The Veterinary Doctor Who Saved American Lives

A medical pioneer, whose career began in animal health, is the mystery man behind the accelerated development of the first life-saving Covid vaccine approved last November. His company, the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer, has churned out 2.5 billion dosages for distribution to 116 nations. 

Dr. Albert Bourla, the drug firm's chairman and chief executive officer, steered the company in the development of a ground-breaking vaccine using mRNA technology. He green-lighted $2 billion in research and development for the technology.  His decision was a gigantic risk for his company. 

Although mRNA technology had been studied for decades, many in the scientific community considered it a tricky challenge to use it for a COVID vaccine. Scientists hoped an mRNA vaccine could be engineered to teach our cells to make a protein that triggers an immune response to COVID.  

Dr. Bourla made the decision to collaborate with BioNTech, a German firm with experience in the field of immunology and a leader in the development of therapeutics for the treatment of cancer.  The partnership marshaled the resources and scientists of two firms to tackle the vaccine conundrum.  

Development of the vaccine turned out to be a supply chain nightmare.  The 280 different materials or components in the vaccine were sourced by suppliers in 19 countries.  Adding to the challenge, many of the countries were locked down, including the U.S. It was a daunting obstacle to overcome. 

Additionally, Pfizer had to create a manufacturing process from scratch.  An army of scientists, engineers and manufacturing workers developed an efficient manufacturing machine for the vaccine. The first dosages were shipped on December 15, less than nine months after the project was launched.

The vaccine development was hailed as a stunning scientific achievement, reducing the timeframe from years to months.  For Dr. Bourla, it was the capstone of a more than 25-year career at Pfizer that began in 1993 when he was hired as the firm's technical director in the Animal Health Division in Greece.

Dr. Bourla holds a Doctor of Veterinary Medicine degree and a PHD in the Biotechnology Reproduction from the Veterinary School of Aristotle University in Thessaloniki, Greece.  An unlikely degree path for someone who would occupy the CEO office at the one of the world largest pharmaceutical companies.

What makes his life story fascinating is that he was born in the Ancient Greek city of Salonica, where his mother and father were among the few Jews to survive Nazi Germany's brutal occupation. Of the more than 50,000 Jews living in Salonica before World War II, about 2,000 survived the death camps.

Bourla's father, uncle and two brothers eluded the initial Nazi roundup for Jews in the Greek city, escaping to Athens on fake ID's supplied by leaders in the Greek Orthodox Church. His mother dodged death under miraculous circumstances.  

She was facing execution by Nazi soldiers in Salonica. She was lined up against a brick wall facing a machine gun just feet away.  Seconds before the firing began, two Nazi soldiers arrived in the nick of time with an order for her release. They whisked her away to safety.

According to Dr. Bourla, his mother's freedom was purchased by a bribe paid by her wealthy Christian brother-in-law to Salonica's top Nazi SS officer. Her father and three of his brothers found each other after the war had ended in the old city.  

Dr. Bourla's says his parents' account of their gruesome memories of Nazi occupation motivated him to lead a positive life, despite his family's past, cocooned in the darkness of Germany's horrific occupation of his homeland.

The irony of Pfizer's decision to ally with a Germany company to create a vaccine that saved countless lives is not lost on Dr. Bourla. He credits his parents with engraining a spirit of forgiveness and thankfulness in their children. 

"They never spoke to me about revenge," Dr. Bourla recalls. "They never told us that you should hate those that did that to us.  The way their stories always ended was a celebration of life. 'We were almost dead and now we are alive.  Life is wonderful.'"

These lessons are worth celebrating on this Thanksgiving and throughout our lives. 

Mr. Biden: Vaccine Mandates Will Not Stop Virus

During the COVID-19 scourge last year, the nation's leaders cheered first responders, nurses, doctors and healthcare workers.  Politicians saluted their courage for risking exposure to the deadly virus to treat the infected. Some died after tending patients. A grateful country celebrated them as heroes.

Today vaccine mandates, dictated by the Biden Administration, are turning these heroes into villains. Many city mayors are vilifying firemen, police, emergency responders and healthcare workers who refuse to be vaccinated.  Hundreds are resigning and scores are being fired for refusing to get the jab.

In most cases, cities deny religious and medical exemptions. The intent is clear: Capitulate to the vaccine mandate or leave your job. This authoritarian approach is being justified because of the continuing Coronavirus toll.  Regardless, America has turned its back on those who saved lives.

Mr. Biden also wheedled the Defense Department to mandate vaccinations for military service members, effecting 1.5 million troops. Four senators introduced a bill prohibiting the military from dishonorably discharging troops who refuse the shot. The president says he "strongly opposes" the bill.

Dwight Stirling, CEO of the Center for Law and Military Policy, says service members' refusal to take the shot will likely result in "adverse administrative action" that may include a written reprimand, a derogatory performance review, demotion or in extreme cases, an involuntary discharge.

Since COVID began, 52 service members have died of the virus. In the two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, 6,817 military troops were killed. More than 52,000 were wounded. Wars are more dangerous to military members' health than the virus.  No more wars would save more lives than a vaccine shot.  

The president's expansive mandate includes all business employers with more than 100 workers, who are required to be vaccinated or test weekly for the virus.  At a time when firms are having trouble hiring workers, this will exacerbate the problem. There are currently 10.5 million job openings. 

Airlines, an industry hit hard by job vacancies, are facing a December 8 deadline for workers to be vaccinated.  Unions have balked and protests by Southwest Airlines employees signal trouble ahead. Airlines are struggling to maintain schedules with reduced crews. They can't afford employee losses.   

