Monday, April 27, 2020

Why Data Is Critical To Arresting Coronavirus

An increasing number of scientific studies shedding new light on the Coronavirus are raising doubts about previous assertions the pandemic is far deadlier than seasonal flu.  While it is still too early to make a definitive call, the evidence should trigger a reassessment of how data is compiled.

The studies, conducted by two universities and New York, reveal far more people may have contracted the virus than official reports of confirmed cases.  In Los Angeles County, for example, a sample discovered an infection rate 40 times more than the cases reporting from testing results.

For some, the research will not sway their opinions about the steps taken by the government to deal with COVID-19.  But data matters when a nation is dealing with an infectious respiratory virus.  Without credible data, how can hospitals and states act responsibility to take precautionary measures?

An analogy would be investing in the stock market with limited or contradictory data about listed firms.  Inevitably it would lead to poor decisions, the kind that empty your bank account.  In much the same way, data is the most important tool for effectively dealing with a pandemic.

Let's start with the three recently released studies.  A study from the Stanford University School of Medicine as of April 1 found that infection rates for northern California were 55 times higher than the official confirmed cases count.  The study was based on 3,000 blood samples taken from volunteers.

The samples were tested for antibodies to COVID-19 using a test made by Euroimmun.  Based on the data and modeling estimates, the researchers estimated that the infection fatality rate was between 0.1% and 0.2%.  The death rate for seasonal influenza in the U.S. is 0.1%.

Another study released by University of Southern California (USC) unearthed similar results.  Using parallel methodology to the Stanford study, researchers estimated the number of infected people in Los Angeles County may have been 28 to 55 times higher than the reported confirmed cases.

On the heels of these findings, New York Gov. Anthony Cuomo announced the state's first survey shows that 13.9% of those tested had Coronavirus antibodies in their system, meaning they had contracted the virus and recovered.  That suggests 2.7 million people statewide had been infected.

That number is far higher than 134,824 cases that had been reported at the time the governor made the results public.  What this study and the two from California suggest is that virus is not as lethal as has been previously reported by health officials but is far more infectious than scientists suspected.

Another factor raises suspicions about current data.  Some states are counting COVID-19 deaths differently than others.  For instance, the Pennsylvania State Health Secretary reduced the fatality toll by 200 in a single day.  The official reason was to reduce "confusion" around the death count.

A California scientist believes some states are diagnosing patients with the virus AFTER they have entered the hospital for another disease.  If the patient succumbs, the cause of death may be the virus or the underlying disease.  It is a judgment call based on no universal standards.

For perspective, in the 2017-2018 flu season, 79,400 people died. There were 48.8 million people infected, requiring 959,000 to be hospitalized.  Those numbers are higher than today's COVID-19 figures. No one should take comfort, however, because COVID-19 continues to spread.

Now that research is piling up the scientific models produced by experts are quietly disappearing from the Internet.  The one estimate that sparked the panic predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S.  This same model projected 500,000 fatalities in the United Kingdom.

It was done by a respected authority, Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London.  Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered a lockdown of the country based on this data.  This is why credible data matters. It drives decision making.

As data evolves, we are seeing a familiar influenza pattern.  Exactly 80% of the deaths have been people 65+ years. The highest percentage are those 85+. Those 65 and older are 22 times more likely to die of the virus than those 55 and under, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Deaths in nursing homes and long-term care facilities for the elderly haven't generally been tracked by the CDC or other health organizations, which is odd considering the first outbreak occurred in a nursing home outside Seattle. The Wall Street Journal investigated and uncovered startling details.

At least 4,800 nursing home facilities in the country have been hit by the virus, the Journal reported. The number of people infected, including residents and staff, totals more than 56,000.
The number of deaths at nursing homes and long-term care facilities have topped 10,000.

In some states, the nursing home deaths account for most fatalities.  In Minnesota the Journal reported a state health care spokesperson acknowledged that 131 of its 179 total deaths were linked to long-term care facilities.  In Massachusetts, 55% of COVID-19 victims were nursing home residents.

