Monday, December 30, 2019

Top Ten Predictions For 2020

Futuristic predictions are notoriously goofed.  A glance in the rear view mirror of history illuminates the hazard of forecasting.  Consider in 1998 a well known futurist boldly prophesied that human life expectancy would rise to "over 100" by 2019.  He missed by a whopping 27.4 years.

In a 1994 book, a British commentator and editor foresaw the retirement age would inch up to age 70.  He was off by five years.  In the U.S. the average retirement age for men is 65 and 63 for women.  A few European countries have upped the retirement age to 67.

And there are more wrong-headed prognostications.  The International Food Policy Research Institute forecast 33 years ago that the world population would balloon to 8 billion by 2020.  Close but no cigar. The U.N. projects the world's population is 7.7 billion, a mere 300 million below the estimate.

One popular conjecture was the disappearance of paper books as consumers turned to wireless devices to devour their favorite novel.  That must be news to the U.S. book publishing industry which sold 675 million print books in 2018.  True, sales are declining, but readers aren't scrapping books.

Against this backdrop of conceited folly, your journalist once again boldy (some say egotistically) wades into the treacherous, murky waters of the future with predictions for 2020:

1.  The Dow Jones stock index soars to a record 30,000 in the first quarter before giving up ground in the third quarter to finish near 29,000 after business profits begin showing softness and global economies fail to meet market expectations. 

2.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of U.S. economic growth, defies forecasts by averaging 2.2 percent quarterly as consumer spending continues to spur the recent boom and recession fears evaporate.  Ninety percent of world economies lag behind U.S.  

3.  China's economy struggles to reach its former robust levels as more banks fail, consumer spending weakens and an increasing number of countries balk at investment because of human rights violations.  These developments compel China to make more concessions on U.S. trade.  

4.  The housing market, after a temporary slumber, awakens as the Fed dampens rate hike jitters triggering a 5 percent uptick in single family home starts, while inventory shrinks and prices for existing homes post single-digit gains, primarily in currently hot markets.  

5.   After much speculation, China launches a digital version of its currency, the Yuan, raising pressure on the United States to enter the digital currency age to maintain the dominance of the dollar as a worldwide currency.  The Treasury Department promises to "explore" the option. 

6.  American wireless firms, after trailing China's aggressive rollout, usher in the next generation wireless technology 5G with rapid deployment in more cities, but applications are a disappointment as handset manufacturers and network connected devices are slow to market.

7.   U.S. Attorney John Durham completes his investigation into FBI abuse regarding spying on Trump campaign and the abuse of FISA warrants, leading to indictments of senior Obama era officials, including John Brennan, James Comey and Andrew McCabe.  

8.  With birth rates falling in the U.S., American colleges and universities rethink higher education and begin reaching out to more than 49 million retirees in an effort to lure them back to campus by building senior housing and other amenities to offset dwindling enrollment.

9.  Early Democratic Party presidential primaries produce no clear frontrunner. Worried about beating President Trump, former President Barack Obama endorses a new entrant into the race, however, delegates to the convention in Milwaukee ultimately decide the nominee.    

10.  Articles of impeachment remain stalled in the House of Representatives as Democrats continue to scour for new charges to levy against President Trump.  Democrats launch new probes and adopt more articles as ammunition to defeat the president in the 2020 election.     

For readers who remain skeptical about your journalist's crystal ball wizardry, five of last year's predictions were absolutely on target, including the prophecy that Speaker Nancy Pelosi would initiate hearings for Articles of Impeachment after the Mueller Report produced no wrongdoing.

Now that you have been offered a glimpse of 2020, here's hoping you have The Best New Year Ever!  

Monday, December 23, 2019

Elves Stir Ruckus Jeopardizing Christmas

An impeachment inquiry has been scheduled for Christmas Day by a cadre of North Pole elves who want to oust Santa Claus from his position.  News of the development has left anxious children all over the world wondering if they will receive toys and gifts this year.

