Scrutinizing Those US Economic Numbers

Flurries of numbers shower Americans each month when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unveils the latest economic data. The blizzard is left to the media and financial experts to interpret.  Too often, Americans are fed headline numbers and little else, instead of contextual clarity. 

Confusion has persisted about U.S. economic numbers since the Bureau of Labor began collecting and publishing employment and payroll data in October, 1915.  Over time, the methodologies and terminology have changed, adding to the public bewilderment.  

A looming presidential election likely will turn on economic issues, underscoring the importance of understanding the data.   Wall Street and the media appear to have little interest in peering beyond the numbers, based on current reporting and the rose-colored economic forecasts.

Amid the dizzying amount of economic data, here are some current headline numbers that are ripe for interpretation  

The pace of inflation is cooling.

The BLS reported inflation for August rose 0.6%, based on the Consumer Price Index.  The monthly increase follows 0.2% upticks in July and June. August numbers indicate that inflation may be heating up again. The government is quick to point out gasoline prices accounted for the lion's share of the gain.

The media dutifully reports the monthly data in headlines without the same attention to the 12-month change in inflation.  Prices have increased 3.7% since last August. That is higher than the 3.2% increase in July and 3.0% in June.  Clearly, inflation is proving to be stickier than experts forecast.

To justify the narrative that inflation is slowing, the media and Wall Street remind Americans the current inflation is lower than the 8.0% inflation rate for calendar year 2022.   True but hardly comforting to consumers. 

Whenever the CPI drives up inflation, the media and Wall Street turn to so-called core inflation, the preferred measurement for the Federal Reserve. Core inflation excludes prices for food and energy because of volatility.  Core inflation inched up 0.3% in August, which is 4.3% higher than August, 2022.

For average Americans, the core inflation number might as well be an unlisted telephone number.  Americans don't have the luxury of excluding energy and food from their budget.  

For further context, consider that inflation has risen 16% since January 2021, when prices roared at historic levels.  Most consumers cannot quote that number, but they know their household budgets have been impacted more than the 0.6% August increase.   

Workers wages are continuing to rise.

Americans' wages are riding an upward trajectory.   Beginning in April of 2021, wages and salaries have risen steadily more than 3.4% every month,  hitting 6.7% in July of 2022.  That same month inflation was 8.5%.  The latest available data for June shows wages and salaries climbed 4.7%.

February marked the first month since 2021 that wages grew faster than inflation, according to data compiled by Statista. 

For hourly workers, the wage growth has failed to keep up with inflation for most of this year.  June marked the first month weekly earnings rose faster than inflation.  The latest data from July revealed average hourly wages are up 1.1% on an annual basis.  

Hourly workers are falling further behind the inflation rate, which is the reason there are mushrooming demands from unions for higher wages.   

Rising wages is usually a positive sign, but inflation has made today's dollar worth less.  The BLS calculates that a dollar today only buys 88.6% of what it did in 2021. Inflation is sapping Americans purchasing power.  

Job growth points to a healthy economy.

The economy added 6.7 million jobs in 2021, the largest annual total in U.S. history. That was followed by an impressive gain of 4.5 million last year.  Year-to-date the economy has created 1.6 million jobs. That's a total for 12.8 million jobs in less than three years. An estimated 72% of the job growth represents jobs lost during the pandemic.   

Average monthly job growth has moderated this year, despite the addition of 1.6 million jobs.  The average monthly growth rate this year is 258,000 compared to nearly 400,000 last year.  In the most recent report, the economy added 187,000 jobs in August.  Job growth is decelerating.   

Last year's booming job market wasn't as robust as the monthly numbers published by the media.  That's because the BLS adjusts the figures each month.  The trend has been that the adjustments wind up reducing actual job growth.  The media usually downplays the data or ignores it.

For example, in March the BLS revised the job growth downward by 306,000.  Do you recall reading or hearing that number?  June and July numbers were reduced by a combined 110,000.  Over the last three months, the economy recorded a modest average monthly gain of 150,000 after adjustments. 

Unemployment is at historic lows.

In the latest report, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8%.  The rate inched up from July's 3.5%.  That still reflects a healthy job market.  However, the BLS headline number for unemployment rate is just one indicator of employment.  And it may not be the best. 