This president, whose poll numbers on handling the virus are underwater, is no doubt concerned about reversing what has been an alarming rise in deaths this year after he promised to tame the pandemic and return to normalcy.

Since January 1, there have been 353,000 Coronavirus deaths, eclipsing the total fatalities during 2020 when 352,000 Americans died.  Unlike today, last year Americans had no access to vaccines until December 11. This month COVID deaths surged past 700,000, another grim milestone.

A study released last month by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) tracked more than 600,000 Coronavirus cases in 13 states from April through July, and concluded the unvaccinated are 11 times more likely to die from the virus if they are infected then those who received the vaccine.  

Those numbers underscore the need for vaccinations. Selling the message of protecting your health should be straight forward. Americans want to be educated and armed with information so they can make their own health decisions.  The majority of informed Americans  are opting to take the jab.

After many communication missteps by the administration, Mr. Biden in frustration decided to coerce Americans into getting vaccinated. This is a reversal from his stance on December 4, when the president-elect said Americans would not be forced to take the vaccine. Another broken Biden promise.   

As a result of Mr. Biden's plan of vaccination intimidation,  your personal health is now the government's prerogative.  You do not have a choice.  If you want to keep your livelihood, you must surrender your freedom to make your health decisions.

Will it work?  There are reports more Americans lining up to get the shot. The CDC estimates an average of 785,133 vaccine doses are being dispensed every day.  But at what cost to freedom?  And is the Unity President further dividing America into two camps: the vaccinated and unvaccinated?         

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the administration's resident COVID sage, recently told National Public Radio (NPR) that researchers "have estimated that around 70% to 85% of the country needs to be immune to the Coronavirus for COVID-19 to stop spreading through communities and peter out."

Latest figures from the CDC show 57.7% of Americans have been fully vaccinated, meaning they have received two doses of the vaccine.  By any measure, the progress toward Dr. Fauci's goal of vaccinating 70% to 85% of the population is proceeding at a snail's pace.

Months from now it will be revealing to learn if the Biden dictate significantly moved the needle on vaccinations. Even if it works, the president's actions will be studied by politicians invested in government control.  Meanwhile, there are privacy and religious freedoms that have been trampled.

New lawsuits are sprouting against the mandate, although none have prevailed so far.  In the latest, 24 plaintiffs filed a lawsuit against the government, asking a temporary restraining order.  The lawsuit claims religious and medical exemptions have been ignored.  

Many medical elitists who lobby for the mandate believe some Americans are just too dumb to decide for themselves to get the vaccine. Some Americans have to be forced against their will for the good of the country.  But that logic is a slippery slope that may lead to loss of personal health decisions.  

For those who agree with the mandate, consider this: Cancer and heart disease are the leading causes of deaths in the U.S., killing 1.289 million last year, far more than COVID.  The cost of hospitalization and treatment burden hospitals, run up billions of dollars in bills and create untold human suffering.    

Under the Biden health doctrine, a future president in consultation with health experts may decide the way to save lives is through elimination of health risks, such as obesity and smoking, major contributing factors in cancer and heart disease. 

An executive order would follow mandating businesses and municipal, federal and state agencies, test workers for obesity and smoking. Unless those employees lose weight and quit smoking, they would be removed from their jobs. The medical community would be first to jump on board.  

Don't shake your head and guffaw that it could never happen.  Many made the same assumption about a vaccine mandate for Americans. Did anyone really believe the U.S. government could force people to give up their jobs for failure to comply with a vaccination requirement?    

The Singapore experience with Coronavirus serves as a cautionary tale for the administration pursuing an autocratic strategy to arrest COVID. 

When the Singapore government rolled out its vaccines, it undertook an extensive propaganda campaign, targeting the most vulnerable in the population.  It worked. About 84% of Singapore's population of 5.6 million have been vaccinated.  The virus should be over, right? Wrong.

The number of new cases recently reached 3,900 this month, one of the worst daily totals since the start of the pandemic in the island-state.  Currently, infections are running an average of 3,217 a day. Daily deaths have also spiked, reports the Singapore government. There is a lesson for America. 

The goal of zero cases and zero deaths is unachievable.  The virus will continue to mutate. Mandates will not change that. Vaccines work but until a population achieves immunity the virus will linger.  No government can protect every citizen from a virus.  If it could, influenza would be no threat today. 

Americans' healthcare decisions are not the providence of government.  As abortion proponents remind: Our bodies, our choice. The vaccine mandate is the first step toward total government control of our health.  That is a freedom no American should be forced to forfeit.    

Media's Misleading COVID Data To Indict Trump

Democrats and their candidate Joe Biden have pounced on the opportunity to turn the presidential election into a referendum on Mr. Trump's 'bungling' of the pandemic.  The theme taps into a rich vein of public anger over the never ending outbreaks, lockdowns, job losses and work-from-home issues. 

Understandably,  the patience of Americans is all but exhausted.  The nation's citizens feel imprisoned by a virus they initially thought would be no worse than garden-variety flu. Tragically, some Americans have lost loved ones to the virus.  A return to normalcy appears to fade with each passing day.

Americans can at least agree that doctors, nurses and staff on the front lines at hospitals are the genuine heroes in the fight to provide urgent healing in the midst of chaos, along with the scientists who have waged their own battle in labs to unravel the mysteries of the virus.

However, public angst has been heightened by sometimes conflicting scientific theories and hypothesizes.  For example, on February 28, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Centers for Disease Control Director Dr. Robert Redfield and a colleague published an analysis in the New England Journal of Medicine

In an analysis of widely reported global death rates for COVID-19, they wrote the disease's fatality rate was "more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza." Their report influenced Mr. Trump's perspective.   Hindsight has proven their assessment was flawed, but scientists were grappling with a novel virus.   