An investigation was announced by Alabaster Snowball, the administrator of the Naughty and Nice List that Santa Claus relies on to decide which child's behavior merits toys.  The diminutive Snowball claimed to have support from members of the Naughty and Nice Elf Committee.

At a hastily called hearing, Snowball alleged Santa secretly raised the behavioral standard to advantage kids with parents in the wealthiest one percent. Snowball revealed a whistleblower had overheard Santa making the request in a phone call to the Ukrainian born reindeer Blitzen.

Although Snowball did not divulge the identity of the whistleblower, Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer speculated the snitch was Wunorse Openslae, a disgruntled elf who serves on the committee. "Openslae has been hostile to Santa this entire year," Rudolph glowed with discontent.

Santa Claus took to social media to unleash a torrent of tweets slamming Snowball as a partisan hack.  "Snowball has concocted a Snow Job.  He's upset because he had to work overtime last year making toys because too many kids made the Nice List. Naughty SNOWBALL!," read one tweet.

The white-bearded Claus pledged to fulfill his Christmas duty by skipping the "sham" inquiry.  A defiant Claus told a news conference: "I will guarantee every kid: "If you like your gift, you can actually keep your gift." Some considered the quote a slap at Santa's cousin Obama Claus.

A few news reporters tried to goad the merry man into responding to catty comments from fashion designers about Mrs. Claus's dated red and white outfit and her ample figure.  "You journalists should look in the mirror before you body shame anyone," the roly-poly Claus retorted.

A reporter from the Washington Impeachment Post challenged Claus to release his medical records in light of reports about Claus' own weight gain.  "My personal physician, Dr. Shirley O. Bese, said I have the body of a 1,749-year old man," answered Claus, who became a legend in 270 A.D.

During the session with news members, angry environmentalists outside began waving signs proclaiming, "Santa Supports Dirty Coal!" A spokesperson for the group accused Santa of polluting the atmosphere by giving naughty kids a lump of coal in their Christmas stockings.

"We demand Santa pay a carbon tax if he is going to continue to use coal," the spokesperson told shivering bystanders.  The environmental protesters also pointed out Santa's sleigh was powered by reindeer, whose burping fouls the air across the world.

Donner was not amused.  "Count me as a burp denier," the reindeer harrumphed. "Santa feeds all his reindeer a vegan diet.  Now admittedly, a few order meals from Jenny Craig, but most of the reindeer are content to munch on plant food that tastes just like a Whopper."

Inside at the news briefing, a handful of illegal immigrants from the South Pole interrupted Claus and insisted their children deserved free toys at Christmas just like the local kids in North Pole.  The clump of aliens produced drivers licenses proving they were citizens of New Jersey.

Claus directed the immigrants to discuss the matter with Shinny Upatree, the elf charged with barcoding each toy with the recipient's address before it is loaded on Santa's sleigh on Christmas Eve.  Upatree appeared with two Icy Gents who ushered the immigrants out of the room.

With all the hullabaloo, Santa figured he needed to change the prevailing narrative.  He tugged an index card from the pocket of his red coat and began reciting his recent achievements. Reporters and bystanders listened as Claus ticked off a list that included a record stockings market.

"Ever since last Christmas, sales of stockings to be hung by fireplaces have soared.  The market is now up to 28,000 stockings for the year.  No one ever imagined sales would reach such heights," bragged Santa.  "And, I have added more jobs this year than any North Pole employer."

As the news conference was wrapping up, Santa wanted to have the last word.  He held up his fleshy arms to silence the media herd.  "I just want to leave you with two words:  'Merry Christmas!'," he bellowed as his belly shook like a bowl full of Jello.

For once the media mob fell silent.  No reporter objected.  A few promised to write flattering stories about Santa Claus.  Just kidding.  This whole last paragraph is Fake News.  But the remainder of the account is factually accurate as certified by the never reliable website Snopes. 