A person out of work may not be counted as unemployed. The BLS unemployment figure does not include the following: 1. Millions of so-called discouraged workers. 2. The underemployed--part-time workers who prefer a full-time job. 3. Those who don't have a job but claim they have looked for one in the past four weeks.

To get an honest picture of the employment landscape, the BLS publishes a U-6 unemployment figure that measures the total number of employees who are part of the labor force, but without a job. For example, the U-6 rate was 7.2% in August, slightly higher than the July figure of 7.1%. 

However, you will never read or hear about the U-6 data because it is entombed  in rows of tables that are included in the monthly BLS unemployment report. 

By now, you may be shaking your head and asking: "Does any of this really matter?"  This writer believe it does.  We are a nation of economic illiterates, unfortunately.  (Excluding of course you dear reader.) That matters when the economy is the top issue with voters in most years.

Americans don't have to be economic experts.  But an informed voter is best for our democracy. And the media and Wall Street are flubbing their responsibility to provide context and interpretation to help Americans digest the government data.

U.S. Economy Slips Into Recession Quicksand

The U.S. economy is sinking into a recession, a persistent, widespread contraction of economic activity.  It will not become official until July 28 after the government releases the data for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  However, the economic storm clouds have been forming this entire year. 

In the face of warning signs, economists, market analysts and the Biden Administration never wavered from rosy economic predictions. Even when the GDP declined 1.6% in the first quarter, they spun the news as a speed bump. The economy was poised for a rebound.    

There will be a rude awakening when the second quarter GDP data drops on Wall Streets this week. The Atlanta Federal Reserve, which tracks GDP weekly, is forecasting a 1.6% decline.  Negative growth in two consultive quarters meets the economic criteria for a recession. 

Experts assured Americans that inflation was only temporary.  The economy was just shaking off the cobwebs after the pandemic lockdown.  Recession was a distant chance. How did everyone from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to Wall Street get it so wrong?   

The answer: They viewed the current economic conditions through the lens of past economic recoveries. 

There has never been a volcanic disruption as what occurred in 2020 with the exception of the Great Depression.  The U.S. sustained massive job losses, extensive business closures, broken supply chains and the shutdown of manufacturing. This was unlike any past economic jolt.  

For months, the recession-deniers have pointed to strong job growth as a sign the economy is rebounding from the first quarter GDP doldrums.  In the past, job growth indicated a growing economy.  But the job figures are not a reliable predictor in the wake of the pandemic that shutdown the economy. 

The American economy lost 22 million jobs from February to April, 2020.  By the end of that year, there were still more than 11 million unemployed Americans.  In 2021, the economy added 6.7 million jobs. This year the job gains stand at 2.74 million.  That's 9.4 million jobs in one-and-a-half years. 

For the most part, these gains reflect people returning to their former jobs after being laid off. Most are not new jobs created by innovation or business investment, which would indicate growth. Federal Reserve data shows the number of workers today are 500,000 below the level in February, 2020.

In the midst of reported job gains, 11 million job openings remain unfilled, despite six million unemployed workers.  During the economic boom of 2019, job openings averaged 7 million.  America's labor supply has been depleted because fewer workers are in the job market.

The labor pool shortage may be partially attributed to the 2.4 million workers who retired early in the first 18-months of the pandemic. Total retirements from March 2020 to July 2021 reached 4.2 million. Anecdotal evidence suggests some retirees are re-entering the workforce due to inflation. 

A phenomenon know as the "Great Resignation" is also roiling the job market.  The BLS reports 47 million workers voluntarily quit their jobs in 2021.  The trend is likely to continue.  A McKinsey study finds 40% of workers and the self-employed expect to leave their jobs in the next three to six months.

Many take time off to re-evaluate their career options and personal priorities. If they return to a job, it usually is for better pay, more opportunities for advancement, improved work-life balance and job flexibility.  This constant churn in-and-out of the workforce helps explain the 11 million job openings. 

Confronted with this evidence, experts cite the low unemployment of 3.6% as as sign a recession is unlikely. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data does not count so-called discouraged workers or those "marginally" attached to the workforce who haven't sought a job in a month. 

Buried in the BLS statistical tables is a figure known as the U-6 data. The St. Louis Federal Reserve watches this number more closely than the headline figure generated by the government.  The metric measures real unemployment at 7.0%, by including discouraged and marginally attached workers.