The Journal's numbers were developed by contacting state officials across the country.  Many states did not have the data.  It begs the question:  "How can you stop a pandemic when there is no data to document where urgent testing needs to be concentrated?"  There is no excuse for the lapse.

There are other statistics that have not appeared in any media that offer perspective.  These may surprise some of you because it illuminates a different way to view this virus and its impact:

Percentage of Americans of who have died from the virus: 0.0001352602033%
Percentage of Americans with confirmed cases of the virus:  0.00243353907%

That means 99.9% of Americans have escaped infection and death. The news media would infer your writer takes the current pandemic too lightly.  Facts do not represent an opinion.  If facts offend people, then the country is lost.  Today's journalists fight facts with anecdotal evidence.

There are breaking news alerts each time pandemic fatalities cross another milestone number.  Someone should be asking: "Is this more deaths than previous pandemics?" It is akin to reporting traffic deaths monthly without any comparison to previous years.  Context is essential.

And finally: Percentage of all U. S. confirmed cases in just three states: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut:  45.3% By demanding tests in every state, precious testing kits were dispatched elsewhere when the most pressing needs were in three states. Facts matter in allocating resources.

In times of crisis, the country needs more data, facts and analysis.  If these outbreak teaches the country nothing else, it should be that we need accurate, standardized data collection and improved modeling.  These are essential for policy makers to conceive informed decisions.

Monday, April 20, 2020

Reopen Economy To Save American Lives

Now's the time for the American economy to be unplugged from the ventilator.  Without decisive action, the U.S. will plunge into the abyss of an economic depression that will ruin far more lives than Covid-19.  The longer the lockdown continues the country risks plummeting into financial ruin.

There are growing signs that Americans are fed up with the quarantine.  Protests are popping up in many cities.  For example, in Michigan thousand gathered to protest sweeping restrictions imposed by the governor.  Americans yearn to return to their jobs.  Politicians are starting to take notice.

A growing number of governors are contemplating reopening for business. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has announced a gradual plan to allow workers to return by Friday.  If it happens, there will be domino effect across the country.  States that remain shutdown will face criticism from voters. 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has raised impossible hurdles to any lifting of the lockdown.  She and other Democrats are demanding a "guarantee of a safe world" before returning to normalcy.  No doctor, scientist or politician can make such a guarantee.  The world, by nature, is not a safe place.

Governors understand better than Pelosi the inherent risks. They are staring at data that suggests an economic Armageddon will bankrupt their states. Even states whose economy was booming before the outbreak are not immune from an epic disaster for their workers.

At the current pace, COVID-19 will trigger the worst economic collapse in U.S. history.  Whole industries are on life support:  Travel, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, oil, hotels, tourist operators, cruise lines, conventions, food and beverage service and virtually every small business in America.

Small businesses under 500 workers, which employ half of the American workforce, are particularly vulnerable.  Most operate on a razor's edge between profitability and insolvency. The new Small Business Administration loan program will help cover some expenses but only about 50%.

Loans will not cover payments due suppliers, maintenance and loan repayments from previous borrowing. By some estimates, these small businesses generate 44% of the country's Gross Domestic Product, a measurement of economic output.  Many are in danger of permanent closure. 

Corporate furloughs are at historic levels.  Macy's has furloughed most of its 125,000 workers.  Boeing plans "voluntary" layoffs to slice its 160,000 workforce.  Walt Disney has furloughed 43,000 employees.  J.C. Penny is cleaving most of its 85,000 workforce. Furloughs will soon turn to layoffs.

The Department of Labor calculated a record-shattering 22 million Americans have applied for unemployment in the last four weeks.  For perspective, at the worst of the Great Depression there were 15 million unemployed.  In the 2008 financial meltdown, unemployment peaked at 9 million.

The current situation is unprecedented in American history. A stunning 13.25% of the workforce has disappeared from the rolls of the employed.  The country is losing 33,000 jobs every hour of every day right now.  Based on unofficial figures, experts estimate the current unemployment rate is 16%.