Scientists' work was complicated by the lack of cooperation from China, where the Coronavirus originated.  No one blames scientists who worked feverishly in labs to solve the secrets of COVID-19. But when scientists are confounded, it opens the door for the media to create its own narrative. 

The media klieg lights shine on infections (cases) and deaths.  The numbers make scary headlines: Death toll surpasses 210,000! Coronavirus cases soar past 7 million! Instead of putting the figures into perspective through meaningful comparisons, the media flaunts the numbers to fuel public outrage. 

News outlets make no secret their mission to pin the blame on the president for the pandemic. Pundits regularly cite as 'evidence' of the administration's epic failure the following statistic: the United States has only five percent (4.29%) of the population but more than 20% of global COVID-19 deaths.

Your fact-checker can confirm these statistics are true as verified by the Centers for Disease Control and Johns Hopkins Research. However, it is not a useful measurement of success or failure of the administration.  The data point is skewed by the size of the U.S. population, the world's third largest.

Using the same metric (global population percentage and COVID deaths), Belgium's death count is seven-times greater than its population percentage.  Chile, Spain and Britain are five times greater.  Italy and Sweden have recorded fatalities that are a smidgen under five-times their population percentage.

It is a meaningless statistic if you a serious journalist determined to make apples-to-apples comparisons.  But let's acknowledge critics' argument there are countries, such as Germany, who have done a better job in terms of managing the worse effects of the pandemic. Let's test that premise with data.

The statistics listed are from the following sources: World Health Organization, Johns Hopkins Research, Centers for Disease Control, Statista, a global provider of data.   All numbers and percentages are as of October 2 reports.  

• The United States has conducted 111 million Coronavirus tests. That is second only to China's 160 million, a country three times the size of America. The U.S. has conducted 336,250 tests per one million population.  Israel (402,619) and the U.K. (368,471) are the only countries that rank higher than the U.S. on that metric, which is the fairest comparison. Germany ranks below the U.S. in tests per million (202,724).
• The U.S. ranks 48th in the world in fatality rates for the virus. The U.S. death rate as a percentage of confirmed cases is 2.87%.  Italy, for example, is 11.2%. The United Kingdom is 9.2%,  Germany (3.14%) and France (5.2%) are among the 47 countries with worst fatalities as a percent of confirmed cases.
• To adjust for population differences, it is fair to compare the data on deaths per 100,000 population.  The U.S. ranks eleventh in the world on this metric (64.11 per million) with the United Kingdom only slightly behind.  Belgium, Brazil and Mexico all rank higher. Germany has reported 15.21 deaths per million population, a lower rate than the U.S. 
• The U.S. ranks seventh in the world in the number of confirmed cases per one-million population: 25,554.  That means about 2.5% of America's population has been infected with the virus.  Germany's rate is 3,703 confirmed cases per one-million with an infection rate of less than 1%.  The U.S. has four times the population of Germany and America is more than 20 times larger than the European country in terms of land mass.  

Even those comparisons do not take into consideration differences in culture, democracies, healthcare systems  and domestic freedoms. However, it is fair to point out that some countries have done better than the United States on a few metrics.  That begs the question: What did those nations do differently?

Since Germany is often singled out as a model, it is interesting to learn their protocols were not significantly different from the United States.  Here is what Germany's Federal Minister of Health wrote on the World Economic Forum website about how his country contained the Coronavirus:

"First the German healthcare system was in good shape going into the crisis; everyone has had full access to medical care.  With an excellent network of general practitioners available to deal with milder COVID-19 cases, hospitals have been able to focus on the more severely ill.

"Secondly, Germany was not the first country to be hit by the virus, and thus had time to prepare.  Accordingly, the country's ICU capacity was increased by 12,000 to 40,000 (beds) very quickly."

"Third, Germany is home to many laboratories that can test for the virus and to many distinguished researchers in the field, which helps to explain why the first COVID-19 test was developed here."

To summarize, Germany used its hospitals for the worst cases; with more advance warning than the U.S., it increased its ICU capacity rapidly; and the country was blessed with more private labs than the U.S. to do testing needed to staunch the virus.  Germany's advantages had little to do with its political leadership.

Germany managed its health crisis much the same way as the U.S., allowing its 16 federal regions the latitude to make local decisions based on the seriousness of the outbreak in each territory.  Even these measures have not spared Germany from a second wave of infections now hitting Europe.

With an uptick in new cases, German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently vowed to avoid another national lockdown.  In addition, she announced the country plans to improve its testing and contact tracing system, including levying fines of 60 euros ($58 US) for individuals providing false information.

Ms. Merkel made a political calculation that most world leaders are embracing.  Opening the economy, even a crack, likely will spur more social contact and infections.  However, countries can no longer remain locked down without risking the collapse of their economy, hindering a recovery for many years.

Like Mr. Trump, the German chancellor also has critics who accused her of not doing enough to halt the virus and reopen the economy. Virtually every nation's leader has faced harsh criticism.  It is an outgrowth of the natural despair, anxiety and frustration people are experiencing in every country.

Indulging in political gamesmanship during a pandemic solves no issues and serves to polarize the population.  President Trump can certainly be faulted for his optics (not wearing a mask) and his narcissist bravado.  Many object to the president's preening and exuberant optimism during crisis briefings.

These optics have shaped perceptions instead of data.  Information about the virus is constantly evolving as the world's scientific community increases its knowledge of the virus. Throughout the pandemic, there has been an evolution of treatments, protection protocols, data reporting and testing regimes.   