Another measurement of economic activity is total retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending.  Retail sales ticked up 1% in May, but adjusted for 1.3% price inflation for the month, sales actually declined.  

Consumer spending is the best barometer of the economy, because it accounts for about 70% of the GDP.   Looking back, the feverish spending of late 2021 and earlier this year was predictable. 

The average American had saved 33% of household income during 2020, building a financial cushion. Coupled with stimulus payments, consumers were flush with cash. After paying off $82 billion in credit card debt in 2020, credit availability shored up consumer confidence to keep shelling out money. 

However, as inflation heated up, soaring to 9.1% recently, spending began tapering off over time.  Stimulus payments dried up.  Enhanced unemployment benefits ended. Americans began dipping into savings to sustain spending.  Today households  are saving just 4.4% of income.   

The latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows credit card debt jumped 20% in April (the latest figure available) to a near record of $1.103 trillion.   The Fed reports revolving debt and credit card balances combined skyrocketed 19.6% from the previous year in April. 

In another harbinger of a slowdown, June saw a 20-year low for home mortgage applications as average home prices hit a record.  A spike in interest rates, orchestrated by the Fed, discouraged many first-time homebuyers from purchasing a home.  Homebuilders are are preparing for a downturn. 

Perhaps, the clearest clue of economic trouble is Americans are cutting back on driving.  Motorists purchased almost 10% less fuel in the week ended July 9 and an estimated 7.8% less in the week ended July 16.  Gas prices are falling because inflated prices are curbing demand.  

With the spending binge ending, consumers are in a gloomy mood. Consumer Sentiment data tracked monthly by the University of Michigan reveals confidence has fallen to 51.1% from 81.2% just a year ago. When people feel less confident, it influences their spending and saving habits. 

Businesses are grappling with uncertainty too.  Microsoft, Tesla, Netflix, Google and J.P. Morgan head a list of business firms either laying off workers or reducing hiring. In May, the latest figure available, 1.4 million workers were laid off and discharged.  Jobless claims in June were the highest since January. 

Once the government data confirms what consumers already know, don't expect an about face from the experts or an admission of failure to forecast the recession.  The usual suspects, Wall Street and the administration, will begin preaching a recovery is just a quarter away.

No doubt, at some point, the economy will begin to right itself.  But the lingering question is: "How long will that take?" Be forewarned that no one really knows that answer, however, you can bet there will be plenty of forecasters touting a turnaround soon.   

Reopen Economy To Save American Lives

Now's the time for the American economy to be unplugged from the ventilator.  Without decisive action, the U.S. will plunge into the abyss of an economic depression that will ruin far more lives than Covid-19.  The longer the lockdown continues the country risks plummeting into financial ruin.

There are growing signs that Americans are fed up with the quarantine.  Protests are popping up in many cities.  For example, in Michigan thousand gathered to protest sweeping restrictions imposed by the governor.  Americans yearn to return to their jobs.  Politicians are starting to take notice.

A growing number of governors are contemplating reopening for business. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has announced a gradual plan to allow workers to return by Friday.  If it happens, there will be domino effect across the country.  States that remain shutdown will face criticism from voters. 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has raised impossible hurdles to any lifting of the lockdown.  She and other Democrats are demanding a "guarantee of a safe world" before returning to normalcy.  No doctor, scientist or politician can make such a guarantee.  The world, by nature, is not a safe place.

Governors understand better than Pelosi the inherent risks. They are staring at data that suggests an economic Armageddon will bankrupt their states. Even states whose economy was booming before the outbreak are not immune from an epic disaster for their workers.

At the current pace, COVID-19 will trigger the worst economic collapse in U.S. history.  Whole industries are on life support:  Travel, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, oil, hotels, tourist operators, cruise lines, conventions, food and beverage service and virtually every small business in America.

Small businesses under 500 workers, which employ half of the American workforce, are particularly vulnerable.  Most operate on a razor's edge between profitability and insolvency. The new Small Business Administration loan program will help cover some expenses but only about 50%.

Loans will not cover payments due suppliers, maintenance and loan repayments from previous borrowing. By some estimates, these small businesses generate 44% of the country's Gross Domestic Product, a measurement of economic output.  Many are in danger of permanent closure. 

