Covid 19: The Facts The Media Won't Report

Americans grappling with the Coronavirus need facts instead of half-baked worst case scenarios.  The news media in collusion with politicians continue to sow seeds of fear, paralyzing the nation, promoting hoarding of food and condemning anyone voicing optimism instead of gloom.

The disinformation avalanche among dubious scientists, politically active doctors, past administration officials, uninformed journalists and the World Health Organization (WHO) has overwhelmed the public with a dizzying array of conflicting reports and dire projections.

In point of fact, the head of WHO has warned of a massive "infodemic", an overabundance of data and information, some accurate and most inaccurate, that makes it difficult for "people to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when we need it."  Amen.

Most worst case scenarios are based on models that assume minimal government intervention, hospital bed shortages, doctors too sick to treat patients, lack of a strict quarantine and no school closures.  Using this model, a European journalist projected 100 million cases.  This is not credible.  

The news media is the most unreliable source of unbiased, scientific information and data.  My advice is tune it out.  Turn to the experts in infectious diseases.  Those include Johns Hopkins University, the National Institute of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Using the data from those three sources, here are facts the mainstream media, including Fox News, have not reported in their haste to dish up around-the-clock, audience boosting, Apocalyptic  perspectives on COVID-19. Note: All data below is as of March 21 from CDC, Johns Hopkins and NIH.

•  83% of all the deaths reported have been in just four countries: China, Italy, Spain and Iran.
• 57% of all the cases worldwide have been reported in those same four countries.
• 94,176 individuals globally have recovered from the virus without complications.
• The fatality rate worldwide is 0.4%, one of the least lethal viruses in recent times.
• The worldwide death rate for those 80+ is 14.8%.
• Infected patients over age 65 account for 80% of U.S. deaths.
• The current fatality rate in the U.S. is .01%, identical to the seasonal flu deaths (.01%).

Those highest risk of infection are elderly, especially those with with preexisting conditions.  Here are the death rates for those seniors, calculated by Worldometer a respected reference website. The stats are fatality rates for those infected with the virus with the following preexisting conditions:

• Cardiovascular Disease  13.2%
• Diabetes 9.2%
• Hypertension  8.4%
• Chronic Respiratory Disease 8.0%
• Cancer 7.6%

These are facts not hyperbole.  The numbers cited above clearly indicate most Americans are not at a high risk even if that contract the virus. That fact has been absent from most news articles and from many medical experts rhapsodizing on television.

Yet alarmists persist, in spite of the statistics, claiming this virus is more deadly than any we have faced.  This is patently false.  The SARS death rate was 9.6% and MERS was 34%.  Even though COVID 19 rates are in flux, credible sources put the worldwide fatality rate at 0.4%. 

In an effort to make the current crisis appear likely to escalate, some health officials are warning this could be another 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic that killed 50 million people worldwide and infected 500 million individuals.  About 675,000 Americans died of complications from the Spanish Flu.

Certainly, those are frightening numbers.  However, what the experts do not tell you is that comparing the health care in 1918 to today is akin to the comparing automobiles from that era to the present. To being with, there were no vaccines and no antibiotics to fight the infection in 1918.

Health care was limited to non-pharmaceutical intervention.  In other words, people sheltered in place.  That was the only available tool to fight the spread of the disease.  The number of hospitals in the U.S. in 1918 is dwarfed by the modern facilities we have today in the country.

Any "expert" using the 1918 virus as a predictor of what will happen in America today is an irresponsible charlatan.  

The view of many politically motivated journalists and those who have lobbied for a Draconian lockdown of America can be summarized in this opinion piece from Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan who penned the following:

"Is all this an overreaction?  If it is, we'll recover.  If we're too cautions we'll realize after a while and we'll all get angry at the economic cost of it and have big arguments and fights.  But we'll be here to argue and fight."

This tortured logic, which has been repeated often by politicians, exhibits a callous disregard for the millions of Americans who will be laid off, unable to feed their families, suffer economic hardships, forfeit their life savings in the stock market, lose their homes or be forced on welfare.

These average Americans are viewed by the media as collateral damage. But isn't it interesting that every sports superstar or Hollywood celebrity who contracts the virus becomes "breaking news."  These folks have fortunes to sustain them whatever the adversity.  Others have no safety net. 

While the media and critics continue to complain about the lack of a vaccine, here is a sobering observation from Johns Hopkins.  "A new vaccines might be at least 12 to 18 months away though new drug treatments will likely come sooner," the School of Public Health reported on its website.

The good news is that Johns Hopkins is leading a pioneering effort using plasma recovered from survivors of the Coronavirus as a treatment for those infected as well as a prevention of infection.  With cooperation from the FDA, the plasma treatment could be rolled out in three to four weeks.