Perhaps another American president would have made faster decisions that could have mitigated the virus. Realistically, hindsight is a luxury leaders cannot afford during the midst of a mushrooming health crisis. The history of the COVID-19 pandemic is too recent to be fairly and definitively assessed. 

Presumptions about the virus based on politics are unreliable. But regardless, numbers of  Americans will be motivated to cast their ballots for a change in direction in the handling of the Coronavirus. Today perceptions matter more than factual data on most issues. That's just the world we live in.

How New York Officials Botched Covid Response

New York City and state officials, including those in the Health Department, are to blame for the devastating impact of COVID-19 that galloped across the burroughs, swamped city hospitals and killed thousands of its citizens.  Their actions are incomprehensible and indefensible. 

The result of their negligence is born out in the terrifying numbers from New York City, the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S.  New York City has accounted for 30.7% of all the fatalities and 29% of confirmed cases in the country, yet represents just 2.5% of the nation's population.

The latest data from The New York Times paints a grim picture.  There have been 321,833 people infected in the city and 24,576 deaths as of today.  To put this in perspective, New York City has more fatalities than entire countries, such as Germany, Russia and Poland.

New York apologists claim the density of the city and its sprawling transportation are the reason for the excessive number of deaths and cases.  No doubt, density and transportation are unique environmental circumstances to New York City, but also to many major cities around the world.

Officials in New York cannot escape responsibility by citing their surroundings.  Their actions and inactions have left an indelible mark on the crisis.  Both Governor Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill DeBlasio have a lot of explaining to do to their citizens.

Months after President Trump restricted travel to China, the mayor and his top health official were telling citizens to take the subway and attend parades.  Both public figures were openly advising city dwellers that the virus was not as widespread as people thought.

Unfortunately, for them video tape and news archives provide damning evidence.  On February 2, New York City Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot urged citizens to "take the subway" go out to their favorite restaurants, ride the bus and attend the Chinatown parade.  The mayor agreed.

On February 7, Barbot suggested the risks of the virus were minimal for New Yorkers.  Her words: "We're telling New Yorkers, go about your lives, take the subway, go out, enjoy life."  She downplayed the spread of the virus, suggesting the risks were minimal.

Not to be outdone, DeBlasio three days later appeared on MSNBC and urged New Yorkers under 50 years old they were safe from the virus.  "If you're under 50 and healthy, which is most New Yorkers, there is very little threat here." He likened the virus to the "common cold or flu."

On March 3, when it was clear a pandemic was coming, DeBlasio took to social media to promote going to movie theaters and "encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives and get out on the town despite Coronavirus."  Many New Yorkers followed the mayor's lead.

As if his incompetence wasn't enough, the mayor offended millions of New Yorkers by scapegoating Jews during the virus outbreak.  His words:

"My message to the Jewish community, and all communities, is simple: the time for warnings has passed.  I have instructed the NYPD to proceed immediately to summons on even arrest those who gather in large groups.  This is about stopping this disease and saving lives. Period."

His warning came after a single Orthodox Jewish funeral was held.  Jeff Ballabon, a lawyer and former CBS executive, and Mark Goldfeder, a law professor, scolded the governor, saying "Jews across the spectrum overwhelmingly adhered to the guidelines."

The mayor also was uneven in application of justice, allowing funerals in some areas to proceed while targeting Orthodox Jews.  "Stereotyping a group based on the actions of a few people is never appropriate...and blaming Jews is by definition anti-Semitic, " Balabon and Goldfeder wrote.

Meanwhile, the city's subways kept shuttling 5 million people daily.  It was a prescription for a disaster that would unfold in March and throughout April.  On April 24, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) released a study documenting the subways seeded the massive outbreak.

"New York City's multi-pronged subway system was a major disseminator--if not the principal transmission vehicle--of Coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout the city during March," the 19-page report concluded.

The report's author wrote: "A crowded subway train is thus an ideal incubator for Coronavirus transmission."  The virus continued to spread along subway lines through at least the third week of March.  At the height of the outbreak, the Metropolitan Transit Authority made a fatal decision.

The agency opted to reduce train service to reflect declining ridership, which packed more passengers in fewer subway cars.  The cars were not being disinfected each time the subway emptied out, the report revealed. The agency's decision "enhanced the risk of the contagion," the data confirmed.

Governor Cuomo, who has been universally praised for his handling of the contagion by the media, made the call to keep the subways running. Under New York law, the governor controls the subways.  The MTA in the midst of a surging virus has continued to operate on a reduced schedule.

But that isn't Cuomo's only error in judgment.  He made a worst decision that has led to thousands of deaths. After consulting with his health officials, Cuomo ordered nursing and rehabilitation centers to take in COVID-19 patients.

His logic was that it would relieve the burden on hospitals and thus save lives by allowing more people to be treated.  It backfired with disastrous results.  Placing infected patients with the most vulnerable in society, the elderly and sick, was beyond the pale of comprehension.

The state now concedes that 3,448 residents of nursing homes and adult care facilities died of the virus.  That is nearly 25% of the deaths in the city.  However, the reports have been sketchy leading many officials to acknowledge that the real numbers might be even higher.

Cuomo's move also has to be viewed through the context that the first full scale outbreak of the virus in the U.S. took place in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington, where at least 24 patients have died.  How could the governor and his state health officials ignore the danger to elderly people?

Cuomo's decision was conceived the same exact week that Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Health's National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Disease, made this public statement carried by nearly every media outlet:

"It's so clear that the overwhelming weight of serious disease and mortality is on those who are elderly and those with a serious comorbidity, heat disease, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity, respiratory difficulties."  His pronouncement was made at the American Medical Association.