Corporate furloughs are at historic levels.  Macy's has furloughed most of its 125,000 workers.  Boeing plans "voluntary" layoffs to slice its 160,000 workforce.  Walt Disney has furloughed 43,000 employees.  J.C. Penny is cleaving most of its 85,000 workforce. Furloughs will soon turn to layoffs.

The Department of Labor calculated a record-shattering 22 million Americans have applied for unemployment in the last four weeks.  For perspective, at the worst of the Great Depression there were 15 million unemployed.  In the 2008 financial meltdown, unemployment peaked at 9 million.

The current situation is unprecedented in American history. A stunning 13.25% of the workforce has disappeared from the rolls of the employed.  The country is losing 33,000 jobs every hour of every day right now.  Based on unofficial figures, experts estimate the current unemployment rate is 16%.

Unemployment is the tip of the iceberg.  Credit card companies and banks are holding their collective breaths in the face of a expected wave of defaults.  These institutions are extending credit for now, but at some point, borrowers will be required to repay.  Economic freefall will make it impossible.

At this juncture, household and business debt are already at historic highs.  Delinquency on student and auto loans is skyrocketing.  The spectre of a financial pandemic is real.  If you thought the last $700 billion government bailout in 2008 was unfathomable, just wait a few more months.

Economists are predicting the Gross Domestic Product will shrink by 25%-to-50% in the second quarter.  Any rebound depends on consumer spending, which represents about 68%-72% of the economy.  Bloated unemployment data offers little hope for an uptick in consumer spending.

That's causing hand wringing among states because economic decline equals less tax revenue.  An economic collapse will force steep government budget cuts. An even larger issue is state worker pension funds, estimated at $1.2 trillion in obligations.  Most state plans are underfunded now.

The American financial system is precariously nearing the precipice. Even the U.S. government cannot print enough money to paper over the looming disaster that will all but render a recovery a moot point.  These are dire times but most Americans are unaware of the scale of the consequences.

All the focus in the media has been on the toll of the virus and rightly so.  But workers have been forgotten in the stampede to staunch the virus.  No one appears concerned about what will happen to everyday, ordinary Americans.  This has been deliberate, especially by the mainstream media.

The nation is in uncharted territory.  The U.S. has never, repeat never, voluntarily shuttered business activity, even in world wars or during past pandemics.  Those experts predicting a sudden, rapid economic recovery are fool hearted.  A long, painful road awaits the economy and its workers.

No one, certainly not this journalist, is underestimating the risks of opening up America.  Precautions need to be in place: testing kits, thermometers, masks, appropriate distancing.  The timing should be dictated by scientific and economic experts, not by politically motivated guidelines in newspapers.

In states where the virus is scarcely present, people should be allowed to go back to work, open up shops and congregate in churches.  Wyoming, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and South Dakota come to mind. On the other hand, New York and California may need months before normalcy returns.

Some will read this and assume your writer has no empathy for the sick and dying.  Believe as you wish.  The real concern here is that by continuing a lockdown America will be forcing millions more than this virus affected to suffer lost of jobs, homes, cars, life savings, credit access and more.

Yet some politicians are huffing the country needs to remain in quarantine until a vaccine is readily available.  That could be months or even more than a year away based on the record of vaccine development for previous coronavirus contagions.  In a year, there will be no American economy.

Presidential candidate Joe Biden famously said this: "We need to accelerate the development and treatment (sic) of a vaccine.  Science takes time."  The nation does not have time to wait on the FDA and scientists to plod along using endless trials before approving any new drug or vaccine.

No one can deny there are risks to resuming commerce.  A second wave of virus cases.  A spike in hospitalizations.  Fatalities may continue.  There simply is no way to erase every risk no matter what criteria the nation uses for business resumption.  Even a zillion tests will not eliminate every risk. 

This isn't a choice between commerce and saving lives as some would construct it.  This is a choice about the best way to spare lives and prevent unparalleled economic agony.  It is not an either or proposition as politicians suggest.  Why can't we have both? We have done it before.

Of course, when the initial state resumes business the media will pounce on the first virus death that occurs.  The cry will be the governor has "blood on her (or his) hands."  This hyper partisan nation knows no shame. Ignore the politicians and media invested in promoting economic bondage. 

When this virus recedes into history, the prediction here is a day of reckoning is coming when American anger turns on politicians, especially governors and mayors who dictated arbitrary  restrictions that defied common sense.  The uproar will be thunderous and will have repercussions.