Unemployment is the tip of the iceberg.  Credit card companies and banks are holding their collective breaths in the face of a expected wave of defaults.  These institutions are extending credit for now, but at some point, borrowers will be required to repay.  Economic freefall will make it impossible.

At this juncture, household and business debt are already at historic highs.  Delinquency on student and auto loans is skyrocketing.  The spectre of a financial pandemic is real.  If you thought the last $700 billion government bailout in 2008 was unfathomable, just wait a few more months.

Economists are predicting the Gross Domestic Product will shrink by 25%-to-50% in the second quarter.  Any rebound depends on consumer spending, which represents about 68%-72% of the economy.  Bloated unemployment data offers little hope for an uptick in consumer spending.

That's causing hand wringing among states because economic decline equals less tax revenue.  An economic collapse will force steep government budget cuts. An even larger issue is state worker pension funds, estimated at $1.2 trillion in obligations.  Most state plans are underfunded now.

The American financial system is precariously nearing the precipice. Even the U.S. government cannot print enough money to paper over the looming disaster that will all but render a recovery a moot point.  These are dire times but most Americans are unaware of the scale of the consequences.

All the focus in the media has been on the toll of the virus and rightly so.  But workers have been forgotten in the stampede to staunch the virus.  No one appears concerned about what will happen to everyday, ordinary Americans.  This has been deliberate, especially by the mainstream media.

The nation is in uncharted territory.  The U.S. has never, repeat never, voluntarily shuttered business activity, even in world wars or during past pandemics.  Those experts predicting a sudden, rapid economic recovery are fool hearted.  A long, painful road awaits the economy and its workers.

No one, certainly not this journalist, is underestimating the risks of opening up America.  Precautions need to be in place: testing kits, thermometers, masks, appropriate distancing.  The timing should be dictated by scientific and economic experts, not by politically motivated guidelines in newspapers.

In states where the virus is scarcely present, people should be allowed to go back to work, open up shops and congregate in churches.  Wyoming, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and South Dakota come to mind. On the other hand, New York and California may need months before normalcy returns.

Some will read this and assume your writer has no empathy for the sick and dying.  Believe as you wish.  The real concern here is that by continuing a lockdown America will be forcing millions more than this virus affected to suffer lost of jobs, homes, cars, life savings, credit access and more.

Yet some politicians are huffing the country needs to remain in quarantine until a vaccine is readily available.  That could be months or even more than a year away based on the record of vaccine development for previous coronavirus contagions.  In a year, there will be no American economy.

Presidential candidate Joe Biden famously said this: "We need to accelerate the development and treatment (sic) of a vaccine.  Science takes time."  The nation does not have time to wait on the FDA and scientists to plod along using endless trials before approving any new drug or vaccine.

No one can deny there are risks to resuming commerce.  A second wave of virus cases.  A spike in hospitalizations.  Fatalities may continue.  There simply is no way to erase every risk no matter what criteria the nation uses for business resumption.  Even a zillion tests will not eliminate every risk. 

This isn't a choice between commerce and saving lives as some would construct it.  This is a choice about the best way to spare lives and prevent unparalleled economic agony.  It is not an either or proposition as politicians suggest.  Why can't we have both? We have done it before.

Of course, when the initial state resumes business the media will pounce on the first virus death that occurs.  The cry will be the governor has "blood on her (or his) hands."  This hyper partisan nation knows no shame. Ignore the politicians and media invested in promoting economic bondage. 

When this virus recedes into history, the prediction here is a day of reckoning is coming when American anger turns on politicians, especially governors and mayors who dictated arbitrary  restrictions that defied common sense.  The uproar will be thunderous and will have repercussions.

Monday, April 13, 2020

Will the Pandemic Spark a Spiritual Reawakening?

December 8 the world awoke to the news of the first reported case of Covid-19 in Wuhan, China.  Few experts at that time could have forecast a cataclysmic pandemic that would kill thousands, swamp hospitals, exhaust medical supplies and pulverize world economies.

