Top Ten Predictions For 2015

For those of you who need something to worry about in 2015, a lone forecaster is predicting the Icelandic volcano Bardarbunga is about to experience a cataclysmic eruption.  The earth-shattering blast will cloak Europe with toxic sulphur dioxide gases that will alter the continent's weather patterns.

As a result of the climate change, crops across Europe will suffer crippling loses.  That will lead to a doubling of grain prices worldwide, according to the soothsayer.  Of course, this could just be another outlandish prediction that will be buried in the ash heap of prophetic rubbish.

But that's part of the allure of forecasting.  Most people will have forgotten the annual predictions by the time February dawns on the calendar.  Secure in that knowledge, your faithful scribe issues his annual predictions for the coming year:

1.  Oil prices continue their downward spiral for at least the first quarter, slowing energy production and  hampering economic growth, but the overall impact will be mitigated somewhat by increases in consumer spending.  Some states, especially Texas and North Dakota, will be hurt by declining job growth.  However, retail sales tick upward before gas prices begin rising in the third quarter.

2. Continuing problems in Europe and China hinder U.S. economic expansion as trade erodes and the dollar strengthens.  For the seventh straight year, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of economic activity, fails to reach 3.0 percent for the year, finishing at an annual rate of 2.5 percent.

3.  Stock prices continue their roller coaster ride, dipping to new lows, before eclipsing record highs as economic disruption becomes the new world order.  Tech stocks, after soaring for most of 2014, come thumping back to earth as overvaluations catch up with reality.  The market finishes on an uptick as blue chips once again find favor with investors and the Dow-Jones ends near 18,850.

4. The U.S. Supreme Court issues a 5-4 ruling slapping the hands of the Obama Administration for improperly providing tax credits to consumers who purchased health insurance through federal exchanges.  The decision is a blow to Affordable Care Act because the tax credits are considered key to the law's success.

5.  New housing starts fail to reach 500,000 in the new year as the Fed adjusts interest rates upward and mortgage lenders continue to tighten borrowing guidelines.  Not only will mortgage rates climb for borrowers, but the rising cost of building materials will make new homes more expensive, delaying purchases by millennials.

6.  With falling oil prices and a weak currency, Russia's economy nosedives into dangerous territory, fueling speculation the country will default on some loans.  President Putin, feeling like a cornered rat, covertly orchestrates terrorist threats at home designed to enhance his standing as a tough leader in times of crisis and uses the imbroglio to interfere in Belarus.

7.  The cyber warfare between North Korea and the United States escalates after hackers shutdown a major stock exchange.  The action follows cyber attacks on major U.S. online retailers that expose the weakness of security at business firms throughout the country. There are hints the Chinese government may be helping North Korea carry out the attacks.

8.  The Apple Watch debuts in 2015 and the device redefines the market for health related personal information.  The device works with apps that monitor blood pressure, heart rate and body temperature.  The watches begin showing up on the arms of out-patients after surgery so doctors can remotely monitor their recovery.

9.  Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, after declaring she had no intention to run for president, enters the Democratic race after presumptive front-runner Hillary Clinton stumbles.  Behind the scenes, President Obama's former campaign staffers join forces with Warren, further widening the rift between the Clintons and the Obamas.

10.  President Obama issues an executive order that imperils the building of the Keystone Pipeline after the newly-installed Republican Congressional majorities green light the long-stalled project.  The action precipitates a major constitutional battle between the executive and legislative branch that ends up on the doorstep of the Supreme Court.

These bold predictions notwithstanding, 2015 promises to be a year overflowing with surprises and seismic shifts in economies, governments and currencies.  Let not your hearts be troubled. Embrace change, languish in the moments of calm and find laughter in life's ever shifting currents.