There are other indictments of city officials. For instance, a funeral home overwhelmed by hospitals transporting COVID fatalities to their establishment, began storing dozens of bodies in unrefrigerated rented U-Haul trucks outside the facility.

The practice only came to light when neighbors complained about the smell outside the funeral home.  Police were summoned to investigate.  They found 50 corpses in trucks and sprawled on the funeral home's floor.  No criminal charges were filed.  It is unconscionable act of cruelty. 

For their parts, not surprisingly both DeBlasio and Cuomo have refused to accept any responsibility for the New York City debacle. They prevaricate, blame the current administration and accuse others of malfeasance.  The may get away with it because most media outlets have covered up for the pair.

At a news conference, the governor was asked directly about his nursing home order that sentenced thousands of seniors to death.  His answer was stunning. "That's a good question.  I don't know."  He turned to the state health commissioner Howard Zucker for a further explanation.

"If you are positive, you should be admitted back to a nursing home," Zucker told reporters.  "The necessary precautions will be taken to protect the other residents there."  Obviously, the number of nursing home deaths are proof the "necessary precautions" were not taken.

On a personal note, I recognize many reading are invested in holding President Trump solely responsible for bungling the COVID response.  They will not be moved by the facts about the negligence of the New York City mayor and the state's governor.  Sadly, the truth no longer matters.

Why Data Is Critical To Arresting Coronavirus

An increasing number of scientific studies shedding new light on the Coronavirus are raising doubts about previous assertions the pandemic is far deadlier than seasonal flu.  While it is still too early to make a definitive call, the evidence should trigger a reassessment of how data is compiled.

The studies, conducted by two universities and New York, reveal far more people may have contracted the virus than official reports of confirmed cases.  In Los Angeles County, for example, a sample discovered an infection rate 40 times more than the cases reporting from testing results.

For some, the research will not sway their opinions about the steps taken by the government to deal with COVID-19.  But data matters when a nation is dealing with an infectious respiratory virus.  Without credible data, how can hospitals and states act responsibility to take precautionary measures?

An analogy would be investing in the stock market with limited or contradictory data about listed firms.  Inevitably it would lead to poor decisions, the kind that empty your bank account.  In much the same way, data is the most important tool for effectively dealing with a pandemic.

Let's start with the three recently released studies.  A study from the Stanford University School of Medicine as of April 1 found that infection rates for northern California were 55 times higher than the official confirmed cases count.  The study was based on 3,000 blood samples taken from volunteers.

The samples were tested for antibodies to COVID-19 using a test made by Euroimmun.  Based on the data and modeling estimates, the researchers estimated that the infection fatality rate was between 0.1% and 0.2%.  The death rate for seasonal influenza in the U.S. is 0.1%.

Another study released by University of Southern California (USC) unearthed similar results.  Using parallel methodology to the Stanford study, researchers estimated the number of infected people in Los Angeles County may have been 28 to 55 times higher than the reported confirmed cases.

On the heels of these findings, New York Gov. Anthony Cuomo announced the state's first survey shows that 13.9% of those tested had Coronavirus antibodies in their system, meaning they had contracted the virus and recovered.  That suggests 2.7 million people statewide had been infected.

That number is far higher than 134,824 cases that had been reported at the time the governor made the results public.  What this study and the two from California suggest is that virus is not as lethal as has been previously reported by health officials but is far more infectious than scientists suspected.

Another factor raises suspicions about current data.  Some states are counting COVID-19 deaths differently than others.  For instance, the Pennsylvania State Health Secretary reduced the fatality toll by 200 in a single day.  The official reason was to reduce "confusion" around the death count.

A California scientist believes some states are diagnosing patients with the virus AFTER they have entered the hospital for another disease.  If the patient succumbs, the cause of death may be the virus or the underlying disease.  It is a judgment call based on no universal standards.

For perspective, in the 2017-2018 flu season, 79,400 people died. There were 48.8 million people infected, requiring 959,000 to be hospitalized.  Those numbers are higher than today's COVID-19 figures. No one should take comfort, however, because COVID-19 continues to spread.

Now that research is piling up the scientific models produced by experts are quietly disappearing from the Internet.  The one estimate that sparked the panic predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S.  This same model projected 500,000 fatalities in the United Kingdom.

It was done by a respected authority, Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London.  Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered a lockdown of the country based on this data.  This is why credible data matters. It drives decision making.

As data evolves, we are seeing a familiar influenza pattern.  Exactly 80% of the deaths have been people 65+ years. The highest percentage are those 85+. Those 65 and older are 22 times more likely to die of the virus than those 55 and under, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Deaths in nursing homes and long-term care facilities for the elderly haven't generally been tracked by the CDC or other health organizations, which is odd considering the first outbreak occurred in a nursing home outside Seattle. The Wall Street Journal investigated and uncovered startling details.

At least 4,800 nursing home facilities in the country have been hit by the virus, the Journal reported. The number of people infected, including residents and staff, totals more than 56,000.
The number of deaths at nursing homes and long-term care facilities have topped 10,000.

In some states, the nursing home deaths account for most fatalities.  In Minnesota the Journal reported a state health care spokesperson acknowledged that 131 of its 179 total deaths were linked to long-term care facilities.  In Massachusetts, 55% of COVID-19 victims were nursing home residents.

The Journal's numbers were developed by contacting state officials across the country.  Many states did not have the data.  It begs the question:  "How can you stop a pandemic when there is no data to document where urgent testing needs to be concentrated?"  There is no excuse for the lapse.