Facts dribbled out of the Communist regime like water from a melting glacier.  A month passed before scientists, immunologists, health organizations and political leaders understood the demon that had been unleashed.  Each new detail fueled public panic, stark fear, uncertainty and hopelessness.

In the wake of past calamitous disasters, Americans usually have rediscovered God.  Chastened by the horrors of World War II, church attendance skyrocketed.  A Gallup survey reported three-out-of-four Americans were members of a house of worship.  People rediscovered peace in God.

Even after the memory of the war began to fade, nationwide attendance at worship services spiked at a faster rate than the population during the 1950's.  Membership in churches and synagogues doubled.  It was no coincidence the words "under God" were added to the Pledge of Allegiance then.

After the horrendous attacks of 9/11, houses of worship were jammed that evening as Americans cued up to grieve and pray.  Citizens organized their own candlelight and prayer vigils.  There was a somber fog that cloaked  the country, compelling many of us to reexamine our own lives

However, after a few weeks, attendance at worship services lapsed into normalcy.  We retreated to our former ways, comforted by new security measures that made us feel safe again.  God was no longer needed.   

In troubled times, we confront the fragility of life.  The certainty that we too will die.  The illusion that we control our circumstances is shattered.  We come to grips with how trivial some of our concerns have been in light of the precarious nature of life itself. 

These dark days beg for a beacon.  A lamp to guide us through the valley of death and despair.  In the best of times, we find solace in life's pleasures.  We are distracted by what our eyes see rather than the whispered yearning in our hearts for the Creator.  Perhaps, this devastating virus will alter that.

Many Americans are ripe for a reawakening.  Weekly attendance at houses of worship is plunging.  Pew research found 37% of us attend a synagogue or church weekly.  Nearly one-in-three people seldom or never take part in worship services.  Those numbers are rising annually.

Diving deeper into the research, even people with religious affiliations find reasons to avoid worship services.  The majority (37%) cite personal issues with the church, including disagreements with religious beliefs or with church leadership.  Around 16% say they are just too busy.

Others mention personal priorities prevent them from attending.  They specify work conflicts, health problems or transportation difficulties.  This is no judgment about why people choose not to attend.  Obviously, they are valid justifications that make worship attendance impossible.

Let's stipulate at this point regular worship attendance does not make someone a "good" person. That is judgmental.  But there are other signs, besides worship attendance, that signal a glacial shift in America's once sacred tradition of honoring God in private and public places.

The Ten Commandments are forbidden in courthouses.  Crosses have been removed as offensive.  Prayer in public schools is taboo.  Courts have decreed rules passed by Congress trump religious rights.  Bans on public Nativity scenes.  Subpoenas for pastors who oppose homosexuality.

For decades, there has been a secular campaign to strip America of any vestige or symbol of the Creator.  There have been a few courageous religious organizations that have battled the tide.  But truthfully there has been mostly benign acceptance.  A shrug.  A silent resignation.

Will Americans, shaken by the reality of our risky universe, stand up for religious liberty? Will they will again flock to houses of worship?  Will they become kinder, more compassionate, less selfish and lift their voices in praise of God?

If not now, when?

We have endured the agony of being separated from loved ones drawing their last breath.  Funerals are cancelled by social distancing, aggravating inconsolable grief.  Human lives have been reduced to government statistics. Numbing isolation threatens our collective mental health.

During the outbreak, Americans have placed their faith in scientists and the government.  The common plea is for a miracle vaccine that will chase the virus into oblivion.   God is nowhere in the public discussion. We should first and foremost focus our faith in God, the ultimate miracle worker.

If anything good can emerge from these virus, a revival of faith would be a welcome outcome.  This abhorrent virus won't be he last microbe to scourge the world.  Future ones might be worse.  Let's not wait for the next global affliction or terrorist strike to turn toward our Creator in faithful worship.  