The American Job Machine Purring

Nattering nabobs of negativism cloaked in coats of doom croaked like frogs when the American jobs figures were released this month.  The economy added "only" 75,000 jobs in May, they grouched.  Ersatz economists, media carpers and political pundits forecast the demise of the economic revival.

The scale of deliberate deception would make Herr Joseph Goebbels blanch.  Despite the collaborative clamor, rumors of the death of the economic recovery are greatly exaggerated.  If you doubt it, spend a few minutes delving behind the job numbers.  No media person will do it.

As a primer, job additions are a popular test of the country's economic health published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  It tracks the total number of people being paid for work.  Often it is misinterpreted as a measurement of how many jobs industry and government created.

With that perspective, scrutiny of the May data reveals a very different interpretation than what has been offered by the cynical skeptics.  Here is an abbreviated version of what is happening: America is running out of qualified workers for an expanding number of jobs.  

The data confirms the economy is soaking up most of the labor pool, including many who had given up looking for jobs. In the last 12 months, the number of involuntary part-time workers has declined by 565,000.  That means people who were forced to work part-time, have found full-time jobs.

Since the end of the 2016, the unemployment rolls have thinned by 1,667,000 in 17 months.  The unemployment rate at the end of May stood at 3.6 percent, the lowest in 49-years. Unemployment for minorities, African-Americans (6.2%) and Hispanics (4.2%) are at historic troughs.

Only one demographic continues to experience stubbornly high unemployment: teens aged 16-19.  Unemployment averages 12 percent.  It is no coincidence they are the least educated and most unskilled in the labor force.  Fewer job opportunities exist for this group in the new economy. 

The government calculates there were 7.4 million job openings at the end of April, the latest available data.  It marks 14 consecutive months with more job openings than unemployed people.  Further evidence that there are just not enough workers to take advantage of the sonic boom in jobs.

The Labor Participation Rate, a measurement of the people aged 16-to-64 employed or seeking work, has nudged up to 62.8 percent, compared to 62.4 percent at the end of 2016.  Robust hiring has increased the size of the American workforce by 395,000 in 17 months.

According to BLS statistics, the economy has added 5,892,000 jobs since 2016.  During the previous eight years (96 months), job growth was 10,389,000.  This is an apples-to-apples comparison because the same government data source was used to calculate both figures.

To comprehend job additions, it helps to understand the derivation of the number.  The BLS tallies total hires and subtracts the job separations, which includes layoffs, firings, retirements, and employee resignations.  Total separations have remained flat while hiring has expanded.

Prophets of doom rushed to judgment on May figures.  Logically, it is an aberration.  The average monthly measure since the first of the year has averaged 164,000 jobs.  Historically, job growth figures between 100,000 and 150,000 represent a positive trend for the economy. 

The denizens of darkness have seeded the media with propaganda that low-skilled workers have been left behind.  The New York Federal Reserve has reported that for the first time in decades, it is harder to find blue-collar workers than white-collar prospects.  Low-skilled workers are in demand.

May wages for non-supervisory workers jumped 3.4 percent.  This marks the 10th consecutive month of rising pay after a dismal stretch of eight years when wage raises never attained the three percent level.  Wages rose for workers in hotels, restaurants and retail, traditional low-paying jobs.

The chronic complainers incorrectly claim job openings are mostly low wage opportunities.  Not according to the New York Fed.  Their data validates that average starting wage for full-time employees hiked from $58,035 last November to $66,415 in March, the most recent figures.

In review, job creation is pulsing.  Unemployment is sinking.  Wages are swelling.  Labor participation is ascending.  More people are joining the workforce.  More jobs are going unfilled, because hirings are depleting the labor pool.  So what's the beef about May's one-month snapshot?

The current economic surge has proven beyond a doubt that everyone, the under employed and professionals, benefit from roaring growth.  Unlike wealth redistribution and government handouts,  economic prosperity fuels competition for employees, which advantages all American workers.

Feds' Unemployment Figure Is A Big Lie

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued its February unemployment figures, the media, the White House and Wall Street celebrated with backflips, fist-bumps and chest-pounding.  The cause for jubilation was a government report that showed the jobless rate had dipped to 5.5 percent.

Their joy was not dampened by the continuing softness in the economic recovery.  In government circles, these numbers are evidence that the American economy is firing on all cylinders. Economic reality, however, is impossible to define with a single statistic. 