This strategy is already being used in China, which has shipped plasma to Italy. Johns Hopkins experts say the plasma is very safe because it is screened for bloodborne pathogens.  Blood transfusions are some of the most regulated industries in the U.S. and one of the safest.

Early results also show that a common drug used to treat malaria offers promise in arresting he Coronavirus.  The drug has the advantage of already being approved by the FDA and supplies are readily available throughout the country.  Testing and trails have begun in earnest.  

These examples are evidence that America is not standing still waiting for some miracle to spare us from the Coronavirus.  The entire scientific community, pharmaceutical companies and global healthcare institutions are actively racing to find a treatment and a vaccine.

Americans need to be informed that once this epidemic subsides that the risk of future pandemics is mushrooming every year with global business and pleasure travel, worldwide supply chains where medicines and health products and other goods are regularly transported across borders.

The incidence of infectious disease calamities has more than doubled from the 1940's to the 1960's, according to EcoHealth Alliance, a New York based nonprofit research group.  The rates of such incidents surged in the 1980's with the advent of HIV and is escalating, the group reports.

This century alone the world has confronted a legion of viral scares, including SARS in 2002 and 2003, the swine flu (H1N1) in 2009, MERS in 2012, Ebola in 2014 to 2016, Zika in 2015 and Dengue fever in 2016. The United States survived these outbreaks without a nationwide lockdown.

America and the world needs a post mortem after the Coronavirus subsides to assess how we dealt with the pandemic without playing the blame game.  What can we do next time to minimize economic and social disruption and still protect people?  That should be the objective of any plan.      

If there is a beacon of hope in this current panic, it has been the response of average Americans.  Teachers are preparing lunches for school children who depend on this meal. One Texas school teacher is hosting a Facebook video to teach homebound kids to play chess.

Restaurants are offering take-out food to keep their businesses running and provide employment for their hourly wage workers.  Students in a small Nebraska community are making get well cards for those with the virus.  Pharmacies are open, dispensing critical medications to sick people.  

The Food Bank and extraordinary volunteers are distributing groceries to shut-ins and the elderly.  Churches are conducting online services.  I have observed kindnesses of complete strangers who share their food, toilet paper and disinfectants.  This should make everyone proud to be an American.

And let's not forget the real heroes--those doctors, nurses, medical assistants, hospital emergency room personnel and other healthcare workers who are on the frontlines in the battle against this virus. They have put their own health at risk to save others.  There is no more noble sacrifice.    

Our resilient nation will survive this emergency just as we always have.  Put your faith in God and not in the government to end this trauma.  He remains our eternal hope. This trial too shall pass. After it does, let a grateful nation bend its knees in praise of our Creator.

An Open Letter To My Fellow Americans

An Open Letter To My Fellow Americans:

Never in seven decades have I witnessed such panic, hysteria and anxiety.  This assessment is from a person who lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Vietnam War, the attacks of 9/11, the swine flu, SARS and Ebola pandemics and the deadliest U.S. influenza season (2016-2017) in four decades.

The America I know has always risen above any crisis with unmistakable resilience to carry on with life whatever the peril.  It is part of our DNA as Americans that in the darkest of hours we the people are a shining beacon of optimism.  Our indomitable spirit is what makes us Americans.

But since late January America has morphed into pessimistic defeatists, paralyzed by dread and delirium. This in no way demeans the health threat of the COVID-19 virus.  It is real, not some hoax.  However, the reaction--far from measured- has been disproportionate to the facts on the ground.

The following statistics are from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center as of March 16:

There have been 3,707 cases of the virus reported in 46 states and D.C.  There have been 69 fatalities. Most of the deaths (22) occurred in nursing homes in Washington state. King County in the state is the U.S. epicenter of the virus, where 35 deaths have been reported.

The scientific jury is still out on the death rate because many patients recover before they are even diagnosed with the virus.  That has made it difficult to judge how lethal the pandemic may be.  Therefore, speculation has replaced facts in raising alarm among the American public.

Perspective and context are needed most in the onslaught of incendiary news media reporting. The H1N1 Virus pandemic of 2009, commonly known as swine flu, resulted in the deaths of 12,469 Americans.  Sixty-one million contracted swine flu and 273,304 were hospitalized.

At the start of the outbreak, President Obama announced it was a health emergency.  However, he did not declare a national emergency until October 24, 2009, after at least 1,000 deaths had been reported in the U.S.  Viruses are not political in nature.  To treat disease as such is ghoulish.

To add further context, in 2009 CDC initially suggested districts to only shut their doors if a student contracted the disease but later reversed course and ordered schools closed. A swine flu vaccine did not even begin CDC trials until July 22, well after the virus had run its course.