There are other statistics that have not appeared in any media that offer perspective.  These may surprise some of you because it illuminates a different way to view this virus and its impact:

Percentage of Americans of who have died from the virus: 0.0001352602033%
Percentage of Americans with confirmed cases of the virus:  0.00243353907%

That means 99.9% of Americans have escaped infection and death. The news media would infer your writer takes the current pandemic too lightly.  Facts do not represent an opinion.  If facts offend people, then the country is lost.  Today's journalists fight facts with anecdotal evidence.

There are breaking news alerts each time pandemic fatalities cross another milestone number.  Someone should be asking: "Is this more deaths than previous pandemics?" It is akin to reporting traffic deaths monthly without any comparison to previous years.  Context is essential.

And finally: Percentage of all U. S. confirmed cases in just three states: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut:  45.3% By demanding tests in every state, precious testing kits were dispatched elsewhere when the most pressing needs were in three states. Facts matter in allocating resources.

In times of crisis, the country needs more data, facts and analysis.  If these outbreak teaches the country nothing else, it should be that we need accurate, standardized data collection and improved modeling.  These are essential for policy makers to conceive informed decisions.

Will the Pandemic Spark a Spiritual Reawakening?

December 8 the world awoke to the news of the first reported case of Covid-19 in Wuhan, China.  Few experts at that time could have forecast a cataclysmic pandemic that would kill thousands, swamp hospitals, exhaust medical supplies and pulverize world economies.

Facts dribbled out of the Communist regime like water from a melting glacier.  A month passed before scientists, immunologists, health organizations and political leaders understood the demon that had been unleashed.  Each new detail fueled public panic, stark fear, uncertainty and hopelessness.

In the wake of past calamitous disasters, Americans usually have rediscovered God.  Chastened by the horrors of World War II, church attendance skyrocketed.  A Gallup survey reported three-out-of-four Americans were members of a house of worship.  People rediscovered peace in God.

Even after the memory of the war began to fade, nationwide attendance at worship services spiked at a faster rate than the population during the 1950's.  Membership in churches and synagogues doubled.  It was no coincidence the words "under God" were added to the Pledge of Allegiance then.

After the horrendous attacks of 9/11, houses of worship were jammed that evening as Americans cued up to grieve and pray.  Citizens organized their own candlelight and prayer vigils.  There was a somber fog that cloaked  the country, compelling many of us to reexamine our own lives

However, after a few weeks, attendance at worship services lapsed into normalcy.  We retreated to our former ways, comforted by new security measures that made us feel safe again.  God was no longer needed.   

In troubled times, we confront the fragility of life.  The certainty that we too will die.  The illusion that we control our circumstances is shattered.  We come to grips with how trivial some of our concerns have been in light of the precarious nature of life itself. 

These dark days beg for a beacon.  A lamp to guide us through the valley of death and despair.  In the best of times, we find solace in life's pleasures.  We are distracted by what our eyes see rather than the whispered yearning in our hearts for the Creator.  Perhaps, this devastating virus will alter that.

Many Americans are ripe for a reawakening.  Weekly attendance at houses of worship is plunging.  Pew research found 37% of us attend a synagogue or church weekly.  Nearly one-in-three people seldom or never take part in worship services.  Those numbers are rising annually.

Diving deeper into the research, even people with religious affiliations find reasons to avoid worship services.  The majority (37%) cite personal issues with the church, including disagreements with religious beliefs or with church leadership.  Around 16% say they are just too busy.

Others mention personal priorities prevent them from attending.  They specify work conflicts, health problems or transportation difficulties.  This is no judgment about why people choose not to attend.  Obviously, they are valid justifications that make worship attendance impossible.

Let's stipulate at this point regular worship attendance does not make someone a "good" person. That is judgmental.  But there are other signs, besides worship attendance, that signal a glacial shift in America's once sacred tradition of honoring God in private and public places.

The Ten Commandments are forbidden in courthouses.  Crosses have been removed as offensive.  Prayer in public schools is taboo.  Courts have decreed rules passed by Congress trump religious rights.  Bans on public Nativity scenes.  Subpoenas for pastors who oppose homosexuality.

For decades, there has been a secular campaign to strip America of any vestige or symbol of the Creator.  There have been a few courageous religious organizations that have battled the tide.  But truthfully there has been mostly benign acceptance.  A shrug.  A silent resignation.

Will Americans, shaken by the reality of our risky universe, stand up for religious liberty? Will they will again flock to houses of worship?  Will they become kinder, more compassionate, less selfish and lift their voices in praise of God?

If not now, when?

We have endured the agony of being separated from loved ones drawing their last breath.  Funerals are cancelled by social distancing, aggravating inconsolable grief.  Human lives have been reduced to government statistics. Numbing isolation threatens our collective mental health.

During the outbreak, Americans have placed their faith in scientists and the government.  The common plea is for a miracle vaccine that will chase the virus into oblivion.   God is nowhere in the public discussion. We should first and foremost focus our faith in God, the ultimate miracle worker.

If anything good can emerge from these virus, a revival of faith would be a welcome outcome.  This abhorrent virus won't be he last microbe to scourge the world.  Future ones might be worse.  Let's not wait for the next global affliction or terrorist strike to turn toward our Creator in faithful worship.  

An Open Letter To My Fellow Americans

An Open Letter To My Fellow Americans:

Never in seven decades have I witnessed such panic, hysteria and anxiety.  This assessment is from a person who lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Vietnam War, the attacks of 9/11, the swine flu, SARS and Ebola pandemics and the deadliest U.S. influenza season (2016-2017) in four decades.