The depressing truth is that the unemployment number doesn't accurately reflect the job situation in the United States.  In fact, the chief executive officer of the nation's leading polling organization offered a harsh assessment of the federal unemployment figure earlier this year.

"There's no other way to say this," cautioned Jim Clifton after the December report.  "The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie."

Clifton knows what he is talking about.  His Gallup firm publishes reams of data on the country's job situation.  Their figures are often cited by money management professionals and others because many believe the numbers are more accurate than the government statistics.

For the record, Gallup's latest 30-day rolling average pegs the current unemployment rate at 6.4 percent.  The number of "underemployed" Americans is a staggering 15.7 percent of the workforce.  These people are often working part-time because they can't get a full-time job.

In his appraisal of the current job environment, Clifton noted that as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or "severely" underemployed.  "Trust me," Clifton said.  "The vast majority of them aren't throwing parties to toast falling unemployment."

A cursory glance through the BLS data incontestably supports Clifton's viewpoint.  For example, there are 30.4 million Americans who have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer.  These so-called long-term unemployed are not counted in the government's official jobless percentage.

Burrowing in the data, the employment picture turns fuzzy when you discover that the number of part-time workers is growing.  There are 20 million Americans in part-time jobs, an increase of more than a 400,000 workers from January's count.

Of those in part-time jobs, nearly 7 million (6.7 million) were forced into these circumstances because they were laid-off or their hours were reduced for a variety of reasons.  These hard-working Americans want full-time work, but they cannot find it.  They are not counted in the government's jobless rate.

Another disturbing trend is the disappearance of the 40-hour work week.  In February, the average weekly hours worked in non-government jobs was 34.6 hours, the fifth straight month it has remained at this level.  This helps explain why wages have stagnated as the economy has struggled.

If that isn't enough to depress you, then consider that the number of people not in the workforce has continued to climb.  There are now 92.8 million Americans currently not in the labor force.  The labor participation rate, 62.8 percent, is the lowest since March of 1978.

By way of explanation, the labor participation rate is the percentage of working-age persons in the economy who are either employed or unemployed but looking for a job.  Typically, "working-age persons" are defined as people between the ages of 16 and 64.

Why are the numbers of people in the labor force shrinking?  Since the recession, more Americans are opting to return to school, to declare themselves disabled or to stay a home rather than work. Economists blame bleak job prospects for this trend.  

The United States, once the world leader in labor participation, has fallen among the also-rans.  Canada, Australia, Belgium and even Finland have rates higher than our country.  In fact, since 2000, the U.S. labor participation rate has tumbled from 67.3 percent to the current 62.8.

Even worse, about 12.2 million Americans have left the workforce since President Obama assumed the Oval Office in January, 2009. You won't hear that number ever quoted in the mainstream media's reports about the state of the economy.

The number of workers euphemistically known as "marginally attached to the labor force" also increased.  There were 2.2 million people who did not actively look for work in the last four weeks for reasons ranging from family responsibilities to ill health.  They are not counted in the jobless rate.

These figures and others underscore the disconnect Americans feel when they hear the feds' unemployment statistic.  The government number suggests the jobs outlook is improving, but for most Americans, there is little reason to cheer.

In his review of the current economic situation, Gallup's Clifton has called on "the talking heads at the White House and Wall Street to start reporting the truth" about jobs and employment in the country. Unfortunately, that is not likely to happen until a new president is sworn into office in 2017.

As long as Barrack Obama occupies the White House, the myth of America's recovery will continue to be propagated by his acolytes in the media and echoed by the Wall Street titans eager to convince investors that the economy has never been better.

To quote Jim Clifton, it is all a Big Lie.

Don't Be Fooled By Deceitful Unemployment Rates

U6 may sound like the name of a World War II German submarine, but it holds the key to unlocking the real unemployment figures in the United States.  Yet the mainstream media omits the U6 number when it reports jobless rates because it does not fit the narrative of an improving economy.

By way of explanation, U6 refers to one of several formulae the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to calculate the nation's unemployment rate.  Under the Obama Administration, the bureau has camouflaged the U6  measurement in a stack of statistics, hoping it will be overlooked. 

Under the U6 calculation, the country's unemployment rate for December stood at 15.2 percent.  This measurement includes not only Americans unable to find work, but those who have given up seeking employment as well as people who want full-time positions but have settled for part-time jobs.