No sporting leagues cancelled seasons.  Broadway did not go dark.  Conventions went on as planned.  America did what it always does.  People took precautions but refused to be cowed by the epidemic. In contrast, COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented shutdown of every aspect of American life.

How can this be justified?  It can not based on the known risks and facts.  But today's political climate is all about virtue signaling.  Once one sports league capitulated, the others acted like lemmings so as not to appear insensitive to the health issue.  It is a sign of today's cultural correctness.

Churches are scrubbing services.  Schools are shuttering.  St. Patrick's Day parades are erased. Restaurants and bars are closed.  The list goes on and on.  Each day brings another cancellation--not out of an "abundance of caution"--but borne out of a fear of lawsuits if opening triggers an outbreak.

Despite the lockdown of America, it has not quelled media speculation.  The once respected New York Times ran a scare mongering headline on Friday about the "Worst Case Estimates of the U.S. Coronavirus Deaths."  Other Chicken Littles are reporting the death count could soar to 150,000.

Despite the deliberately provocative reporting, the facts remain that most cases of the coronavirus are mild.  Most people infected with the flu like disease recover.  The majority of deaths have been in people 80+ years and older in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Yet millions of my fellow Americans are stockpiling toilet paper, disinfectant wipes, bottled water, hand sanitizers and respiratory masks.  In trips to three local grocery outlets this week, I found rows and rows of empty shelves where these products once were stocked.

The same news media that has driven the panic buying now has taken to scoffing at those who are swarming stores in a frenzied search for supplies.  What did they expect?  If you treat a pandemic as the Apocalypse, naturally people will react as if he world is nearing its end.

Americans have watched in horror as the stock market plummeted on panic selling.  Their companies have issued warnings of dire economic times ahead.  Financial analysts are predicting an economic Armageddon that will fuel a nightmarish recession.  Any wonder Americans are worried?

This man-made sabotage of the American economy will hurt the people who can least afford to do without a paycheck.  Hourly wage earners are the most vulnerable, particular those in food and beverage service industries and small businesses.  They may never recover economically. 

In our global economy, we can expect foreign born viruses to become a regular fixture of our world.  Will our current response to COVID-19 become the new normal?  I pray not because it means constant disruption, chaos and economic cataclysm.  Viruses will always be with us. 

I have a suggestion: let's issue a declaration of sanity in dealing with this virus.  Prudent steps should be taken.  But Americans do not succumb to boogiemen.  After September 11, we refused to be rattled by terrorists who killed 3,000 of our fellow citizens in a single day.  Remember?

After a temporary pause, Major League Baseball, the National Football League and Broadway were open for business.  The president encouraged Americans to demonstrate to those who would murder us that we would not be terrorized.  We would live unafraid, unbowed and free from fear.

This is unscientific research but I went to a high school baseball game right after the major sports leagues dove off the cliff.  The adults were joking about the pandemonium over the virus.  No one wore a mask, or refused to sit next to a stranger but many carried hand sanitizers. Folks were calm.

I believe most Americans actually feel the same about this virus.  They are the ones who don't spend all day in front of a television watching cable news. They don't wait for the government to tell them what to do in a crisis.  They use common sense and are not consumed by an unhealthy state of anxiety.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt, in his first inaugural address in 1933, reassured a deeply troubled nation in the throes of economic despair over the Great Depression,  that the "only thing we had to fear was fear itself."

That was wise counsel 87 years ago.  The president's words are even more appropriate today.

Respectfully,

Drew Roy

COVID-19: Shameless Media Fearmongers

Once the word "pandemic" was uttered the national news media's coverage of the coronavirus shifted into overdrive.  Each new case of the virus is breathtakingly reported.  Each flu-related death triggers a breaking news alert.  The media treatment is actually scarier than the pandemic.

This inflammatory reporting incited a full fledged panic attack.  Stock markets quaked in a selling frenzy, wiping out trillions in value. Businesses issued dire reports on future earnings amid supply chain disruptions.  The havoc sent the economy teetering on the brink of a recession. 

What was missing in the scorched earth news coverage was any sense of perspective.  Without a frame of reference, people became alarmed by what was reported to be an out-of-control, foreign-born, dangerously lethal, previously unknown virus, dubbed COVID-19.

But was the incendiary coverage justified?  Judge for yourself after a review of the facts.

Because the virus was birthed in China, home of the world's most secretive Communist regime, this heightened speculation about the number of cases, the cause of the virus and the death-rates.  Instead of exercising restraint in its coverage, the media has operated irresponsibility.

As just one example, based on specious sources there was a flurry of rumors that the coronavirus originated in a Chinese biochemical warfare lab located in Wuhan.  An analysis of the virus by 27 scientists and public health officials discredited the claim in the medical journal The Lancet.