The America I know has always risen above any crisis with unmistakable resilience to carry on with life whatever the peril.  It is part of our DNA as Americans that in the darkest of hours we the people are a shining beacon of optimism.  Our indomitable spirit is what makes us Americans.

But since late January America has morphed into pessimistic defeatists, paralyzed by dread and delirium. This in no way demeans the health threat of the COVID-19 virus.  It is real, not some hoax.  However, the reaction--far from measured- has been disproportionate to the facts on the ground.

The following statistics are from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center as of March 16:

There have been 3,707 cases of the virus reported in 46 states and D.C.  There have been 69 fatalities. Most of the deaths (22) occurred in nursing homes in Washington state. King County in the state is the U.S. epicenter of the virus, where 35 deaths have been reported.

The scientific jury is still out on the death rate because many patients recover before they are even diagnosed with the virus.  That has made it difficult to judge how lethal the pandemic may be.  Therefore, speculation has replaced facts in raising alarm among the American public.

Perspective and context are needed most in the onslaught of incendiary news media reporting. The H1N1 Virus pandemic of 2009, commonly known as swine flu, resulted in the deaths of 12,469 Americans.  Sixty-one million contracted swine flu and 273,304 were hospitalized.

At the start of the outbreak, President Obama announced it was a health emergency.  However, he did not declare a national emergency until October 24, 2009, after at least 1,000 deaths had been reported in the U.S.  Viruses are not political in nature.  To treat disease as such is ghoulish.

To add further context, in 2009 CDC initially suggested districts to only shut their doors if a student contracted the disease but later reversed course and ordered schools closed. A swine flu vaccine did not even begin CDC trials until July 22, well after the virus had run its course.

No sporting leagues cancelled seasons.  Broadway did not go dark.  Conventions went on as planned.  America did what it always does.  People took precautions but refused to be cowed by the epidemic. In contrast, COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented shutdown of every aspect of American life.

How can this be justified?  It can not based on the known risks and facts.  But today's political climate is all about virtue signaling.  Once one sports league capitulated, the others acted like lemmings so as not to appear insensitive to the health issue.  It is a sign of today's cultural correctness.

Churches are scrubbing services.  Schools are shuttering.  St. Patrick's Day parades are erased. Restaurants and bars are closed.  The list goes on and on.  Each day brings another cancellation--not out of an "abundance of caution"--but borne out of a fear of lawsuits if opening triggers an outbreak.

Despite the lockdown of America, it has not quelled media speculation.  The once respected New York Times ran a scare mongering headline on Friday about the "Worst Case Estimates of the U.S. Coronavirus Deaths."  Other Chicken Littles are reporting the death count could soar to 150,000.

Despite the deliberately provocative reporting, the facts remain that most cases of the coronavirus are mild.  Most people infected with the flu like disease recover.  The majority of deaths have been in people 80+ years and older in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Yet millions of my fellow Americans are stockpiling toilet paper, disinfectant wipes, bottled water, hand sanitizers and respiratory masks.  In trips to three local grocery outlets this week, I found rows and rows of empty shelves where these products once were stocked.

The same news media that has driven the panic buying now has taken to scoffing at those who are swarming stores in a frenzied search for supplies.  What did they expect?  If you treat a pandemic as the Apocalypse, naturally people will react as if he world is nearing its end.

Americans have watched in horror as the stock market plummeted on panic selling.  Their companies have issued warnings of dire economic times ahead.  Financial analysts are predicting an economic Armageddon that will fuel a nightmarish recession.  Any wonder Americans are worried?

This man-made sabotage of the American economy will hurt the people who can least afford to do without a paycheck.  Hourly wage earners are the most vulnerable, particular those in food and beverage service industries and small businesses.  They may never recover economically. 

In our global economy, we can expect foreign born viruses to become a regular fixture of our world.  Will our current response to COVID-19 become the new normal?  I pray not because it means constant disruption, chaos and economic cataclysm.  Viruses will always be with us. 

I have a suggestion: let's issue a declaration of sanity in dealing with this virus.  Prudent steps should be taken.  But Americans do not succumb to boogiemen.  After September 11, we refused to be rattled by terrorists who killed 3,000 of our fellow citizens in a single day.  Remember?

After a temporary pause, Major League Baseball, the National Football League and Broadway were open for business.  The president encouraged Americans to demonstrate to those who would murder us that we would not be terrorized.  We would live unafraid, unbowed and free from fear.

This is unscientific research but I went to a high school baseball game right after the major sports leagues dove off the cliff.  The adults were joking about the pandemonium over the virus.  No one wore a mask, or refused to sit next to a stranger but many carried hand sanitizers. Folks were calm.

I believe most Americans actually feel the same about this virus.  They are the ones who don't spend all day in front of a television watching cable news. They don't wait for the government to tell them what to do in a crisis.  They use common sense and are not consumed by an unhealthy state of anxiety.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt, in his first inaugural address in 1933, reassured a deeply troubled nation in the throes of economic despair over the Great Depression,  that the "only thing we had to fear was fear itself."

That was wise counsel 87 years ago.  The president's words are even more appropriate today.

Respectfully,

Drew Roy

COVID-19: Shameless Media Fearmongers

Once the word "pandemic" was uttered the national news media's coverage of the coronavirus shifted into overdrive.  Each new case of the virus is breathtakingly reported.  Each flu-related death triggers a breaking news alert.  The media treatment is actually scarier than the pandemic.

