC initially suggested districts to only shut their doors if a student contracted the disease but later reversed course and ordered schools closed. A swine flu vaccine did not even begin CDC trials until July 22, well after the virus had run its course.

No sporting leagues cancelled seasons.  Broadway did not go dark.  Conventions went on as planned.  America did what it always does.  People took precautions but refused to be cowed by the epidemic. In contrast, COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented shutdown of every aspect of American life.

How can this be justified?  It can not based on the known risks and facts.  But today's political climate is all about virtue signaling.  Once one sports league capitulated, the others acted like lemmings so as not to appear insensitive to the health issue.  It is a sign of today's cultural correctness.

Churches are scrubbing services.  Schools are shuttering.  St. Patrick's Day parades are erased. Restaurants and bars are closed.  The list goes on and on.  Each day brings another cancellation--not out of an "abundance of caution"--but borne out of a fear of lawsuits if opening triggers an outbreak.

Despite the lockdown of America, it has not quelled media speculation.  The once respected New York Times ran a scare mongering headline on Friday about the "Worst Case Estimates of the U.S. Coronavirus Deaths."  Other Chicken Littles are reporting the death count could soar to 150,000.

Despite the deliberately provocative reporting, the facts remain that most cases of the coronavirus are mild.  Most people infected with the flu like disease recover.  The majority of deaths have been in people 80+ years and older in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Yet millions of my fellow Americans are stockpiling toilet paper, disinfectant wipes, bottled water, hand sanitizers and respiratory masks.  In trips to three local grocery outlets this week, I found rows and rows of empty shelves where these products once were stocked.

The same news media that has driven the panic buying now has taken to scoffing at those who are swarming stores in a frenzied search for supplies.  What did they expect?  If you treat a pandemic as the Apocalypse, naturally people will react as if he world is nearing its end.

Americans have watched in horror as the stock market plummeted on panic selling.  Their companies have issued warnings of dire economic times ahead.  Financial analysts are predicting an economic Armageddon that will fuel a nightmarish recession.  Any wonder Americans are worried?

This man-made sabotage of the American economy will hurt the people who can least afford to do without a paycheck.  Hourly wage earners are the most vulnerable, particular those in food and beverage service industries and small businesses.  They may never recover economically. 

In our global economy, we can expect foreign born viruses to become a regular fixture of our world.  Will our current response to COVID-19 become the new normal?  I pray not because it means constant disruption, chaos and economic cataclysm.  Viruses will always be with us. 

I have a suggestion: let's issue a declaration of sanity in dealing with this virus.  Prudent steps should be taken.  But Americans do not succumb to boogiemen.  After September 11, we refused to be rattled by terrorists who killed 3,000 of our fellow citizens in a single day.  Remember?

After a temporary pause, Major League Baseball, the National Football League and Broadway were open for business.  The president encouraged Americans to demonstrate to those who would murder us that we would not be terrorized.  We would live unafraid, unbowed and free from fear.

This is unscientific research but I went to a high school baseball game right after the major sports leagues dove off the cliff.  The adults were joking about the pandemonium over the virus.  No one wore a mask, or refused to sit next to a stranger but many carried hand sanitizers. Folks were calm.

I believe most Americans actually feel the same about this virus.  They are the ones who don't spend all day in front of a television watching cable news. They don't wait for the government to tell them what to do in a crisis.  They use common sense and are not consumed by an unhealthy state of anxiety.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt, in his first inaugural address in 1933, reassured a deeply troubled nation in the throes of economic despair over the Great Depression,  that the "only thing we had to fear was fear itself."

That was wise counsel 87 years ago.  The president's words are even more appropriate today.

Respectfully,

Drew Roy