In a crisis of this nature, facts really do matter.  According to the latest World Health Organization data, there have been 89,527 cases reported and 3,056 deaths worldwide.  However, all but 183 of those deaths have been in China, which has recorded the overwhelming majority of cases: 80,174.

The death rate in China's Habel Providence, the epicenter of the virus, now stands at 2.9% of the cases.  Although experts agree, that the figure is likely inflated by China's inability to diagnose and count thousands of mild cases in the early stages.  Outside Habel, the death rate is 0.3%.

The vast majority of those contaminated with the flu in China have only exhibited mild symptoms and most have recovered.  Of the confirmed cases in China, more than 81% are rated mild, according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cases have declined since February 12.

In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) figures show 43 cases out of a population of 320 million.  Seventeen people have been hospitalised with the virus and two deaths recorded. Ten states have identified coronavirus cases.

The figures do not include Americans contaminated with the virus who were residing in Habel Providence or quarantined on cruise ships.  Among those returning Americans, there were 48 confirmed cases of the virus.  Most of the cases (45) were from cruise ship travelers.

As with most flu viruses, the elderly, very young and immune compromised are most at risk.  The two U.S. deaths both occurred in elderly people. Healthy individuals are at a low risk.  That is why CDC officials continue to report there is a low risk of infection.   

COVID-19 officially became a pandemic because cases have been reported in 67 countries. That is the definition of a pandemic.  The word does not imply the virus cannot be halted.  Or that it is inevitable there will be an uncontainable outbreak.  There is reason for caution, but not panic.

In its reporting, many news outlets referenced the SARS virus outbreak in 2003 in an attempt to raise the spectre of a rampant killer.  But most neglected to mention the SARS pandemic infected 8,098 people globally causing 774 deaths.   That death rate was 0.09%, less than common influenza.

The most recent and deadliest pandemic was the H1N1 swine flu virus that claimed 575,400 deaths worldwide in 2009, according to the CDC.  The agency estimated 61 million people in the U.S. suffered from the virus that caused 12,469 deaths.

As these statistics and history show, over time most civilized countries have developed better science for detecting, treating and slowing down the spread of dangerous viruses.  Information and real time health data travels faster than in the past.  That aids health officials in their efforts to battle the virus.

While each new influenza-like virus grabs headlines, hardly any attention is paid to the garden variety virus that raises its ugly head every winter in the United States.  During most influenza seasons, the average death rate is 0.1% of Americans infected with the contagion.

Annual influenza outbreaks seldom make the news.  According to the CDC, from 2010 to 2016, annual flu-related deaths ranged from 12,000 to 56,000 during the period.  In the 2016-2017 flu season, the virus surged throughout the U.S., killing nearly 80,000, the highest toll in four decades.

During that flu season, 959,000 cases required hospitalization the CDC estimated.  One contributor may have been that only 59% of adults and 43% of children were inoculated with the flu vaccine.  That means a majority of young people and four-in-ten adults were left unprotected.

Do you recall around-the-clock news coverage of this epidemic?  Me neither.  That's why the reporting of COVID-19 stands out as an indictment of today's journalism as well as politicians who attempt to use the pandemic as an excuse to attack the administration for its handling of the crisis.

Media pundits are actually suggesting the virus may create an opening for Democrats to exploit against President in the 2020 election.  One reporter insisted on calling the contagion the Trump Virus. A health crisis should be met with bipartisanship, not political backbiting.

Democrat presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg has charged Mr. Trump with making "reckless cuts" to the CDC budget.  Associated Press (AP) fact-checkers called the allegation false.  "Financing for the CDC was increased in the last budget," AP reported.

Another unsubstantiated claim that the administration was responsible for a steady erosion in CDC grants to state and local governments to deal with pandemics.  Again AP disputed the allegation. The grant reductions were "set in motion by Congressional measures that predate Trump," AP explained.

Not satisfied, some reporters are demanding to know why a flu vaccine is not available to prevent the spread of COVID-19.  "What's taking so long?" they bellow.  The answer is months of research and human trials are required before vaccines are certified safe enough to use on the general population.

This is standard procedure.  In nearly every case, by the time the new vaccines are ready for public use most pandemics have already subsided with the return of warm weather.  Rather than hoping for a vaccine, there are many precautions a family can take to avoid the flu.

Cover your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze.  Wash your hands thoroughly and often.  Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.  Disinfect surfaces that other people touch.  And avoid crowds, particularly on cruise ships, which are breeding grounds for all types of infections.

I know those precautions sound trite.  But they are still the best protection from contracting the COVID-19 or any flu virus.  That is what the news media should be doing:  Educating the public instead of stirring up frenzied hysteria.  Fearmongers, not a virus,  are the biggest threat to America.