Monday, December 16, 2019

Memories of Christmases Past

Christmas always stirs memories of past family celebrations of this holy day.  Many of you likely have the same experience, especially as we gain the retrospection of many seasons.  There is something magical about retelling of our personal stories of long ago Christmases.

My earliest recollections are of Christmas visits to my grandparents, Gussie and Fernan Roy, in tiny Iota, Louisiana. My Mom and Dad would shoehorn seven kids and presents into our station wagon for the drive.  Christmas music played on the car radio.  Dad refereed the jostling kids in back.

Entering my grandparents house was a treat for the senses.  The scent of a freshly cut Christmas tree. Big bright colored bulbs and icicles were eye candy.  The tantalizing aroma of freshly baked cookies and fudge. The coziness of their house, warmed by gas space heaters with flickering flames.

That first evening of our arrival, my grandmother would nestle by the heaters and spin mesmerizing tales in her unique Cajun accent as her gaggle of grandchildren doted on every word.  The stories were ordinary small town anecdotes but recited in a very extraordinary way.

The lilt in her voice, the twinkle in her eyes, the love shining through her narrative.  I will always treasure memories of those tales, rich in cultural context and oozing with local color.    That storytelling talent has been lost in the clutter of our digital age of 132 characters.

Apologies for the digression. Uncles, aunts and cousins would arrive the next day.  The atmosphere was joyous, heartwarming.  Peels of laughter, cheerful smiles and rabid discussions of college football.  A bouquet of aromas filled the house as dinner was served on an long wooden table.

If I close my eyes, I can hear the grownup chatter around the table and smell the scent of the abundant trove of food.  Most of you are conjuring up your own dinner memories.  Few people today prepare an entire feast for the holiday because life's pressure cooker allows little leftover time.

Another Roy family tradition was a Christmas Eve junket to view outdoor decorations in our neighborhood and adjoining areas.  Dad was tour director for his wide-eyed brood, who giggled at his often feisty commentary.  At the end of one of these guided excursions, he announced to laughter:

"Next year, we are going to make a big sign and stick it in the front yard.  There will be a bright spotlight on the sign, which will read: 'We think your Christmas decorations stink, too!"  You had to know my Dad to fully appreciate his Cajun brand of humor.

My best Christmas gift from Santa Claus?  That's an easy one.  The year--I think I was six or seven--I discovered a Lionel electric train under the tree on Christmas morning.  The engine puffed smoke and tooted its whistle.  I grew woozy just watching it chug around the oval track for hours at a time.

In fact, Mom decided the train possessed sleep aid properties.  She would prop my brother Bob, a toddler at the time, in a chair and ask me to crank up the train.  After a few laps, he was sound asleep.  I never understood why Big Pharma did not patent Lionel Trains as a sleep drug.

After 73 Christmas mornings, there is one that stands out above all others.  The year was 1977 and our youngest son Derek had only recently entered the world on a snowy December 6 in frigid St. Louis.  He arrived in the midst of one of the worst blizzards in the city's history.

It was the first Christmas with both our sons Dean, 18 months, and Derek.  I can still see Dianna, snuggled in a robe, huddled next to the Christmas tree, clutching Derek in her arms while Dean gazed down at his brother.  The tenderness of that one moment reminded me of the meaning of Christmas.

Like Mary, Dianna cradled a newborn babe on Christmas Day.  Our small house was not fit for a King, nor was that manger more than 2,000 years ago.  It didn't matter.  Like Mary and Joseph, we were overjoyed at the sight of our new son, swaddled in a blanket on a shivering morning.

When things get hectic during the holidays, my thoughts drift to that Christmas.  The vivid memories keep me grounded in what is really important at Christmas.  It is not about the tree, the presents or even the twinkling lights.  Christmas is about the birth of a Son who would change the world.

Jesus remains the best gift every Christmas.

Monday, December 9, 2019

Christianity Under Attack Worldwide

The pious global news cartel has been strangely silent about the growing hostility towards Christians, especially in Muslim majority countries.  Undoubtedly, persecution of Christians does not fit the media's politically motivated narrative of Muslim victimhood, which explains the news blackout.