When President Obama assumed office in 2008, the U6 jobless rate was 8.8 percent.  It reached its zenith in October of 2009 when it soared to 17.4 percent, a level not seen since the Great Depression. However, most media outlets either buried the number or never reported it at the time.

Instead, the media and the Bureau of Labor Statistics tout what is known as the U3 unemployment rate.   This formula considers only unemployed Americans actively seeking work.   Those people with no job, but not looking for employment, are not counted.

In many cases, these workers have given up because they believe their search for employment would be futile.  They have cause for pessimism.  According to the latest government figures, there are more than 4.5 unemployed people for every job created by the economy. 

Using the "official" U3 measurement, the current unemployment rate is 8.5 percent.  That is a far cry from the real number of 15.2 percent.  But it shores up the media's argument on the president's behalf that the economy is trending in the right direction.

However, this ignores the fact that even under the "official" measurement there are still 23.7 million Americans out of work. Since December of 2007, the U.S. economy has shed 6 million jobs. Last year the country added 1.6 million jobs.  At that growth rate, economic prosperity will remain elusive for years.

Finagling the unemployment rate isn't the only fraud the media has perpetrated.  News outlets also have taken to trumpeting private-sector hiring numbers. However, the media conveniently fails to mention that most new jobs being added are "low wage" positions, according to the Labor Bureau.  

In recent months, the media has latched on to declining jobless claims to buttress the notion of economic recovery.  Each month's tally is breathlessly recited.  However, news outlets fail to report that seasonal hiring has been mostly responsible for the improvement.

In other cases, the media is indifferent to upward revisions in economic numbers.   For instance, the November jobless rate of 8.6 percent recently was revised to 8.7 percent but the change escaped media attention until the more favorable December figures were issued this month.  Coincidence?

None of this should surprise astute observers.  Big media is heavily invested in President Obama's reelection.   They will go to any length to secure a second term for the president, even if it means torpedoing the "real" unemployment numbers.

When Numbers Lie: Unemployment Data Exposed

Headline writers had a heyday bannering the latest employment numbers. The media, speaking with one voice, proclaimed the new data from the Labor Department was proof that the economy was off life support and on the road to recovery. In fact, Reuters went so far as to report that "government support" was the reason the employment figures experienced an uptick.

Apparently, it didn't dawn on anyone in the media to read the entire report from the Labor Department. Had any of these lazy journalists bothered to do a little digging, it would have become apparent that the employment numbers exposed the soft under belly of the Obama recovery scheme. Unemployment actually rose, but you would never know by reading or listening to news reporters and anchors, the vast majority of whom know nothing about economics.

First, let's set the record straight. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment in April climbed from 9.7 percent to 9.9. percent. In human terms, 15.3million Americans are out of work. That fact was intentionally buried on page three of the previously cited Reuters story. Page three! I recall the days when any hike in the unemployment number was greeted with screaming headlines on the front page.

As you pore over the data, there are other statistics that practically leap off the spreadsheet. For example, the number of people who have been out of work more than 27weeks now represents a staggering 45.9 percent of the total unemployed. That is the highest it has even been since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began keeping records. It means that as people lose their jobs, they are finding it nearly impossible to find opportunities in this economy.

Even the 9.9 percent unemployment figure disguises the true health of employment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not include in that percentage those workers who have quit looking for a job. Nor does it add in the those who want full time employment, but are forced to accept part-time work to make ends meet. If you include those two segments of the population, the actual unemployment percentage rose to 17.1 percent from 16.9 percent in March. This is a broad measurement that more accurately reflects the country's jobless situation.

Yet despite this overwhelming evidence the economy remains sick, every single news organization led off their reports with the fact that employers added 290,000 jobs in April. Most news headlines prattled about how employment surged last month. In its employment summary, the Bureau of Labor Statistics credited the payroll increase to Federal government hiring and the addition of temporary Census workers. These two facts are no where to be found in the Reuters story, nor in most other media accounts.

All of this proves that numbers do not lie. But there can be no doubt that the news people who write and speak about these issues do use figures to conceal the truth. When the supposed truth-tellers in our society, the news media, contrive to use statistics to paint a lie about the country's economy, the public is not served. It is little wonder that public distrust of the media grows wider each day. More than anything else, that explains why news media providers are dying.