Monday, April 6, 2020

Surgeons: Medical Profession's Gunslingers

Eight days before my long-overdue hip replacement operation the surgeon scrubbed the procedure.  The C-word virus was blamed for the hasty decision.  It was unexpected since my operation was to be performed at a surgical hospital with no other patients.  That's the new reality we live in.

The way the news was communicated to me is typical of surgeons.  An underling called to deliver the devastating revelation.  Having dealt with three surgeons in the last three years, I have discovered these brilliant medical specialists are a peculiar breed like none other in the profession.

I compare them to gunslingers in the old Western movies I grew up watching.  They are brusque, closed-mouthed, unsociable but darn good at what they do best.  They ride to the rescue wielding scalpels when duty calls.  But you wouldn't want your daughter to ride a horse with one. 

For one thing, surgeons are never on time.  If you schedule an office visit with a surgeon, the time you were given is just a guess on when he or she might show up.  Like a dope, I arrived early for appointments only to wait an hour or more.  Do these people not own watches?

Surgeons always have an excuse for their tardiness.  "Hey, sorry about the delay, but I was just finishing sewing up a patient in OR," they will plead.  What are you supposed to say?  "Hey doc, sounds like a job for an intern?"  Too insensitive.  You just politely nod and grit your teeth.

Even the day of surgery you can expect a delay.  I was summoned to arrive 5 a.m. for my neck fusion.  The surgery was scheduled for 8:30 a.m.  I twiddled my thumbs and drank vodka tonics until almost 11 a.m. before being wheeled into the operating room.  At least I didn't need anesthesia. 

Unlike primary care doctors, surgeons have the bedside manner of a butcher at your local grocer  meat department. They whisk into the exam room during your first appointment seemingly in a big rush.  They rattle off scant details about the surgery.  Then sprint to the adjoining exam room.

You are left dumbfounded staring at the diagrams of anatomical views of hips on their exam room walls. Any questions you have are left for a medical assistant or some temp at the front desk.  I scoured the web for most answers, where I found a trove of information that was helpful.

And if you ever have a second appointment before the surgery, don't expect the surgeon to remember your name or case particulars.  They can only identify you by an X-Ray.  If you have a chance meeting with your surgeon at a party, carry an X-Ray with you just in case.

My least favorite tactic of surgeons is when they ask about your pain level.  Some have charts on their exam room walls with Smiley Faces ranging from Happy to Teary Grimace.  I never know how to translate my pain into a Smiley Face.  What a ridiculous, sophomoric tool.

If surgeons are going to insist on some visual aid, then I have a suggestion. Use photos of animals.  For example, a lion would be a symbol you feel like a king.  A skunk would infer you are feeling stinky. For pain that is at neither end of that spectrum, how about a goat?  Preferably an old one.

And, while I am on a rant, can we just all agree that surgeon's offices should no longer use an automated answering system?  The first option always is: "If this is a medical emergency, please hang up and call 9-1-1."  This is demeaning because it suggests you are too stupid to know that.

If I am laying in a heap on the floor a home, I darn sure am not calling a surgeon's office where I will have to listen to 42-voice prompts before I get dumped into a recording.  Give me a break.  I would be shaking hands with St. Peter by then.   Loose the 9-1-1 message and hire a real human.

Let's face it.  Surgeons view patients as just another lumpy body that allows they to do what they enjoy best.  Cutting open people with sharp objects and probing their innards.  Who likes a job that involves blood?  I grew faint dissecting fetal pigs in college biology.  Humans?  No way.

My suggestion is that if you are forced to see a surgeon do fact finding in advance.  Does he have a personality?  Has she ever spoken in complete sentences?  Does his photo online feature a prominent furrowed brow?  Who cares if she is board certified?  Give me a surgeon who smiles occasionally.

In hindsight, I guess being somber is a good quality for a surgeon.  After all, you don't want your surgeon  putting a whoopee cushion underneath your bottom just before drawing a scalpel from the holster on his hip. The anesthesiologist might unleash a belly laugh and forget to put you under.