The latest Pew Research Center study confirms that Christian groups were harassed in 144 nations, a nearly 13 percent increase over the previous year.  Their findings are supported by United Kingdom sponsored research reporting cases of mushrooming violence against Christians.

The research documents that Christians, not Muslims, are most persecuted for their faith than any religious group on Earth.  Despite the evidence, the American media has been relentless in its coverage of China's repression of one million Uighur Muslims in China, triggering a U.S. response.

The Trump Administration recently weighed in, condemning the "brutal campaign of repression" against the Uighur minority.  Meanwhile, Christian minorities in Muslim countries such as Nigeria, are slaughtered by the thousands and driven from the homes without an official U.S. rebuke.

The media turns a blind eye to Christian massacres, beheadings and imprisonment.  Even Christian leaders, including the Catholic hierarchy, are too timid to sound the alarm, afraid the politically correct elitists and cultural luminaries will disapprove of their stance.

Their acquiescence has allowed the media and Muslim apologists to own the narrative about religious persecution.  Christians leaders must accept part of the blame for the ongoing exponential growth of government crackdowns on Christianity in virtually every corner of the globe.

For example, in 2017 China's President Xi Jinping approved new Draconian regulations clamping down on so-called "religious extremism."  In its wake, Christian leaders and members have been arrested. Many have been dispatched to "re-eduction" camps.  Official churches have been shuttered.

Despite the reprisals, religious organizations claim there remain tens of millions of underground churches that have eluded government detection.  Many of these "churches" are in private homes. President Xi now has those churches in his crosshairs in his scheme to end religious worship.

Despite China's very public move against Christianity the subject has never been broached in trade negotiations with the Communist regime.  The Christians in China have lacked support from global  governments because economic issues outweigh religious freedom considerations.

A report commissioned by the British Foreign Secretary this year delivered a somber warning that the pervasive persecution of Christians in many cases now amounts to genocide.  The report mentioned specifically the Middle East, where millions of Christians have suffered some of the worst horrors.

The UK report cites evidence of kidnappings, imprisonment and naked discrimination often driven by state authoritarianism.  Corrupt leaders of many countries tacitly sanction violence against Christian groups as a government policy, which emboldens its citizens to brutalize Christians.

In sync with these governments, Muslim religious leaders preach hate of Christians, especially in countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia.  The propaganda of bigotry reinforced by clerics creates a religious intolerance that spreads throughout a country, poisoning minds for generations. 

UK Secretary Jeremy Hunt added; "What we have forgotten in this atmosphere of political correctness is actually the Christians that are being persecuted are among the poorest people on the planet.  In the Middle East, the populations of Christians used to be about 20%; now it's 5%."

In majority Muslim countries, Christians are being forced to evacuate in droves.  The population of Palestinian Christians has dropped from 15% to 2%.  In the Middle East and north Africa, the population has fallen to less than 4%.  This is a deliberate form of genocide that has been ignored.

Even the research data does not adequately capture the brutality of crimes against Christians.  On Easter Sunday in Sri Lanka, 250 people were killed by suicide bombers. In Egypt and Libya, Christians have been beheaded, their homes burned to the ground and their churches desecrated.

Journalists have reported 47 documented cases of desecration of churches in France this year.  In Germany, three-fourths of resettled Christian refugees report they have been persecuted by Muslim immigrants. The number of attacks on Catholic churches in Europe has spiraled 25 percent this year.

Christian religious leaders must start demanding global action. They also have a duty to motivate billions of their followers worldwide to spur their governments to be accountable for religious freedom.  Pray the leaders don't dally so long there are no more Christians left to save.

Monday, December 2, 2019

Schiff Show: Weaponizing Impeachment

Democrats have detonated the equivalent of a political nuclear bomb with their relentless impeachment "inquiries."  Whether they realize it or not, the fallout from their tactics will assure a mushroom cloud of partisanship,  leaving in its wake destruction of America's chance for unity.