This inflammatory reporting incited a full fledged panic attack.  Stock markets quaked in a selling frenzy, wiping out trillions in value. Businesses issued dire reports on future earnings amid supply chain disruptions.  The havoc sent the economy teetering on the brink of a recession. 

What was missing in the scorched earth news coverage was any sense of perspective.  Without a frame of reference, people became alarmed by what was reported to be an out-of-control, foreign-born, dangerously lethal, previously unknown virus, dubbed COVID-19.

But was the incendiary coverage justified?  Judge for yourself after a review of the facts.

Because the virus was birthed in China, home of the world's most secretive Communist regime, this heightened speculation about the number of cases, the cause of the virus and the death-rates.  Instead of exercising restraint in its coverage, the media has operated irresponsibility.

As just one example, based on specious sources there was a flurry of rumors that the coronavirus originated in a Chinese biochemical warfare lab located in Wuhan.  An analysis of the virus by 27 scientists and public health officials discredited the claim in the medical journal The Lancet.

In a crisis of this nature, facts really do matter.  According to the latest World Health Organization data, there have been 89,527 cases reported and 3,056 deaths worldwide.  However, all but 183 of those deaths have been in China, which has recorded the overwhelming majority of cases: 80,174.

The death rate in China's Habel Providence, the epicenter of the virus, now stands at 2.9% of the cases.  Although experts agree, that the figure is likely inflated by China's inability to diagnose and count thousands of mild cases in the early stages.  Outside Habel, the death rate is 0.3%.

The vast majority of those contaminated with the flu in China have only exhibited mild symptoms and most have recovered.  Of the confirmed cases in China, more than 81% are rated mild, according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cases have declined since February 12.

In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) figures show 43 cases out of a population of 320 million.  Seventeen people have been hospitalised with the virus and two deaths recorded. Ten states have identified coronavirus cases.

The figures do not include Americans contaminated with the virus who were residing in Habel Providence or quarantined on cruise ships.  Among those returning Americans, there were 48 confirmed cases of the virus.  Most of the cases (45) were from cruise ship travelers.

As with most flu viruses, the elderly, very young and immune compromised are most at risk.  The two U.S. deaths both occurred in elderly people. Healthy individuals are at a low risk.  That is why CDC officials continue to report there is a low risk of infection.   

COVID-19 officially became a pandemic because cases have been reported in 67 countries. That is the definition of a pandemic.  The word does not imply the virus cannot be halted.  Or that it is inevitable there will be an uncontainable outbreak.  There is reason for caution, but not panic.

In its reporting, many news outlets referenced the SARS virus outbreak in 2003 in an attempt to raise the spectre of a rampant killer.  But most neglected to mention the SARS pandemic infected 8,098 people globally causing 774 deaths.   That death rate was 0.09%, less than common influenza.

The most recent and deadliest pandemic was the H1N1 swine flu virus that claimed 575,400 deaths worldwide in 2009, according to the CDC.  The agency estimated 61 million people in the U.S. suffered from the virus that caused 12,469 deaths.

As these statistics and history show, over time most civilized countries have developed better science for detecting, treating and slowing down the spread of dangerous viruses.  Information and real time health data travels faster than in the past.  That aids health officials in their efforts to battle the virus.

While each new influenza-like virus grabs headlines, hardly any attention is paid to the garden variety virus that raises its ugly head every winter in the United States.  During most influenza seasons, the average death rate is 0.1% of Americans infected with the contagion.

Annual influenza outbreaks seldom make the news.  According to the CDC, from 2010 to 2016, annual flu-related deaths ranged from 12,000 to 56,000 during the period.  In the 2016-2017 flu season, the virus surged throughout the U.S., killing nearly 80,000, the highest toll in four decades.

During that flu season, 959,000 cases required hospitalization the CDC estimated.  One contributor may have been that only 59% of adults and 43% of children were inoculated with the flu vaccine.  That means a majority of young people and four-in-ten adults were left unprotected.

Do you recall around-the-clock news coverage of this epidemic?  Me neither.  That's why the reporting of COVID-19 stands out as an indictment of today's journalism as well as politicians who attempt to use the pandemic as an excuse to attack the administration for its handling of the crisis.

Media pundits are actually suggesting the virus may create an opening for Democrats to exploit against President in the 2020 election.  One reporter insisted on calling the contagion the Trump Virus. A health crisis should be met with bipartisanship, not political backbiting.

Democrat presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg has charged Mr. Trump with making "reckless cuts" to the CDC budget.  Associated Press (AP) fact-checkers called the allegation false.  "Financing for the CDC was increased in the last budget," AP reported.

Another unsubstantiated claim that the administration was responsible for a steady erosion in CDC grants to state and local governments to deal with pandemics.  Again AP disputed the allegation. The grant reductions were "set in motion by Congressional measures that predate Trump," AP explained.

Not satisfied, some reporters are demanding to know why a flu vaccine is not available to prevent the spread of COVID-19.  "What's taking so long?" they bellow.  The answer is months of research and human trials are required before vaccines are certified safe enough to use on the general population.

This is standard procedure.  In nearly every case, by the time the new vaccines are ready for public use most pandemics have already subsided with the return of warm weather.  Rather than hoping for a vaccine, there are many precautions a family can take to avoid the flu.

Cover your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze.  Wash your hands thoroughly and often.  Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.  Disinfect surfaces that other people touch.  And avoid crowds, particularly on cruise ships, which are breeding grounds for all types of infections.

I know those precautions sound trite.  But they are still the best protection from contracting the COVID-19 or any flu virus.  That is what the news media should be doing:  Educating the public instead of stirring up frenzied hysteria.  Fearmongers, not a virus,  are the biggest threat to America.