After the special counsel investigation conducted by Robert Mueller failed to produce evidence of an impeachable offense, Democrats could have left the fate of President Trump in the hands of voters in next year's election.  But they decided Americans could not be trusted with the decision.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, after months of sidestepping the issue, signaled she had surrendered to her party's progressive, socialist wing.  Impeachment of the president was greenlighted.  Rep. Adam Schiff was anointed the impeacher-in-chief as head of the House Intelligence Committee.

In past impeachment proceedings, the House Judiciary Committee had taken the lead, but Pelosi had not been impressed with chairman Jerry Nadler's recent performances.  Several top Democrats privately expressed their lack of confidence in Nadler.  That's how it became the Schiff Show.

And what a disaster it was.  Schiff began by announcing with much fanfare that a whistleblower would provide damning evidence of a quid-pro-quid deal between President Trump and his counterpart in the Ukraine.  Schiff claimed the whistleblower overheard a call between the leaders.

Then Mr. Trump released a transcript of the call.  The president of Ukraine made it clear there was no offer from the president to exchange information on Joe Biden and his son Hunter for American arms.  That never stopped Schiff from daily proclaiming new "bombshell" evidence.

The California Democrat interviewed witnesses in secret with a few Republicans present before trotting them out before his committee's public hearings.  Not a single "witness" ever heard first hand Mr.Trump offer a quid-pro-quid deal to the Ukrainian president. The hearings were a resounding flop.

Meanwhile, Speaker Pelosi vacillated almost daily about what "crimes" were being uncovered by her hand-picked impeacher.  She claimed Mr. Trump was guilty of quid-pro-quid.  But focus group testing revealed the obvious: the overwhelming majority of Americans had no idea of its meaning.

Then the speaker's narrative switched to "bribery," an easily understood sleazy description.  However, there was no proof.  Her terminology flipped again.  This time Mr. Trump was guilty of "extortion."  That didn't fly either.  Her latest: "Naked betrayal of American interests." Another wolf cry.

Nothing seemed to stick so the speaker has switched horses, handing Rep Nadler the reins for his own impeachment farcical hearings.  Any Americans paying attention are bored, cynical and antipathetic.  Impeachment has lost its seriousness as a legitimate exercise of the legislative branch.

The Democrats have succeeded in turning impeachment into a political instrument to bludgeon those the party opposes.  Even the most partisan Democrat must surely recognize this will backfire next time the Republicans control the house with a Democrat in the Oval Office.

The opening of this pandora's box will be akin to former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's use of the "nuclear option" which emboldened Republicans to adopt it to thwart Democrats.  Likewise,
future commanders in chief will face the chilling prospect of impeachment, warranted or not.

Some Democrats may be shaking their heads and muttering: "Yeah, what about the impeachment of Bill Clinton?  It was purely political!"  They are, in this writer's opinion, correct.  But at least Republicans followed the norms of judicial protocol, transparency and Congressional procedure.

The sitting attorney general Janet Reno, an appointee of President Clinton, authorized the special counsel.  Prosecutor Ken Starr submitted his report and 18 boxes of supporting documents to the House of Representatives.  The House Judiciary Committee released 3,000 pages of evidence.

The Judiciary Committee conducted public hearings, recommended impeachment and the entire House voted 258-176 to authorize an impeachment inquiry.  None of those steps have been taken in this latest attempt by Democrats to overturn the 2016 election by impeaching Mr. Trump.

The lens of history will not be kind to Democrats for this sham process and it will render future inquiries nothing more than partisan political payback.  This will increase rancor between the parties, render bipartisanship utterly futile and sow more discord between Americans of opposing views. 

In the 243 year history of the U.S., only two presidents have been formally impeached by Congress.  No president has been removed from office by impeachment.  It is a grave undertaking that should only be invoked in the rarest of cases instead of being used as a political weapon of mass destruction.